wednesday ncaa.............

gman2

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(very strong) ohio state (+9.5) over wisconsin
ohio state moneyline (+380) over wisconsin
bowling green (+3.5) over kent state
akron/buffalo over 147
xavier (+1) over george washington
 
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ChuckyTheGoat

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LOL. Exactly, ST. Maybe Woody Hayes will be patrolling the sidelines on Wednesday.

GL, boys. Hope you hit em all.
 

spang

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I looked at that 147 for a long time before passing. I am having a difficult time getting past the Zips abysmal free throw shooting as of late. I do agree with the principle of the play as the guards for both teams should get off and score with ease.

The Buffalo gym has also been a house of horrors for the Zips the last couple of seasons, so I may toss a half unit on the Bulls on the money line.

Good luck
 

The Big Tease

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gman....what are you smokin up there man????

You may hit it.....but I wouldnt bet YOUR money on those sorry sacks of shit. Wisconsin is better at every position on the floor.....Ohio State will cover some games before the season is up....but I just cant bank on this one.....there wont even be any fans there!
 

gman2

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OHIO STATE
pains me being an anti-buckeye, but think this is an ideal spot for ohio state. bucks have failed to cover in 5 of L6, whereas wisconsin comes in after smashing illinois and covering 4 of their L6 in convincing fashion. i think this is just the kind of game ohio state needs: top 20 team coming to town, an opponent they know they can beat. its the kind of game that can salvage a season. i dont know why, but i sense that stockman will come back from his suspension re-focused and more committed to playing a team game. this series has been INCREDIBLY close over the last few years. believe it or not, ohio state is 7-3 L10 straight up in this series. osu 3-1 straight up in their L4 meetings in columbus (and the lone loss was by a single point, 53-52). and 2 or wisconsins 3 wins were by a combined 3 points. why is this series so close? i think its because both teams are willing to play ugly, ugly basketball. in only 2 of the L10 meetings has either team cracked 70pts. this game reminds me of the big10 tourney meeting last year. bucks were 8pt dogs on a neutral court. wisconsin obviously had the better team. but osu made it ugly and won outright 58-50. i dont know how. dont know why. but osu plays wisconsin tough. theyve been outclassed the last few years and still kept this series tight. theres lots of value in that high number given osu's success vs wisky. and i think bucks find a way to rally around their recent drama (tease, you might see it differently, but this is about the best spot to back osu all yr in my opinion)
 
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gman2

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BOWLING GREEN
falcons have been doing what they always do: dominate at anderson arena. their lone loss at home this year was in early december to northwestern. this bg/kent series is always close when they play at bg. kent has won the L3 by 6,3,and 6 -- but each of those games were tight the whole way. flashes have beaten the shit outta teams at home, but theyve been beatable on the road. lost to miami recently and could have lost to marshall (escaped w/2pt win). falcons discipline is what keeps them in games with the mac elite. now as i say that- i look back to bg's last game vs toledo where they gave up 80+ pts, but that was an anomaly. bg competes with kent because both teams do the same things well. they pressure the ball, have solid defensive principles, and both are fundamentally sound in the shooting and turnover departments. falcons are one of the best FT shooting teams in the nation (currently #3 at 77.6%) and their home success (and ability to hang close vs good teams) is a direct byproduct of their shooting. kent is clicking right now, but bowling green as a home dog is almost an obligatory play.
 

Marmalade

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Good luck on the play, gman2.

Here's preview from Capital Times.

Sorry to clutter you're thread & won't do it again if a problem...will just make new one.

COLUMBUS, Ohio - After a team misses as many open jump shots as Ohio State has through five Big Ten Conference men's basketball games, there comes a time when a coach must admit that his players just don't know how to put the ball in the hole.

Don't count Buckeyes coach Jim O'Brien as one of those ready to make that statement.

"I'm expecting us, any game now, to put it all together and have a good shooting night," he said.

The University of Wisconsin is hoping it doesn't happen tonight, when the 17th-ranked Badgers (13-3, 4-1 Big Ten) travel to Value City Arena here to take on the Buckeyes (9-9, 1-4). A victory would move the UW into a first-place tie with Indiana.

