Caro/NE SuperBowl Analysis

edludes

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Oct 25, 2001
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NE has given up 21.7 points per game away from home this year.They lose something on defense when they're not in Foxboro,174 points in 8 away games,and the Eagles were lowest (no surprise there) with only 10 against the NE road D in the second week,(when they were playing horribly,)it was 23 ppg against away with them out of the equation.Carolina's d-line and o-lines are better,NE people are underrating the Carolina defense.I also feel the pound it out offensive preference of Fox matches up with the only way to attack this fine Ne D.The line opening at 6- or 7 to me means that the linesmaker is making a play on NE very attractive to the once a year bettor this game always attracts,"Geez you've got the team that won 14 in a row and your only laying 6-.Thats not even a touchdown!!"Vegas never wants to induce play on a 14 game winning streak team if they're the right side.They'd want to induce action on the dog.Though dogs usually aren't good plays in the superbowl unless they can and do win,I think Carolina has a shot on the ML too_One of my final score forecasting methods,the best one has them winning.I'll likely stick with the points but may make a ML play on Caro as well.I expected them to turn into pumpkins last week against Phila,but now I've come to feel that I don't think they will shit the bed in this game either and that that will be the story of this years playoffs,not NE's fine season.I love the way the Patriots play,they seem to win all the big downs in all the big games just like the old Packers of the 60's did,but this game I think their disadvantage in the trenches will prove to be too much.A couple of untimely TO's by the young Delhomme and this all will be a pipe dream,but the number being so low,well to me it seems way too low for a team with a 14 game win streak if the linesmaker thought they were the right side.I feel that the NE money would be betting their team at 9 or 10 they are sooooo behind their great team (from here reads blinded to objectively evaluating Caro.)Carolina entered the playoffs 6-10 ATS for the reg season,by far the worst of the playoff teams.They cover in the Superbowl they end up 10-10 ATS.NE has failed to cover four times all season.Concerning the total Caro has gone under all three times on road grass this year.When the total was set a sportsbook manager in Las Vegas was quoted as saying that they expected the 38 "to go up by gametime".If they expected this ten days ago,the day the opening line was released and thought the money was going to be right,they would have just opened the total at a higher number.I expect an under 38.GL either way
 
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gardenweasel

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Jan 10, 2002
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ed

ed

many solid cappers are giving a team that`s on a roll,makes few mistakes,with a solid defense and a very good running game very little respect....and muhammad and steve smith aren`t dogs....

i wonder what the line would be if this game were being played in new england during the regular season?......

would it be much more than a full t.d.?...i doubt it...

maybe they`re right....but,i for one,think all this brady/belichick stuff has kind of taken on mythic proportions....the pats are damned good....but i don`t think they have an advantage on the line of scrimmage....on either side of the ball...

7 is a large number,for a team that uses it`s short passing game like a running game and doesn`t usually make a lot of big plays........if i were fox and i was fairly certain that brady was going to the short,quick passing game,i`d make sure my "d" line tried like hell to get their hands up on brady`s short drops and sets to disrupt those short passing lanes and force him to hang in that pocket....

i see both teams having to work for their points using play-laden long drives vs tough defenses.....

i thought 38 was fairly generous....

one thing that i expect and that carolina has to try and stop....the pats almost always seem to be strong offensively on their first few drives....

the panthers can`t let new england establish control right from the jump....the pats are used to being in front.....i think that sets the tone for their defense....makes it easier for them...

should be an excellent game....i agree on the points and maube the moneyline....and MAYBE a touch on the under..or tease the panthers and the under...

g.l.
 
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edludes

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Friday3:40 Pm EST.Sorry to any who've looked in earlier,but I'm getting too much conflicting imput regarding the total and am buying it back.Will jump in at halftime on the total for 2nd half and still love Caro+7 game and ML.Gl either way
 

ELVIS

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gl eddie, it is so tough to walk away from the points. 2 good teams here. vegas could be reeling us all in but i will take the points.;)
 
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