NYI -1/2 +110
under 4.5 Mont/Buff +107
over Calg/Phx 4.5 -119
parlay: TB -1/2 and Vanc -1/2 (1 unit wins 1.12)
parlay: TB, Vanc, NJ all -1/2, ov Calg, 'Canes ml (1 unit wins 21.39--what the heck!)
Biron very sharp of late, and Buff under 5-2 last 7 as a fave. Theodore sharp too, except last so should bounce back strong tonight. under 4-0-1 last five meetings.
Islanders goalie hot and so is power play. Bost PK 77% of late (NYI 95%!). NY back to playing well at home too.
Looks like Grahame for TB say papers. He owns Pitt and play very well of late, esp on road. problem is Pitt will try hard not to set new franchise record tonight for consecutive home losses.
Vanc paper say rusty Hedberg "may" start tonight in goal.
Turek/Burke? I'm going for that over. Phx paper sez Burke starting even tho it's Brian Boucher night at Glendale Arena. over 6-1 last 7 meetings and 7-1 Calg's last 8 overall.
Looking at Canes +220 with their better play on road of late and Weekes off a loss should be sharper, and team sore after let one slip by last game. Toro has this lone home game sandwiched between two road and off emotional win vs MTL and these guys love to serve up turkeys to us bettors occasionally....tho Columbus (tough at home) or Edmn (tough after losses and Colo back from road) might be better dogs....
3-1 last post , (1/20) +2.20. and won the chalk parlay, +1.18 units
that takes it to +3.50 for the season, SU pics (62-54-4).
four losing posts in last 18 and +18.96 units in that run! (was down and worked hard to turn it around) all flat bets too!
parlay pics: 9-9, +0.96
prop bets: 2-1-2, +0.69
all flat bet 1 unit risk per pic (for example, a +135 pic would pay 1.35 units, a -135 pic would pay 0.74 units).
except one winning 2 unit pic (-102)
no chalk over -170
any comments?
good luck to all
/////////////////////////////////////////////////
below I stole this from "atlantamuckler" :
Much has been said about the point spread performance of teams playing their first game at home coming off a lengthy road trip in this thread. Tampa Bay will exit a four-game trip on Thursday. I analyzed the Eastern Conference this morning, and the following is what I found. Of course, I had to analyze the numbers to see for myself. I hope you all find this information useful. I also hope the Western Conference teams offer more to go on.
Since the start of the 2001-02 season, these numbers include road trips of three games or more. There are some surprising numbers.
First home game after three games on the road: 38-42-2
First home game after four games on the road: 23-31-2
First home game after five games on the road: 12-11-0
First home game after six games on the road: 5-8-0
First home game after seven or more games on the road: 5-3-2
Overall ATS record: 83-95-6
If you take away the two most successful teams, TB and Tor, the overall record of the other 13 teams is just 60-87-5.
ATS records shown below for each team are for all trips of 3 games or more since the beginning of 2001-02 season.
Southeast Division
Washington 5-5 (1-2 this year)
Florida 5-13 (1-3 this year and 2-7 last 9)
Carolina 4-7-1 (2-0 this year)
Atlanta 4-11-1 (0-3 this year)
Tampa Bay 12-5 (2-1 this year and 7-0 last year; 9-1 last 10)
If you take away Tampa Bay, the other SE teams are just 5-21 off a 3-game trip!
Northeast Division
Ottawa 5-8-1 (1-2 this year and 3-8 last 11)
Montreal 5-5-2 (2-1 this year)
Boston 3-8 (0-2 this year)
Buffalo 3-5 (0-1 this year)
Toronto 11-3-1 (3-1 this year)
If you take away the Leafs, the other NE teams are 2-10-1 off a 4-game trip and 1-5 off a six-game trip.
Atlantic Division
Pittsburgh 7-4 (1-2 this year)
Philadelphia 7-4 (1-2 this year)
New Jersey 6-6-0 (0-3 this year)
NY Islanders 6-6 (2-2 this year)
NY Rangers 4-7-2 (1-1 this year but 1-7-1 last 9)
The overall record of Eastern Conference teams in this scenario is 17-26 ATS this season. If you take away TB, Tor, Car and Mtl, the overall record for the remaining 11 teams is just 8-23 ATS.
OK, I'll stop now!
Three Girls and all:
As promised, here are the stats for the Western Conference teams off road trips of three games or more. I hope you find these timely, as the Avs face Edmonton tonight off a four-game trip, Detroit and Minnesota come off trips on Thursday night, and the Preds face SJ on Saturday night off a four-game trip. Please take note of the most recent expansion teams, some surprising and noteworthy stats from each.
