saturday ncaa..............

[gman2]

that gonzaga o146 jam job could prove ominous for the weekend. if so -- caveat emptor:

===================================

(strong) illinois-chicago (-9) over wisc-green bay
*just not sold on uwgb. theyve improved, but
theyve had a very favorable schedule to this
point. theyve played 3 good teams all year and
they were blasted in all 3.
*milwaukee, detroit, ill-chicago 3 best horizon
teams in my opinion
*flames have been starting to turn it up at home
lately (L4 home wins have been by avg of 17 pts)
*chicago swing is always the toughest road trip
in the horizon. even elite teams have trouble
putting back-to-back solid efforts together. 2 gms
in 3 nights and the tougher team on the back
end for green bay

===================================

tulsa (+6.5) over fresno state
*fresno coming off a heartbreaking loss. tough
losses like the one they suffered vs rice tend to
linger longer than they should.
*tulsa has had good success in this series.
*tulsa has won 4 of the L5 outright
*love the bulldogs talent, and lopes is getting
them to play solid defense, but fresno just never
seems to get it done in this kind of spot. theyre
always going to be a better dog than chalk

===================================

st.bonaventure (+14.5) over st.joseph
*bonnies have been enigmatic this year, but one
thing theyve done is play well at home. they had
a rough stretch where they lost 6 of 7, but those
6 losses were all on the road (and to a lot of very
good teams)
*bonnies solid free throw shooting team (top 3
scorers are all 76%+)
*this series has been high-scoring, but very
tightly contested. i know theres been roster
turnover at bonaventure, but still think this past
series history is significant. only 2 of the L9 in this
series have been decided by more than 7 points.

===================================

pepperdine (-8.5) (write-up below)

===================================

 

[gman2]

also, just some things that some could benefit from in some other games:

* kudos to ohio state coach jim o'brien. finally got fed up with tony stockman's bullshit and took a stand on it. stockman wont be making the trip to iowa for the game on saturday.
http://www.cleveland.com/sportsflas...KC--OhioSt-Stockman&&sports&buckeyebasketball

*figured this could be helpful. updated mac team and individual statistics:
http://mac-sports.ocsn.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/confldrs.html

*same thing: horizon league team and individual statistics:
http://www.horizonleague.org/0,5691,1_1162_0_47505,00.html

 

[I'm Storming]

Whats up Gman... What do you think about Butler -6 tomorrow? Line's a little shocking with Wright St's strong play, Butler's loss to Youngstown State and Butler's 39 pt performance vs Wright earlier in the season..... Being the big Butler man you are, would be interested to hear your take... Thanks.

 

[gman2]

storming:

cant say im surprised by the line. i guess from just watching so much horizon league ball, its like you can chalk up butler and detroit as home favs no matter how theyre playing, simply because their respective home court edges are so significant. butler 67-5 SU at home and theyve lost just one home game in the last 2 and a half years. obviously butler graduated some guys from those teams, but lightfoot, monserez, and sheets are holdovers from those squads. whats weird is that wright state has perenially been one of the worst road teams in not only the horizon, but the country. for some reason, theyre kicking ass on the road this season. go figure. maybe this line for saturday takes into account past histories for both teams. in that respect, line value might be there with wsu. but going against detroit and butler at home is normally suicide (although both have been up and down at this yr)

also- just so youre aware, butler DID beat ysu the other night. close game, but they won in OT

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'll throw in two cents that could be useful. This isn't exactly breaking news, but I don't think Ohio St's 3-13 ATS mark is a fluke. I say that considering O'Brien's vocal cord problem. Imagine how MASSIVE a disadvantage it is for your coach to virtually be unable to talk during a game in a loud gym. He can't get the attention of his players, and he can't get in the refs' ears. Tough to quantify this, but that could EASILY be worth 3 points a game.

I read an article about O'Brien. If his condition doesn't improve, he may have to give up coaching, maybe even by next year. Too bad.

