SUPER BOWL WAGERS
GAME BET: CAROLINA +7.5
(buy half-point at -120)
SECOND QUARTER BET: CAROLINA +3
FOURTH QUARTER BET: CAROLINA +.5 (EVEN)
Comments: I'm more impressed with Carolina's road wins (always tougher in the playoffs) than New England's home wins. Carolina's offense continues to get better with each game -- as they have scored 20+ in 6 of last 7 games, which indicates lots of chemistry developing with the offensive unit. New England has been a powerhouse most of the season, but away from Foxboro, this team has not demonstrated the ability to cover big numbers. Look at New England's road games this season:
LOST by 31
WON by 21
LOST by 3
WON by 6
WON by 4
WON by 3
WON by 4
WON by 5
That's eight games, and just one cover above a touchdown --- and that was way back in September. New England has also been at home for a month, and now goes into a stadium where they struggled to beat Houston 23-20 earlier this season. New England is a fine team, but keep in mind that the AFC East was much weaker this season than was expected (MIA, NYJ, and BUFF were all big disappointments) which takes some of the luster off the Patriots impressive record. How about this -- Carolina has the better numbers when it comes to yard per carry rushing -- 4.0 yards to the Patriots 3.4. Carolina has the better numbers when it comes to yards per catch -- 11.8 to 10.6. This is expected to be a low-scoring game as far as Super Bowls go, which I think lends more value to the dog getting more than a touchdown. I'll lay the extra -10 and pick up the half-point here, and take the feisty Panthers.
On the quarters, you have to love either team getting +3 in a 15-minute period where defenses should dictate the pace. I also like the Panthers getting the half-point in the 4th quarter. This is a partial hedge play, where if the Patriots do manage to run up some points they could get complacent late in the game and not score. There is also the possibility that Carolina will keep this game close throughout, in which case we get the half-point in the final quarter.
PARLAY ?
WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE THREE CONSECUTIVE TIMES IN THE GAME
NO -- +150
TOTAL POINTS BY JOHN KASAY O/U 7
OVER -- -120
Comments: This is an excellent bargain, assuming you can find it at your offshore. Parlays at the IP must be off the blue sheet. If you can get down on this, we get a great payoff at slightly better than 3 to 1. The first part of the wager is betting AGAINST either team scoring three straight times. This is normally a trap play, as most Super Bowls have consecutive scoring barrages. To bet YES on the prop, you have to lay ?180. I like the NO coming back at +150. Since the defenses are expected to play a big role, I don?t expect either team to roll up repeated scores
NOTE: LATE LINE HAS DROPPED ALL THE WAY TO +120)
New England poses the greatest chance to score three times in a row, but assuming the Panthers STOP this from happening, that means Carolina kicker John Kasay will almost certainly get enough points to go OVER this number. If the Panthers get bogged down in the red zone (likely) that means field goals for Kasay. It also means it?s less likely for New England to score three straight times. Carolina?s running game is strong enough to give us an edge in terms to stopping the Patriots from running up 3+ scores. The real value here is getting back a whopping 3 to 1 on your money. I believe this is about an even money bet, which means we have a fabulous value getting back 3 to 1 on our investment.
PROP: WILL TY LAW INTERCEPT A PASS IN THE GAME?
NO -- -215
Comments: This is an insane line. Not only does this assume QB Delhomme will throw an interception, but the pick must come by a single player. No player is such a force where he deserves this kind of price. Ty Law?s big game against Indianapolis last week inflated this number. Keep in mind that Carolina is not going to throw the ball 40+ times. This makes is less likely that Law gets the interception. We also get the outside chance that Law is injured in the game and goes out early ? giving us the win. Reasonable price to lay at slightly more than 1-2, on a prop that should probably be about 1-3. And, assuming you also believe the Panthers will not throw at Law often, this bet becomes even stronger.
NOTE: Price now at -230
PROP: WILL DELHOMME THROW AND INTERCEPTION IN THE FIRST-HALF?
NO -- -130
Comments: It's expected that Carolina will run the ball numerous times in the first half, which means LESS passes for QB Delhomme. Now, let's talk about the nature of those passes. The last thing the Panthers' staff wants is Delhomme to get flustered early. For this reason, we can expect some short high-percentage passes and lots of RB Davis. Delhomme has demonstrated pretty good judgement, and for this reason, I think the odds favor him NOT throwing an interception in the first half of this game.
PROP: WHAT WILL HAPPEN FIRST?