Central Division
Chicago 4-7-2 (0-2 this year and 0-6 last 6)
Columbus 7-5 (2-0 this year and 7-1 last 8; 4-0 off trips of 5 games or more)
Detroit 8-6 (1-1 this year)
Note: only one trip longer than 4 games during last 3 seasons (W). Play NJ Thurs. off 5-game trip.
Nashville 8-5-1 (2-1 this year and 5-0-1 last 6 off a 4-game trip)
Note: after another road game at Columbus on Thurs., Preds face SJ at home on Sat.
St. Louis 12-7 (4-0 last 4 off a 4-game trip, no trips longer than 5 games last 3 seasons)
Division overall record is 35-23-1 without Chicago
Northwest Division
Calgary 11-6 (4-0 this year and 6-2 last 8 trips with Sutter at the helm)
Colorado 9-8 (4-0 this year all of them off 3-game trips; 7-1 last 8 with Granato; 0-2 off 4-game trips)
Tonight the Avs face Edmonton off a 4-game trip.
Edmonton 8-8 (2-1 this year; just 2-5 off a 3-game trip but 4-0 off a six-game trip)
Minnesota 12-4-1 (4-1 this year and until its loss to Edm. on Jan. 2 off a 3-game trip, Wild had won its last 9.
Also, 9-2 off a 3-game trip last three seasons). ALERT: They play Montreal Thursday off a 3-game trip
Vancouver 9-8 (2-2 this year and 0-3 last 3 off a six-game trip)
Division is 49-34 in all such situations.
Pacific Division
Anaheim 8-10-1 (3-1 this year; prior to this season Ducks were just 1-8 off a 4-game or longer trip but are 3-0 this year)
Dallas 12-8 but 12-4 last 16 (3-1 this year)
Los Angeles 10-4-2 (3-1 this year but no trips longer than 4 games so far).
Phoenix 9-9 (1-3 this year including 1st loss after a 3-game trip in last seven situations; 0-5 last 5 off a four-game trip)
San Jose 9-8 (3-2 this year; 3-0 off a 3-game trip and 6-1 last 3 seasons)
Enjoy and good luck!
under 4.5 Mont/Buff +107
over Calg/Phx 4.5 -119
parlay: TB -1/2 and Vanc -1/2 (1 unit wins 1.12)
parlay: TB, Vanc, NJ all -1/2, ov Calg, 'Canes ml (1 unit wins 21.39--what the heck!)
Biron very sharp of late, and Buff under 5-2 last 7 as a fave. Theodore sharp too, except last so should bounce back strong tonight. under 4-0-1 last five meetings.
Islanders goalie hot and so is power play. Bost PK 77% of late (NYI 95%!). NY back to playing well at home too.
Looks like Grahame for TB say papers. He owns Pitt and play very well of late, esp on road. problem is Pitt will try hard not to set new franchise record tonight for consecutive home losses.
Vanc paper say rusty Hedberg "may" start tonight in goal.
Turek/Burke? I'm going for that over. Phx paper sez Burke starting even tho it's Brian Boucher night at Glendale Arena. over 6-1 last 7 meetings and 7-1 Calg's last 8 overall.
Looking at Canes +220 with their better play on road of late and Weekes off a loss should be sharper, and team sore after let one slip by last game. Toro has this lone home game sandwiched between two road and off emotional win vs MTL and these guys love to serve up turkeys to us bettors occasionally....tho Columbus (tough at home) or Edmn (tough after losses and Colo back from road) might be better dogs....
3-1 last post , (1/20) +2.20. and won the chalk parlay, +1.18 units
that takes it to +3.50 for the season, SU pics (62-54-4).
four losing posts in last 18 and +18.96 units in that run! (was down and worked hard to turn it around) all flat bets too!
parlay pics: 9-9, +0.96
prop bets: 2-1-2, +0.69
all flat bet 1 unit risk per pic (for example, a +135 pic would pay 1.35 units, a -135 pic would pay 0.74 units).
except one winning 2 unit pic (-102)
no chalk over -170
any comments?
good luck to all
/////////////////////////////////////////////////
below I stole this from "atlantamuckler" :
Much has been said about the point spread performance of teams playing their first game at home coming off a lengthy road trip in this thread. Tampa Bay will exit a four-game trip on Thursday. I analyzed the Eastern Conference this morning, and the following is what I found. Of course, I had to analyze the numbers to see for myself. I hope you all find this information useful. I also hope the Western Conference teams offer more to go on.
