elis' revenge?

[loophole]

looks like i have the day off with very little to cap, but i do have some interest in yale tonight to get even for last week's ot loss to brown in new haven. yale leads the ivy league in fg% at .478, yet shot less tha 40% against brown; don't look for that to repeat. also elis' leading scorer dominick martin was limited to 14 second-half minutes because of a sore ankle. with martin back at full speed tonight, yale should really dominate inside against brown's four guard offense - yale beat them on the boards last week with martin on the bench most of the game. power numbers suggest brown should be around a four point favorite, o the linesmaker appears to be trolling for brown players.


okay superbook, bear, box and one, and the rest of you ivy league buffs, let's hear your take on this one.

 

[bjfinste]

No way in hell Yale shoots that bad again IMO.

 

[Blackman]

My Thoughts...

My Thoughts...

I'm a bit afraid of Yale - lost 7 of their last 8, and the only win came against DIII Old Westbury. I do expect them to shoot better in this one, and Brown is no prize either - but I'd tread lightly with this one. Brown is 8-2 in their last ten against Yale ATS - which can't be ignored.

Just playing devils advocate a bit, slow capping day so I thought I'd throw it out there.

GL tonight.

 

[loophole]

good point blackman; on the other hand, i think in most of those covers brown was the dog. brown failed to cover in this season's only other game where they were the fav - a three point home loss to wright state. and theres still the issue of the short line.


other thoughts?

 

[bjfinste]

No guru here, but going into the Brown game last week, Yale's losses have come against team's with a combined record of 82-26 (I think that was the number). They pissed away control of the Brown game on several occassions while putting forth their worst performance of season from the field. That's why I like the Bulldogs- if they just shoot near what they are capable of, they should win. Brown is a flat-out bad team, and this time they aren't getting 9 points. Again, no guru, but that's what I like.

 

[IE]

column from yaledailynews:






Published Friday, January 23, 2004
Bulldogs must slow down game

BY ALEX HETHERINGTON


Brown vs. Yale



Prediction:

Yale 70, Brown 64



Backcourt:

Brown's Jason Forte certainly won round one last Friday with his 26-point, six-rebound, and four-assist performance that earned him Ivy League Player of the Week honors. The returning first-team All-Ivy point guard will be the best player on the floor this Friday, but his partner, Mike Martin, doesn't add much to the mix. Martin scored just three points in his 40 minutes last Friday and has not looked to shoot much during the majority of the season to date.

Yale's starting backcourt of Alex Gamboa '05 and Edwin Draughan '05 is far more balanced. Gamboa averages 8.3 points per game to go with his team-leading 4.4 assists. Draughan is the second most prolific scorer on the Bulldog squad with 11.4 points each contest.

Draughan and Gamboa were outclassed last Friday as the duo shot a combined four for 21. If they can match Forte -- and just make sure Martin doesn't suddenly come up with a productive offensive game -- Yale should be in good shape.

Edge: Even



Frontcourt:

Yale has to win this battle if they are to come out of Providence with a victory. Fortunately for the Elis, they have the definite advantage. Even a hobbled Dominick Martin '05 still came up with 10 points and seven rebounds in only 16 minutes of action. Paul Vitelli '04 torched Brown for 22 points and nine rebounds, including seven on the offensive end.

Yes, the Bears' Jaime Kilburn is a decent replacement for departed All-Ivy center Alai Nuualiitia -- his 22 points and two blocks proved that. But if Justin Simon '04 plays the way he normally does, and not how he did last Friday, and Yale's Martin is healthy, the duo should be able to get Kilburn in foul trouble. Frankly, it didn't look like Brown could do a whole lot to keep Yale off the glass or to keep Martin's half-hook from the basket.

There is, of course, Patrick Powers and his 3-point daggers, which crushed the Elis in last weekend's overtime. Powers was four of eight from deep and finished with 21 points. But whatever he is, he's far from Earl Hunt, whose position he has taken over this season, and is not as good a shooter as he seemed to be on Friday. For the year, Powers is shooting 36 percent from 3-point range, averaging 13.1 points per game, and converting a mere 39 percent of his field goals.

Edge: Yale



Keys to the game:

Yale should make an effort to get Brown's starters, particularly the team's big men, into foul trouble. Why? Yale has the far superior bench.

This is a no-brainer, as it often is with Yale's squad. Whether having a bench that is so involved in the game is good or not is open for debate. But no one can deny that the Elis are deeper than most Ivy League squads.