 

[gman2]

chucky:

i think to a certain extent youre right- especially in conference play. but hes got to deal with a lot of knuckleheads too. he booted some guys off the team in the offseason, and now hes gotta deal with the stockman situation. not a huge o'brien fan, but i respect him for taking a disciplinary stand. youre right- tough to quantify his loss of communication though.

 

[ajoytoy]

gl on your plays today GMan!


toy

 

[gman2]

storming:

got a chance to watch the butler game today. i gotta give wsu a lot of credit. to win outright in that building is very, very impressive. butler, however, is not running their offense as efficiently as they were last year. their offense has always been centered around the 3pt shot and the ability to shoot the perimeter jumper. but theyre not working their offense TOWARD the basket. they run a perimeter weave kind of offense and last year, they would get a lot of backcuts and stuff like that for layups. but this year, its like they just pass it around the perimeter and try to find a 3pt shot instead of running their offense and taking the open 3 when its there. sheets and horan are both outstanding 3pt shooters, but theyre just forcing too many 3s. i give wsu a lot of credit though. winning in finkle is something very very few teams are able to do.

 

[I'm Storming]

Thanks for the great feedback Gman.

 

[Spiro]

shredding my St Bonnie ticket, St Joes may hit 100 on this team, looks like both of us were way off on this game.

 

[mjalam]

how do you go against st joe's?

 

[gman2]

how do you go against st joe's?

hindsight 20/20. have won a lot more than ive lost in this kind of set-up. (teams off blowouts and laying big road pts) this aint gonna be one of em though. sju 67% from the field and 12/16 from 3pt line at the half. can definitely say ive never seen that in my life. im already over it. not gonna sweat a game like this. sju damn good, but 12/16 from 3pt range will beat some pro teams

 

[mjalam]

no i didn't mean it like that..i just meant what did you like about it..i just can't ever go against a hot team...wasn't thinking it was a bad play..just wondering..gl

 

[gman2]

adding:
=================================
pepperdine (-8.5) over loyola marymount
=================================
not always wise to lay points with a team not particularly committed to defense; however pepperdine has absolutely dominated this series, especially in malibu:

*pepperdine has won 10 straight in this series

*pepperdine has buried loyola in malibu the L5 times.

*last 5 meetings in malibu: waves won 94-71, 84-59, 75-54, 95-73, and 97-83. id say thats dominating a team

betting the waves will continue their series dominance

 

[gman2]

got hooked on tulsa woulda been a solid day otherwise. instead, gotta settle for gaining a few bucks.

looking at tennessee for sunday. does this line look high to anyone else? i guess louisville has a strong betting contingent, so i guess there'll be plenty that say "louisville gonna kill em". but just cant figure out how kentucky lays 3.5 and louisville lays 7.5. overnight line looks way too high. set there for a reason?

 

[Felonious Monk]

Louisville line is a bit inflated but this is what I'm thinking Vegas is thinking.....that everyone is going to be on the Cards after they impressed with their win over Cincy.

BUT I do have to say that Tennessee is a streaky team to bet on. One minute they play superb ball and the next they fall flat on their asses.

That being said I may have to grab the points and play the home dog. Gonna see what the matchups look like in a bit.

 

[Hoops]

Might be a tad of an overreaction to the Cincy game, but I think Louisville is a four point higher fave than Kentucky was because they are 3-4 points better than Kentucky on a neutral court. They proved that when they played Kentucky earlier this season and in every game since then. Legit #1 caliber team, which I dont think Kentucky is...a notch below that level IMO.

 

[loophole]

i went to the ecu/louisville game last week and was awed by the power, speed and athleticism of the cardinals. pure complacency was the only reason they didn't cover the dd spread and sink my ecu bet. i promised myself when i luckily won that bet that i wouldn't give it back betting against them in the future. i agree with hoops - this cardinal team has final four written all over them.

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Ohio St loses again ATS. Somebody smarter than me must have been cleaning up on anti-Buckeyes all year long. Think about it. You can't have a mute coach. Just doesn't work.