Maryland @ Virginia
The Terps and Cavs are both having a tough time of it of late. Maryland is 1-4 SU and ATS over its last five, while Virginia chimes it at 2-3 SU, but 3-2 ATS. At home, they get a slight edge here. The experience factor is debatable, as the Cavs certainly have more upperclassmen, but Maryland sophomores John Gilchrist and Nik Caner-Medley have seen a ton of action in big games.
Nik Caner-Medley is a seasoned sophomore. (Getty Images)
Another factor to note is that Maryland lost in Charlottesville last season, 80-78 in OT, with a vastly more experienced squad. The Terps do have more talent, albeit young, particularly with freshman Ekene Ibekwe growing into a future pro before our very eyes. Can Gary Williams get him and the other young guys to play to their potential in a must-win road game? That appears to be their only saving grace.
For our purposes, do we really want to invest on unproven talent? Doesn't seem wise.
Richmond @ Dayton
Since losing their first three conference games to start the new year, the Spiders haven't lost, becoming road warriors. Wins at Temple, Kansas and Xavier have vaulted them right back in the mix for an at-large bid. At 4-1 SU and ATS over their last five, the Spiders are certainly playing well, as is Dayton, which beat them in Richmond Jan. 14, 55-50. The Flyers are 7-0 in league play and 4-1 ATS in their last five, really flourishing under first-year coach Brian Gregory.
Because of their great success, the Flyers don't need to win this game to maintain their hold on an at-large spot, but UD Arena is certainly a tough place at which to win; Dayton is 10-1 there, but just 2-5 ATS.
Both schools have their fair share of veterans so no real advantage lies there, especially since go-to guys Rashod Marshall and Tony Dobbins are well-versed at taking and making big shots.
Based on our urgency factor and given Dayton's lack of success covering at home, you might be best served taking a look at the spread and siding with the hungry 'dog.
Iowa State @ Oklahoma
The need for wins certainly played a role in Iowa State's upset of Kansas over the weekend, as the Cyclones rallied from 11 points down to drop the previously unbeaten Jayhawks. They will need to keep the upsets coming however, as they have a dangerously low RPI and a really bad loss to Baylor among their last five outings.
Oklahoma has rebounded nicely from a slow start in league play and has won three straight SU and ATS. The Sooners have rallied around the loss of forward Kevin Bookout, who was trying to tough out a painful shoulder injury that had been affecting his play all year. Since stepping aside and opting for season-ending surgery, OU hasn't lost.
The Sooners are in better shape than the Cyclones from a bubble standpoint, but it's not by much. This game could force one of them out of the field altogether, and an OU loss would hurt it more because it's the home side. The experience factor definitely favors the Sooners: Coach Kelvin Sampson has become an NCAA Tournament staple and a handful of the regulars from last season's Elite Eight squad are back. Both teams, however, are now led by freshmen. OU's Drew Lavender and ISU's Curtis Stinson are the likely favorites for Big 12 Newcomer of the Year honors and have performed really well in big games despite their limited college experience.
With Bookout gone, there really isn't much of a talent disparity in this game, as both have equal depth and skill levels. The determining factor may indeed be the Sooners' being at home. They're 10-1 at the Noble Center, where Iowa State is just 1-4 SU on the road and 0-5 ATS.
Notre Dame @ Boston College
The Fighting Irish are in the worst shape of anyone highlighted in this piece, currently standing at 10-7 overall with basically no room for setbacks left. BC's standing is much better thanks to a Top-30 RPI, but what's hurting them is a poor Big East record, currently 2-5. If they can manage to get to 500, the Eagles should get in. Which brings us to this home game.
The Eagles have already overachieved in the eyes of many, overcoming the graduation of Troy Bell and the offseason departure of guard Ryan Sidney. Notre Dame has underachieved, as many expected them to contend for the Big East title once Chris Thomas pulled out of the NBA draft. Instead, the Irish has been terribly inconsistent and come off a loss at Rutgers in which they failed to compete.
In Torin Francis and Thomas, Mike Brey has one of the Big East's better inside-outside combos, while BC will counter with senior Uka Agbai and relatively inexperienced PG Louis Hinnant. The Irish have a big worry of their own in containing forward Craig Smith, one of the better players in the country you know little about. He's a playmaker from the post and is currently playing extremely well, having scored 20 or more points in seven of his last 11 games, and has emerged as one of the leaders for a squad that start a pair of freshmen and sophomores.
Notre Dame has actually been a fairly strong road team, going 4-2 against the number, while BC, despite a 9-2 SU mark at the Conte Forum, is only 3-4 ATS. That said, the Eagles have performed well in recent games against UConn and Pittsburgh, hanging around in both and really seeing their confidence grow as a result. That could ultimately be the difference.
Iowa @ Michigan State
Here come the Spartans. They're used to flirting with disaster, having done this just last season, starting off methodically and building momentum with a big February push, eventually ending up in the NCAA Tournament's Elite Eight. The same appears to be happening this year, as Tom Izzo's team has won four of five games, with the only loss coming in overtime.
They have an abundance of talent that finally seems to have jelled together, and quite frankly, Izzo did his team a disservice with such an ambitious non-league schedule that has put them in this predicament. He's acknowledged that, but his team has recovered in league play and now shares the Big Ten lead. Despite that, they remain on the bubble due to a shoddy overall record.
Iowa is also on the bubble, coming in at 11-7 with an average conference mark. They're built entirely around talented guard Pierre Pierce's ability, and have just lost center Sean Sonderleiter, who left the team for personal reasons. Without him, the Hawkeyes will be minus a body to throw at Paul Davis, a future pro whose level of play has really skyrocketed since conference play began.
This might be the ripest game for our theory. At home, with more talent, clear matchup problems set, and that magical U-word in their favor, can the Spartans pull off a blowout and subsequent easy cover? Our checklist points to yes.