PATRIOTS SCORE or PATRIOTS PUNT
PATS PUNT -140
Comments: New England has a very impressive string of scoring on their opening possession. But, that should come to an end here against a better defense and in a situation where play calling in the early part of the game will be more conservative. Bill Belichick is a "field position" kind of coach and will opt to PUNT rather than try 50+ yard field goals. PK Vinatieri has NOT made a FG of more than 50 yards this season. It's more likely the Patriots will PUNT FIRST rather than SCORE FIRST, and this is a fair price to lay.
PROP: TOTAL NUMBER OF PLAYERS TO HAVE A PASSING ATTEMPT (both teams)
OVER 2.5 at +145
Comments: This is one of the best props on the board! I was very tempted to decrease my exposure on some of the other props and lay a very big bet on this one single wager. Essentially, we are betting that 2.5 (which means THREE) players will throw a forward pass in this game (for both teams combined). Of course, the first two players are easy -- as both QBs throw a forward pass. This means that if a RB, WR, punter, or kicker throws a pass, we win. It also allows for the possibility of either QB getting hurt and the second string QB coming in and throwing a pass. Super Bowls often feature trick plays, halfback passes, and other unorthodox plays that are saved up for this big game. On top of all this, we are getting back a whopping +145 on our money! I talked this one over with the manager at the IP, and even he had not noted there was much action on this prop, which indicates many bettors have overlooked it. To me, it looks like one of the best props on the board. While there is the perception that these two offenses tend to be more conservative than average, I believe at least one trick play will result in a "third player" forward pass. We could also get a QB injury, which makes this prop just about "win" automatically, if that happens.
PROP: TEAM TO MAKE LONGEST FIELD GOAL
PANTHERS (Kasay) +105
Comments: The wrong kicker is favored here. Vinatieri is 0-2 from the 50+ yard range. Kasay is 2 of 4 this season. It's more likely Kasay will get the long FG attempt. Even more of a possibility -- assuming the Panthers have trouble in the red zone, this means more FGs. Even if you think the Patriots win and cover, Kasay is the better play here, since it means New England is getting into the end zone, while Carolina's drives stall and Carolina kicks on fourth down. Advantage to Kasay.
-- Nolan Dalla
GAME BET: CAROLINA +7.5
(buy half-point at -120)
SECOND QUARTER BET: CAROLINA +3
FOURTH QUARTER BET: CAROLINA +.5 (EVEN)
Comments: I'm more impressed with Carolina's road wins (always tougher in the playoffs) than New England's home wins. Carolina's offense continues to get better with each game -- as they have scored 20+ in 6 of last 7 games, which indicates lots of chemistry developing with the offensive unit. New England has been a powerhouse most of the season, but away from Foxboro, this team has not demonstrated the ability to cover big numbers. Look at New England's road games this season:
LOST by 31
WON by 21
LOST by 3
WON by 6
WON by 4
WON by 3
WON by 4
WON by 5
That's eight games, and just one cover above a touchdown --- and that was way back in September. New England has also been at home for a month, and now goes into a stadium where they struggled to beat Houston 23-20 earlier this season. New England is a fine team, but keep in mind that the AFC East was much weaker this season than was expected (MIA, NYJ, and BUFF were all big disappointments) which takes some of the luster off the Patriots impressive record. How about this -- Carolina has the better numbers when it comes to yard per carry rushing -- 4.0 yards to the Patriots 3.4. Carolina has the better numbers when it comes to yards per catch -- 11.8 to 10.6. This is expected to be a low-scoring game as far as Super Bowls go, which I think lends more value to the dog getting more than a touchdown. I'll lay the extra -10 and pick up the half-point here, and take the feisty Panthers.
On the quarters, you have to love either team getting +3 in a 15-minute period where defenses should dictate the pace. I also like the Panthers getting the half-point in the 4th quarter. This is a partial hedge play, where if the Patriots do manage to run up some points they could get complacent late in the game and not score. There is also the possibility that Carolina will keep this game close throughout, in which case we get the half-point in the final quarter.
PARLAY ?
WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE THREE CONSECUTIVE TIMES IN THE GAME
NO -- +150
TOTAL POINTS BY JOHN KASAY O/U 7
OVER -- -120
Comments: This is an excellent bargain, assuming you can find it at your offshore. Parlays at the IP must be off the blue sheet. If you can get down on this, we get a great payoff at slightly better than 3 to 1. The first part of the wager is betting AGAINST either team scoring three straight times. This is normally a trap play, as most Super Bowls have consecutive scoring barrages. To bet YES on the prop, you have to lay ?180. I like the NO coming back at +150. Since the defenses are expected to play a big role, I don?t expect either team to roll up repeated scores
NOTE: LATE LINE HAS DROPPED ALL THE WAY TO +120)
New England poses the greatest chance to score three times in a row, but assuming the Panthers STOP this from happening, that means Carolina kicker John Kasay will almost certainly get enough points to go OVER this number. If the Panthers get bogged down in the red zone (likely) that means field goals for Kasay. It also means it?s less likely for New England to score three straight times. Carolina?s running game is strong enough to give us an edge in terms to stopping the Patriots from running up 3+ scores. The real value here is getting back a whopping 3 to 1 on your money. I believe this is about an even money bet, which means we have a fabulous value getting back 3 to 1 on our investment.
PROP: WILL TY LAW INTERCEPT A PASS IN THE GAME?
NO -- -215
Comments: This is an insane line. Not only does this assume QB Delhomme will throw an interception, but the pick must come by a single player. No player is such a force where he deserves this kind of price. Ty Law?s big game against Indianapolis last week inflated this number. Keep in mind that Carolina is not going to throw the ball 40+ times. This makes is less likely that Law gets the interception. We also get the outside chance that Law is injured in the game and goes out early ? giving us the win. Reasonable price to lay at slightly more than 1-2, on a prop that should probably be about 1-3. And, assuming you also believe the Panthers will not throw at Law often, this bet becomes even stronger.
NOTE: Price now at -230
PROP: WILL DELHOMME THROW AND INTERCEPTION IN THE FIRST-HALF?
NO -- -130
Comments: It's expected that Carolina will run the ball numerous times in the first half, which means LESS passes for QB Delhomme. Now, let's talk about the nature of those passes. The last thing the Panthers' staff wants is Delhomme to get flustered early. For this reason, we can expect some short high-percentage passes and lots of RB Davis. Delhomme has demonstrated pretty good judgement, and for this reason, I think the odds favor him NOT throwing an interception in the first half of this game.
PROP: WHAT WILL HAPPEN FIRST?
PATRIOTS SCORE or PATRIOTS PUNT
PATS PUNT -140
Comments: New England has a very impressive string of scoring on their opening possession. But, that should come to an end here against a better defense and in a situation where play calling in the early part of the game will be more conservative. Bill Belichick is a "field position" kind of coach and will opt to PUNT rather than try 50+ yard field goals. PK Vinatieri has NOT made a FG of more than 50 yards this season. It's more likely the Patriots will PUNT FIRST rather than SCORE FIRST, and this is a fair price to lay.
PROP: TOTAL NUMBER OF PLAYERS TO HAVE A PASSING ATTEMPT (both teams)
OVER 2.5 at +145
Comments: This is one of the best props on the board! I was very tempted to decrease my exposure on some of the other props and lay a very big bet on this one single wager. Essentially, we are betting that 2.5 (which means THREE) players will throw a forward pass in this game (for both teams combined). Of course, the first two players are easy -- as both QBs throw a forward pass. This means that if a RB, WR, punter, or kicker throws a pass, we win. It also allows for the possibility of either QB getting hurt and the second string QB coming in and throwing a pass. Super Bowls often feature trick plays, halfback passes, and other unorthodox plays that are saved up for this big game. On top of all this, we are getting back a whopping +145 on our money! I talked this one over with the manager at the IP, and even he had not noted there was much action on this prop, which indicates many bettors have overlooked it. To me, it looks like one of the best props on the board. While there is the perception that these two offenses tend to be more conservative than average, I believe at least one trick play will result in a "third player" forward pass. We could also get a QB injury, which makes this prop just about "win" automatically, if that happens.
PROP: TEAM TO MAKE LONGEST FIELD GOAL
PANTHERS (Kasay) +105
Comments: The wrong kicker is favored here. Vinatieri is 0-2 from the 50+ yard range. Kasay is 2 of 4 this season. It's more likely Kasay will get the long FG attempt. Even more of a possibility -- assuming the Panthers have trouble in the red zone, this means more FGs. Even if you think the Patriots win and cover, Kasay is the better play here, since it means New England is getting into the end zone, while Carolina's drives stall and Carolina kicks on fourth down. Advantage to Kasay.
-- Nolan Dalla
