Handicapping Theory.....

[The Big Tease]

OK....First of all I apologize for taking up space before 7:00 when games are about to start because I do not have any of my plays in here, but I am trying to analyze the way that I select games, and try to improve and find out where my mistakes are.

There, as you are well aware of, are MANY different kinds of bettors. I "used" to consider myself a Contrarian. There are many contrarians on this website. Many are successful. I used to consider myself one 100%, but there comes a time when you find a line that makes absolutly NO SENSE, the contrarian goes the unconventional way and when it loses, you feel like a complete idiot. Your sports knowledge KNEW what the right side was yet you were dooped into playing the losing side. Not a good feeling.

I think there is something to be said for being a contrarian and not just taking every game that looks like a "gift" The KEY is how do we decipher the difference between a winner and a loser when using contrarian handicapping???

It is no secret that Vegas will set a line based on public perception. I will use a game tonight for example.

NC State +9 at North Carolina

Now if you use basketball knowledge and MANY power rankings. MANY of those will tell you that up to this point in the season....these teams are VERY comparable in strength. So why is NC State getting 9 points?? Home court is good for some of those, but 9???

When Joe Public looks at the schedule for tonights games before he even sees the lines, he sees that NC State has to go in and play a North Carolina team that just blew a game at Florida State, and NEEDS a bounceback win, and should be able to get that win at home. Joe Public gets his money ready for the following day and is ready to plop a big bet on the Tarheels. He looks the next day at the line.....expecting maybe North Carolina -4 or 5. Well he sees North Carolina -9???? Well shit! I dont know if I wanna give 9 points!!! NC State isnt a pushover!! So now it is decision time.

Joe Public feels pretty confident that North Carolina is going to bounce back at home, but this game has to be basically a blowout!

That is my point that I THINK I am trying to make. You hear cliches in amoungst gamblers like "Vegas is BEGGING for your NC State money" or "This game is a trap, and I am not falling for it, gimme North Carolina, I dont care if they are giving 15 points!"

Is this true?? Is Vegas really BEGGING for our money on one side?? Well.....maybe in a way. If all of the Joe Public's are confident that North Carolina is going to win this game and no "realistic" line is going to scare them away, then they need EVEN ACTION! So yea, they are "begging" for your NC State money, because even at a line of 9, Joe Public is certain that this is a statement game for North Carolina.

So us as smart bettors.....what are we to do?? The basketball mind in most of us knows that you are going to get a full effort from a North Carolina team that NEEDS a win tonight, and should win the game tonight.

The basketball mind in us knows that NC State is a solid club and 9 points is probably too many.

So this is where I am asking for your help.......I want to establish a way of thinking so that I am confident that I am betting SMART. I understand that there is no fullproof way to ALWAYS win money at this.....you will always have your ups and downs. But I fully believe that if you really know the teams and understand Vegas' tendencies in making lines, you can find "bad lines" and expose them, and be able to hit 55-59% of your games in the LONG RUN.

Again, sorry for taking up a lot of time on this right now, but I had a few minutes and wanted to get your opinions on this.

 

[Innavation]

Nc state a solid team--especailly at home---but on the road against a very althletic team like Unc--with the crowd rocking---Unc is going to run them off the court--They are asking for Nc state money---UNc has a load of talent--and they haven't even begun to play their best baskeball, but feel that loss to Flordia St really was a good loss for them. They have woken up. I think most people would look at this game and see (like u stated) a good Nc state team getting 9 pts--and grab the pts. and it is not uncommon for people to play the dog these days--more and more people are playing dogs. I personaly think Unc is a tough team--that needs to be more consisent, but at home on Tv--they will bring their A game tonight. Nc state is solid, but not a contender by any means. Their lack of depth at the guard spot will be exploited today--Hodge can only do so much.

 

[The Big Tease]

Just for kicks....I am going to say that the "correct" picks for a couple games that I believe have lines that probably are affected by public perception are these....

I think that North Carolina -9 is the play. (This line can actually be justified because NC State is brass at home and are till suspect on the road. North Carolina is pretty good at home as well....possibly can justfy that home court is about 5 or 6 points in this game.....and talent-wise NC maybe a point or 2 better...possibly justified)

I will also take Miami FL +7 over Notre Dame. (Public still waiting on Notre Dame to come around. They havent turned the corner yet, and are not any better at home then on the road) The points are not justfied in this spot, in my opinion.)

So North Carolina -9 and Miami FL +7

We will see what happens!

 

[JCoverS]

I think you are forgetting that they have played Virginia at home since that FSU loss. And I believe someone else mentioned this but it is worth repeating that with the defense they played against Virginia, it sure didn't look like they learned much from that FSU loss. IMO, the points look attractive, but rightfully so. This team is no defensive stalwart by any means, which could leave the backdoor open even if they get a larger than double digit lead. Personally, I only try to lay money on almost DD favs when they are also solid defensively. I think it is just as easy to say that the linesmaker shade the line toward the fave, knowing how public of a team UNC is this year. Lots of hype surrounding this team you know? Sure they have loads of talent and could run the Pack out of the gym tonight, but this is personally one that I would leave alone. Just throwing my thoughts into the mix here.

-JC

 

[Dizzayton]

I don't read into lines. I just play what I think is the right pick. In my humble opinion, when you start worrying about what others are doing and try to guess what the lines makers are doing then you are behind before you even start. I have gambled on sports for about 5 years, lost badly a couple of times(in the thousands) and won a few times as well. The one thing I am sure of is that you have to stick to a strategy and be discipline. If you are gonna get caught up in line movement and follow others picks you are likely to be inconsistent and lose. My advice is to watch the games, try to come up with a logical, unbiased opinion about a game you are going to pick, and then make your bet. Don't bet too many games, and don't bet a game just for the hell of it. Have confidence in your plays. And be prepared to hit several losing streaks along the way. Good luck.

 

[The Big Tease]

Well.....thats the thing. LOTS of people know sports in and out. And those same people lose thier ASSES gambling on sports. I have personally gambled on sports for 7 years now, and by no means do I have any clue how to master picking 55-60% of my plays. I think it can take people an extremely long time to fully understand how to gamble.


I agree that you have to know the games you gamble on, but I also think that you have to be in the mind of the linesmakers as well. Lines are placed for a reason, and that reason is not based on stats. It is based on public perception. So there is a lot more to it than just knowing sports. That is the part I am trying to understand better

 

[Dizzayton]

I firmly believe you do not have to pay attention to lines to be successful.

 

[wolfpacker97]

Well The Big Tease, you went 0-2 on your Virtual plays.

I know what you are saying about lines. I always like the ones where the worse record team overall is favored at home. Tomorrow we have St Mary's at Pepperdine -2. St Mary's is 12-7 overall, 5-6 on the road and 3-1 in conference. Pepperdine is 8-12 overall, 5-3 at home and 3-2 in conference. You would expect the public to be all over St Marys. What I do in the cases, is to watch the line as close to game time as possible to see if anything moves. For example, if the line goes up to -3 tomorrow night, I will probably play Pepperdine, or not play at all.