The 10th-place Buckeyes, who have been home to some of the Big Ten's best guards over the years, are in a world of hurt because of their horrific perimeter game that includes making just 22.1 percent of their 3-pointers in conference games. They rank last in the conference in that category.

The Buckeyes are shooting just 14.5 percent from 3-point range in their four Big Ten losses. They made 7-of-13 from beyond the arc in their lone conference win against Minnesota.

J.J. Sullinger, a 6-5 sophomore guard, is the leading long-range shooter for the Buckeyes after making 4-of-11 treys in five conference games. Tony Stockman, a transfer from Clemson who was in O'Brien's doghouse last week and didn't make the trip to Iowa, is shooting at an 18.2 percent clip from 3-point range, while freshman guard Nick Dials has made 17.6 percent from 3.

"Part of our dilemma is if you're not going to make outside shots, teams have no reason to extend their defense," said O'Brien, who likes the shots his players have been taking. "And if they don't extend on us, they have the ability to pack it in and kind of jam things up for our two big kids who we like to go to."

The Buckeyes' strength revolves around 7-foot senior center Velimir Radinovic and 6-9 sophomore forward Terence Dials. They are the type of athletic, active big men who have given the Badgers fits, particularly on the road, where the UW has lost three straight.

Dials averages 9.1 points and 6.7 rebounds in all games, but averages a team-leading 11.4 points in Big Ten games. Radinovic averages 9.6 points and 5.9 rebounds in all games, but averages 10.8 points and a team-leading 7.2 rebounds in Big Ten games. They have combined to attempt 47 free throws to lead a team that has attempted 19 more free throws than the Badgers so far in the Big Ten season.

Another forward, 6-6, 240-pound senior Shun Jenkins, has bothered the Badgers in the past. He averages 2.8 points and 3.3 rebounds this year.

"They are getting great position on the low block and getting themselves open," UW assistant Greg Gard said of Dials and Radinovic.

Gard added that they compare to Alabama's big men "with the way they try to pound at you and touch the post, be efficient and get to the free-throw line."

What concerns Wisconsin is its interior defense wasn't exactly stellar during the Badgers' 76-56 win over Illinois Saturday at the Kohl Center. Illini forward Roger Powell exploded for 24 points in that game.

"We have to try and keep the ball out of there. That's the biggest thing. That's always the first line of defense in post defense," said Gard.

"You have to make them guard on our end and you have to move and hopefully try to catch them out of their comfort zone on their end. It'll be a battle for 40 minutes to see who gives in to that first," he added.

"Positioning will be key. Offensive rebounding will be key. You have to limit their touches and force them into taking shots out of their comfort zone and limit their trips to the foul line."

It will also help if the Badgers can bother the Buckeyes' guards into another poor shooting night. That has been one of the Badgers' strengths so far this season as they lead the Big Ten in field-goal percentage defense (38.9 percent) and are fourth in 3-point field-goal percentage defense (29.7) in conference games.

They held Michigan's Daniel Horton to eight points and Illinois' Dee Brown to four in the past two games.

"I like our perimeter players guarding perimeter players," said UW assistant Rob Jeter. "The discipline that we're starting to show guarding perimeters is getting better."

The Buckeyes also haven't helped themselves in the turnover department. While the UW is second in Big Ten games in assist-to-turnover ratio, the Buckeyes are last after turning it over an average of 17.4 times per game.

But making shots remains the Buckeyes' biggest priority.

"I think there's a direct connection to how well we shoot and how well we do," said O'Brien.

He believes Stockman, who will be in the lineup tonight, and Dials are both good shooters.

"It's just been one of those quirky things where none of our guys are making shots on the perimeter. Then it becomes a confidence thing and so we have to keep telling certain guys that they have to keep looking to shoot it," O'Brien said.

"I really believe that one of these games our guys are going to start shooting the ball a lot better. Perhaps we'll win a game or two and get some confidence and I think we can go on a little bit of a roll."


UW-OSU PREVIEW

What: No. 17 Wisconsin (13-3, 4-1 Big Ten) at Ohio State (9-9, 1-4).

When: Wednesday at 7 p.m.