Since the start of the 2001-02 season, these numbers include road trips of three games or more. There are some surprising numbers.
First home game after three games on the road: 38-42-2
First home game after four games on the road: 23-31-2
First home game after five games on the road: 12-11-0
First home game after six games on the road: 5-8-0
First home game after seven or more games on the road: 5-3-2
Overall ATS record: 83-95-6
If you take away the two most successful teams, TB and Tor, the overall record of the other 13 teams is just 60-87-5.
ATS records shown below for each team are for all trips of 3 games or more since the beginning of 2001-02 season.
Southeast Division
Washington 5-5 (1-2 this year)
Florida 5-13 (1-3 this year and 2-7 last 9)
Carolina 4-7-1 (2-0 this year)
Atlanta 4-11-1 (0-3 this year)
Tampa Bay 12-5 (2-1 this year and 7-0 last year; 9-1 last 10)
If you take away Tampa Bay, the other SE teams are just 5-21 off a 3-game trip!
Northeast Division
Ottawa 5-8-1 (1-2 this year and 3-8 last 11)
Montreal 5-5-2 (2-1 this year)
Boston 3-8 (0-2 this year)
Buffalo 3-5 (0-1 this year)
Toronto 11-3-1 (3-1 this year)
If you take away the Leafs, the other NE teams are 2-10-1 off a 4-game trip and 1-5 off a six-game trip.
Atlantic Division
Pittsburgh 7-4 (1-2 this year)
Philadelphia 7-4 (1-2 this year)
New Jersey 6-6-0 (0-3 this year)
NY Islanders 6-6 (2-2 this year)
NY Rangers 4-7-2 (1-1 this year but 1-7-1 last 9)
The overall record of Eastern Conference teams in this scenario is 17-26 ATS this season. If you take away TB, Tor, Car and Mtl, the overall record for the remaining 11 teams is just 8-23 ATS.
OK, I'll stop now!
Three Girls and all:
As promised, here are the stats for the Western Conference teams off road trips of three games or more. I hope you find these timely, as the Avs face Edmonton tonight off a four-game trip, Detroit and Minnesota come off trips on Thursday night, and the Preds face SJ on Saturday night off a four-game trip. Please take note of the most recent expansion teams, some surprising and noteworthy stats from each.
Central Division
Chicago 4-7-2 (0-2 this year and 0-6 last 6)
Columbus 7-5 (2-0 this year and 7-1 last 8; 4-0 off trips of 5 games or more)
Detroit 8-6 (1-1 this year)
Note: only one trip longer than 4 games during last 3 seasons (W). Play NJ Thurs. off 5-game trip.
Nashville 8-5-1 (2-1 this year and 5-0-1 last 6 off a 4-game trip)
Note: after another road game at Columbus on Thurs., Preds face SJ at home on Sat.
St. Louis 12-7 (4-0 last 4 off a 4-game trip, no trips longer than 5 games last 3 seasons)
Division overall record is 35-23-1 without Chicago
Northwest Division
Calgary 11-6 (4-0 this year and 6-2 last 8 trips with Sutter at the helm)
Colorado 9-8 (4-0 this year all of them off 3-game trips; 7-1 last 8 with Granato; 0-2 off 4-game trips)
Tonight the Avs face Edmonton off a 4-game trip.
Edmonton 8-8 (2-1 this year; just 2-5 off a 3-game trip but 4-0 off a six-game trip)
Minnesota 12-4-1 (4-1 this year and until its loss to Edm. on Jan. 2 off a 3-game trip, Wild had won its last 9.
Also, 9-2 off a 3-game trip last three seasons). ALERT: They play Montreal Thursday off a 3-game trip
Vancouver 9-8 (2-2 this year and 0-3 last 3 off a six-game trip)
Division is 49-34 in all such situations.
Pacific Division
Anaheim 8-10-1 (3-1 this year; prior to this season Ducks were just 1-8 off a 4-game or longer trip but are 3-0 this year)
Dallas 12-8 but 12-4 last 16 (3-1 this year)
Los Angeles 10-4-2 (3-1 this year but no trips longer than 4 games so far).
Phoenix 9-9 (1-3 this year including 1st loss after a 3-game trip in last seven situations; 0-5 last 5 off a four-game trip)
San Jose 9-8 (3-2 this year; 3-0 off a 3-game trip and 6-1 last 3 seasons)
Enjoy and good luck!
