FSU & Texas A&M- When are people going to learn

[txag]

Well here we go again. A&M is 6-0 ATS in conference play and have played Tech UT and KU at home all very close. So why are they getting 7.5 points at home against okie st. who isnt as good as any of those 3. well i guess becasue vegas knows everyone will see that A&m hasnt won a conference game all year and now a pretty good okie st. team only has to beat them by 8. i already see a high consensus on okie st. and ill wait for this line to go higher and then take the Aggies. A&M wont win this game because they always find ways to lose but it will be close the entire game with okie st. winning it in the last minute.

So FSU has already taken care of UNC and Wake in Tallahassee and now they are a PK agaisnt GT? I dont know what it is going to take for people to realize that FSU is a damn good team at home. I hope nobody notices this so i can keep cashing in on them. i see FSU winning pretty easily tonight as i think talent wise they are pretty equal with GT. Then add in FSU's huge homecourt advantage and they win by 8 or 9 in my opinion.

 

[Valuist]

I noticed that about A & M; its not often a team has 6 covers in a row and lost all 6 of them straight up. Apparently they're still underrated by the linemaker. They must have some talent to hang w/those teams but must lack the killer instinct to get the job done.

 

[txag]

Valuist you are completely right. I have watched this team many times this year and they do have talent, but when it comes to crunch time they look completely lost. Given that they really arent a really young team this shouldnt be happening. I have to think coaching has as much to do with the lack of killer instinct as anything but who knows. I actually think this team might just give up if they lose a couple more close games but as for now I am going to keep cashing in with them.

 

[ezpickin]

Agree with your take on A&M..however, they can be down 2 with 2 mins left and still not get the 7 or 8 point cover...I have seen that picture before...always a guessing game as to what the linesmakers are thinking...is A&M still undervalued or has A&M been knocking at the door so much without getting in that they finally will get the door slammed in their face?

GaTech is a very dangerous team...tough call here...how will tech respond to the Duke game...they had no business losing that game and should have won outright imo...will they bounce back or still be in a funk?

 

[THE NAKED ONE]

I haven't followed either team very closely, although I did back A&M when they played Texas Tech, since I think Tech is simply overvalued on the road.

I looked at Greenfield's prediction for the game (just to get some sort of gauge), and he has Oklahoma St by 9.3060 pts.

I don't know how each of these schools compare with last year's teams, but last March 8 Oklahoma State beat A&M (at OK State) 77-52 with a line of -12 (beat the spread by 13), and on January 11, they beat A&M 93-76 @ A&M with a line of -5.5 (beat the spread by 11.5).

Of course Oklahoma State is the more popular and well-known team. I'm not sure if the average bettor is looking at A&M's 6 recent consecutive covers or not.

With a line of +7.5, I'd really like the dog to be able to WIN the game outright. Even if A&M holds "fairly" tight with them through the game, if they are down by 4 or 5 near the end, free throws can become a problem. I need my team to be in the lead or down by only 1 or 2 the entire game, especially toward the end, preferably in the lead of course. This was the case against an overvalued Texas Tech team on the road.

I don't know. Feels like a weird spot. OK State did go into Texas recently and beat them by 5. They've lost only twice all year. I'd take A&M today ONLY if I thought A&M has a decent chance of winning outright. Otherwise it's too easy for OK State to get a BS cover on the line at the end.

Good luck either way. I'd probably pass.

 

[loophole]

agree with you on tex a&m but fsu being a home dog to ga tech is absolutely mystifying.

 

[MACH1]

Hey Loop,

Good to see you made it home OK. I hope your wife is feeling better...

As for the A&M game, I think the total is off by at least 5 pts. OSU plays great D and neither team has a good FT%. Against the better teams in the conf. A&M has struggled Offensively. Most recently Texas beat A&M by 10 and OSU beat Texas at their house by 5. I think the value is in the total tonight...

Taking under 146.....

 

[txag]

loophole,
you are right I am much more surprised about this FSU line than about the A&M line. What the hell does FSu have to do to prove to people they are a really good home team. im thinking even after they beat GT tonite many people still wont be sold on them.

Mach,

i lean to the under too, because this okie st. team can play some great defense, and not one of their conference games has gone over the total of 146. A&M has some good athletes who can score if they get hot(which hardly ever happens) but I see this game ending up in the 60's.

 

[zgr-jo]

Hey Naked One
What's Greenfield? How do I find it?
Thanks

 

[Valuist]

I think A & M is a great first half bet. Here's their conference first half results:

A&M 31 Texas 32
A&M 36 Iowa St 33
A&M 37 Tex Tech 40
A&M 30 K-State 28
A&M 29 Kansas 31
A&M 31 Mizzou 34

In their worst first half, they were within 3 pts. Have to wonder if stamina is the problem w/this bunch.

 

[txag]

wow valuist thats another good point i didnt even think about fatigue. at the end of games they are always making stupid passes and taking dumb shots. maybe they are just tired and thats the kind of things a team starts doing when they get fatigued. i just see this game being pretty much the same as every other conference game A&M has played. they will keep it close and then lose it in the final minute or so. the only way they dont cover is if okie st. makes alot of free throws at the end for the cover.

 

[coldbeer4soul]

http://teamrankings.com/ncb/

is Greenfield's power #s. Click to the left sidebar for the next three days games.

My take on Greenfield is that his numbers are pretty close to the the morning line. I use the numbers when he shows a home favorite that isn't laying enuff points like St. Pete tonite.

 

[txag]

I got FSU +1.5 and A&M +8. Good luck fellas I think we are gonna nail these 2.

 

[genosays]

Good luck to you txag .... love that under 145 1/2 in the Okie ST/A&M game as well .... not sure why that total is so high??

 

[ajoytoy]

good call txag on FSU...

 

[txag]

1 down and 1 to go. I wonder if this FSU team made any more believers tonight.