Where: Value City Arena, Columbus, Ohio.

Radio: WIBA-AM/1310 and WIBA-FM/101.5

TV: Fox Sports Net/Ch. 26

Points to Ponder: In Big Ten games, the Buckeyes are shooting 39.9 percent overall, 22.1 percent from 3-point range and 65.6 percent from the free-throw line.

** In Big Ten games, Wisconsin is shooting 44.2 percent overall, 31.3 percent from 3-point range and 70.6 percent from the free-throw line.

** OSU's opponents are shooting 42.9 percent overall, 37.5 percent from 3-point range.

** The UW's opponents are shooting 42.1 percent overall, 33.9 from 3-point range.

** The Buckeyes are outrebounding their opponents by an average of 36.4-33.0 per game and have been outscored by an average of 71.8-61.8.

** The Badgers are outrebounding their opponents by an average of 34.2-30.1 per game. They are outscoring their opponents by an average of 69.5-55.9.
 

gman2

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marmalade:

any and all feedback is welcome. ;)

storming:

thats a surprising move. but it doesnt both me at all. im half-tempted to moneyline the game now. not being stubborn, just feel like i know the teams well
 

3 Seconds

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Back on the same page...

Back on the same page...

With the Buckeyes tonight. Heck I may just take a shot on the ML with them.


Not sure of BG, but understand the play.


I really love Miss St tonight.


Good Luck Gman..

:D
 

gman2

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AKRON OVER 147
not a ton of fundamental reasoning behind this one. more of just a "feel" play. both akron and buffalo are very poor defensive teams. akron is especially bad on defense away from home. buffalo is allowing a shitload of points lately, and akron has the firepower to easily crack 80+. certainly not saying the game is gonna be in the 80s but definitely can see a 79-75 kind of game. to be objective- akron has terrible at the line lately. thats whats keeping me from playing this stronger. split pairs and missed front ends of 1-and-1s arent conducive to cashing over tickets. but still feel like the pace will be fast enough where that wont matter

XAVIER
this is one of my "system plays" (playing against home chalks of 2 or less). and this particular game is a great example of why i believe home favs of < 2 are good teams to go against. the road team is often superior and the few pts the linesmaker adds for home court advantage often arent enough to overcome the disparity in talent, almost making for a pseudo-favorite. simply put: xavier is better, and there is a big edge on defense. george washington is not a good defensive team; xavier is pretty sound in the halfcourt. muskateers kind of under the radar a little after dropping some winnable games at home to st.joes and richmond. but theyre still a solid a-10 team and still think theyre superior to george washington, even on the road
 
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CollegeCapper

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Good luck with Xavier, but I think this line is low due to the public's perception that Xavier is the same kind of team as in year's past -- GW should really be a 5 or 6 point favorite here.
 

KsYaS

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gman2, based in what you say about Xavier game, don't you like the salukis today?? :D
 

gman2

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KsYaS said:
gman2, based in what you say about Xavier game, don't you like the salukis today?? :D

youre right, southern illinois would indeed qualify. some people are very strict with their systems, saying that all qualifying plays should be played (as opposed to picking and choosing) in order to take full advantage of the percentages. personally, im a little more discriminating. i wont play all the away dogs of < 2, but i do know that theyve won more than theyve lost. i liked xavier to begin with, and the line just re-confirmed my play. the siu/wichita game is tricky. unlikely that siu goes through mvc play undefeated, but they did have their way with wichita a few weeks ago (led by 17 late in the game and gave up cheap baskets to make it closer than the final indicates)
 

c note

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thanks g man......i saw that greg has posted bg and that you are on them as well........makes me even more confident in the play!!
 

spang

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On BG large tonight as well. Returning MAC totals mojo back at you, and I realize that taking MIami over is always a risky prop.

Hope both games resemble a track meet. Best of luck!!
 

gman2

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:chairshot

blue smiley = gman
red smiley = pinnacle

went over some #s.

4-11 my last 11 dog plays
8-1 my last 9 chalk plays

dont know how to make sense of any of it.
totally stumped. :confused:

ill catch you guys after super bowl. gonna lay low for 3 or 4 days and just kick it. see you guys on monday.
 
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