Brown is no exception. The Bears, in fact, epitomize bench deficiency as witnessed by the fact that only six Brown players logged over seven minutes against Yale.

No turnovers! As my high school basketball coach used to write on the blackboard before every game, "TCB" ? Take Care of the Ball. I always used to think that was easier said than done, but there are steps the Elis can take to avoid costly turnovers.

It pains me to say it, but Yale should slow the game down. With Brown weak inside, the primary offensive options have to be Martin, Vitelli, and Simon. Even though a good number of Yale's turnovers come from the half-court set, a slower tempo might calm the Elis and make each possession more meaningful.

 

[IE]

If Bears best Elis again, say sayonara to Ivy title




I'm trying to stay optimistic about Ivy League title hopes, but it's hard in the wake of the men's basketball 85-75 loss to Brown last Friday. After a dismal performance over winter break, the Ivy League opener was the Bulldogs' chance to regain their early season form and begin a run at the NCAA Tournament. Instead, the team is off to an 0-1 start in conference play and is in desperate need of a major turnaround.

The Brown loss was awful. In pre-season rankings, many picked Yale to win the Ivy League while Brown was a middle-of-the-pack team at best.

Overall, Friday's loss was a disastrous performance. The most frustrating part for me was all the missed chances around the basketball. I'd estimate around a dozen lay ups were blown -- more than a few uncontested.

Only two players really stood out, and they're both local products. First, Casey Hughes looked really quick, with a pair of steals and blocks and a dunk that energized the crowd. Unfortunately, the other impressive player was part of the halftime show, a three-and-a-half-foot kid with an And 1 mixed tape handle. We need to start recruiting now.

Ok, maybe that's not fair. Dominick Martin deserves a lot of credit for energizing the team in the second half after sitting out the first half with an ankle injury. Matt Minoff had an all around solid game with 15 points, seven boards and five assists, while Paul Vitelli set a career high with 22 points, but was most impressive on the offensive glass. Other than that, there weren't a lot of positives to take away from the defeat.

Some of the problems that have continually plagued this team were apparent in the loss. The inability to defend quickness was obvious in the manner Jason Forte took over the game at the end of regulation and in overtime. The offense's stagnation, especially in crunch time, is perturbing. Nobody is spurred into action until the shot clock starts winding down. Everyone seems to have the paralyzed terror of a deer in headlights or of Nancy Pelosi stammering her way through the response to the State of the Union.

The scary thing is that this season is shaping up similarly to last year's disappointment. Last season began with high expectations after an Ivy title in 2002. Yale opened with strong showings in losing efforts on the road at Oklahoma State and Wake Forest, before a five-game win streak that included a thrilling overtime victory over Manhattan at Madison Square Garden. But over break the team had a difficult schedule playing quality teams on both coasts, losing four games in a row. After a cupcake win over RPI, losses to Brown in Yale's first two Ivy games shattered hopes of reaching the NCAA Tournament.

So far, this year is a close parallel. Similarly high expectations were only elevated by keeping the game at No.1 UConn close. Once again, everything looked good going into December, before the wheels fell off with a six-game losing streak leading into Ivy League play. And then further humbling by Brown. A repeat of 2003 with another loss in Providence tonight would be devastating, especially leading into huge home games against Penn and Princeton next weekend.

What is the reason for these collapses? Was the strength of schedule before league play too taxing? I don't think so. You have to play good teams to get better, and the travel schedule was easier this season.

Or is this just a team dealing with inflated expectations on the basis of one good year in 2001-02? Was a share of the Ivy championship a fluke this team will never be able to live up to?

I don't believe it. On paper, this team belongs in the NCAA Tournament. It's true. Last year, Holy Cross made it to the Big Dance and gave Marquette, a team that went to the Final Four, a close 72-68 call. Manhattan was also in the tourney, battling eventual champion Syracuse in the first round. Yale beat both Holy Cross and Manhattan last season. Playing close games against big programs like Oklahoma State, Wake Forest, and UConn only proves that this team is for real.

Coach Jones wasn't wrong after the UConn game when he said his team could make the NCAA Tournament and even win some games in March Madness. It could still happen. After all, the Bulldog squad that won a share of the Ivy title in 2002 opened league play with a loss to Brown. Last Friday's loss, no matter how disappointing, was only one game.

But if Yale can't post a win at Brown tonight, the Bulldogs' only chances for wins in March will be road games against Cornell and Columbia that will conclude another dismal season.