wednesday ncaa (duke/virginia)..........

[gman2]

duke/virginia over 149.5

playing this one on the overnight line at olympic. kinda stumbled upon this one while i was capping the game itself. but after joggin the memory and rehasing the last few years meetings with these teams, its apparent that the cavs will run with duke, even if it means getting run out of the gym.

this game is similar to the msu/illinois total (as far as an inconsistent total compared to past meetings). recent weeks have caused a bit of a knee-jerk reaction since both teams havent been running and gunning; line reflects that. but cavs still a matador defensive team and theyve shown the ability to score points on duke both in charlottesville and durham.

perhaps some of the total reflects the liklihood of a duke blowout (since the line itself is 20+) and there isnt likely to be any fouling. but i dont think its gonna matter. i think this one falls around duke 90-72.

recent meetings:

duke 93-71 (164 pts)
duke 83-76 (159 pts)
duke 78-59 (137 pts)
duke 104-93 (197 pts)
virginia 87-84 (171 pts)
duke 94-81 (175 pts)
virginia 91-89 (180 pts)
duke 103-61 (164 pts)
duke 106-86 (192 pts)
duke 109-100 (209 pts)

again, maybe im a sucker. but i think its gonna take A LOT for this one to fall short of 149.5. it may not be in the 160s or 170s, but i dont see any way this one doesnt crack 155

shit - duke has cracked 90+ pts 4 of the L5 meetings in cameron

so slap the square tag on me. ill be hoping for a track meet, which is what this series has been the last few yrs.

==============================================
also playing:

kent 1h (-8) over buffalo

i think it takes a lot of nuts to back a buffalo team that has gotten absolutely hammered in their last four visit to the MAAC center. this is the one team that kent just pounds the piss out of every year in kent. yes, buffalo has improved but this is a house of horrors for them.

last four meetings at kent state:

kent 98 buffalo 55
*kent led 49-26 at halftime
*buffalo shot 30% from the field for the GAME

kent 91 buffalo 53
*kent led 49-16 at halftime
*buffalo shot 27% from the field for the GAME

kent 99 buffalo 65
*kent led 50-27 at halftime
*buffalo shot 32% from the field for the GAME

kent 89 buffalo 53
*kent led 43-25 at halftime
*buffalo shot 34% from the field for the GAME

kent by 33,38,34,and 36 in those 4
kent up 23,33,23, and 18 at the HALF in those

bulls are getting better, but cant see buffalo surviving the early haymaker that ksu always seems to connect when these two meet in kent.

 

[Superbear]

looks like we were thinking exactly the same ,..pinn has it at 150.5 but the last few nights Oly started puting up overnite totals also,...

 

[Sun Tzu]

gman there is a difference though - at least in my mind (ie maybe the numbers tell a different story) UVa was at least competitive in those years and their best chance to win was to run and gun. plus Duke's garbage time players are awful (but rat face of course lets the stud play until the last possible minute), so you not only are not going to get fouled but also no points at the end (eg tonight Texas didnt even score the last 4:40 of the game).

all that is just babble of course. the thing that catches my eye, quite frankly, is that for a UVa -Puke game that total is way too low. you know my feelings on rancid lines......

 

[Superbear]

this is a typical Duke a-hole team that shows no sportmanship and loves to run it up on their opponents,.. they were sticking it to Clemson in the last game in the end after the game was well in control

 

[lenniethelock]

be carefull,i think this is a good spot for duke and its four corner shit to stau under. i like it 79-53 dukies.this year more than before they like to lslow it down a little.gl

 

[gman2]

sun tzu:

i know what you mean, total seems a little low. i just think this game would have to be a uva/duke anomaly to stay under that number. obviously its possible. a complete rout (duke 85-58) aint gonna get it done for me, but im actually of the belief that uva sticks around in this game (at least inside the 20).

thanks for the reply.

btw- youre right, i noticed that about texas yesterday. saw they had 84 with 5:00 to go. and didnt score the rest of the way. so these totals can be tricky. lots of ebb and flow for sure.

 

[lowell]

would not advise risking too much on the over unless you expect duke to get 85 or more.i expect coach k to having team go back to defensive intensity that they missed vs clemson.he was very upset with game vs clemson.for those that keep saying he runs up the score the game was tied with 1.5 minutes to go before half.lead did not hit 20 unit 2.5 minutes to go.clemson missed 13 or 14 foul shots or they would have covered easily.clemson has rpi of 49 and had beaten unc a week earlier.i wish he would rest people too but he refuses to put team on court that is sloppy with ball or defense.still bench had 20% increase in minutes played that night and 60% increase in pts scored.last night nc state had starters in til 40 seconds to go.best 4 players played 38,36,34 and 33 minutes.do not think you can compare apples to apples with acc and big 12 and atlantic 10{someone was making st joe comparison to duke and running up score]rpi for acc.1,15,16,19,26,32,43,49,55.for big twelve 9,10,11,17,60,63,39,59,102,123,207{baylor }and 221.for atlantic ten-2,36,37,67,69,91,92,128,156,159,171,and 198.bottom line for bettors playing duke always remember in second half they will run shot clock down and limit possessions if they have big lead.i usually play their games under or it is no play for me.clemson went under by 1 point.maybe he wants to beat everyone badly.what is wrong with that.he has other acc teams somewhat intimidated.keep bashing him and duke.i have come to expect it.but be careful with over.

 

[gman2]

lowell:

thats the thing. i do think duke can get 85+. history in this series says as much, and the cavs defense is incredibly bad this year. and assuming the game is played semi-close to the line (duke leading by 15-20 most of the game) then i dont see a suffocating duke defense. i think this game can mirror the north carolina/virginia game in carolina. cavs outclassed, but willing to run and gun anyways. we'll see. respect your opinion though

 

[lowell]

wake scored 72 on duke in durham.i think the others were under 60.i think coach k wants this team to win with defense and not offense unlike a few yrs ago when he would let team hit 90 plus on a regular basis.i actually played duke -12.5 and under 71.5 in first half and duke -22 and under 151 for game.doubt i will win all of them unless duke wins 82-58.usually coack k corrects mistakes from previou game and he was quite displeased with clemson effort.that may be why he left them in game til end.good luck.i also played st louis,memphis and emich for 2 units.

 

[lowell]

well i just lost 2 ist half plays.when they shoot 12-25 from 3 pt and 25-30 from foul line what can you say.surprised at the number of fouls.thought acc refs had been informed they are over 5 per game called vs other conferences.hope deng is ok-he got hurt early.over looks good for you

 

[Z-Town Posse]

Great call Gman!! Appreciate the winner. You are a major asset to this forum.:142hail:

 

[RexBudler]

........nice call you are heating up big time

 

[Grizape]

Your on a "Total" hot streak

:clap: :Yep: :clap:

 

[genosays]

Nice call on Dukie boys to go over gman ..... you are indeed heating up and congrats!!

 

[worm44]

Nice play G...keep rolling

 

[skulldog]

Thanks g