i posted this in the nfl forum
i posted this in the nfl forum
here is an interesting article from sportsline.com who gives the edge to denver.
Feb. 24, 2004
By Pete Prisco
SportsLine.com Senior Writer
Star-for-star trades in the NFL happen about as much as Paul Tagliabue standing on a table and ripping off his shirt to a Janet Jackson tune.
That's what makes the potential Clinton Portis -Champ Bailey trade so intriguing. Two Pro Bowl players, both in the prime of their careers, may be changing teams when the NFL trading period officially begins on March 3.
Champ Bailey is a rare commodity as a premium cover corner.(Getty Images)
The Washington Redskins would trade Bailey, their outstanding corner, to the Broncos for Portis, arguably one of the game's best runners. The Redskins have also reportedly agreed to toss in a second-round pick, although why is a big question.
This should be a one-for-one deal.
The trade hinges on both players working out contracts with their new teams, which has their agents furiously trying to negotiate long-term deals. The Broncos took a step toward that becoming a reality by re-signing linebacker Al Wilson on Tuesday instead of being forced to put the franchise label on him, a number that would have been too cap restrictive.
If the four sides can agree to the new contracts -- we're talking a potential of $25 million in bonus money for the two players -- the deal will qualify as the biggest offseason move.
Stars simply do not get traded in this current salary-cap era, which is why this is so interesting.
And understand this: These are two star players.
In D.C., the thinking is the Redskins will be getting the star runner that coach Joe Gibbs needs to run his offense. Gibbs has already worked out a deal to get quarterback Mark Brunell, and promised him a running-game upgrade when he met with the Jaguars quarterback earlier this month.
Portis is that upgrade.
The Broncos will be getting a four-time Pro Bowl player in Bailey, who, at 25, is at the height of his career. Although there is some talk that he didn't play as well in 2003 as he had in previous years, Bailey is still arguably the first- or second-best corner in the game (I'll take Charles Woodson as the best).
In an era where the value of a true shutdown corner is rising every day, Bailey is that and more.
"The guy is a great player," said one NFC coach. "But is he worth what he's asking? That's to be debatable. Remember he turned down a $15 million signing bonus from the Redskins
Which is why he's on the block. Washington owner Dan Snyder has turned on his star, wanting him out in large part for not accepting the deal he was offered last fall. Word is this is now personal. So even though the Redskins weren't exactly a defensive juggernaut last season, Snyder is willing to part with Bailey.
"We would love to have Champ, I mean who wouldn't?" Gibbs said last week at the scouting combine. "He's one of the premier corners in the game. It's just that we felt like with what he was going to ask for, it was going to be hard for us do to that. So then it became a process of what else can you do here to help the football team?"
The Redskins franchised Bailey last week to prevent him from leaving as a free agent, with the idea of working out either a long-term deal or a trade, the latter more likely. Several teams have inquired about him, with the Lions, Jets and Broncos making offers.
The Lions are talking draft picks, the Jets have offered three players in a package that should be laughed at by the Redskins, and the Broncos offered Portis, who in two years has established himself as one of the best breakaway threats in the league.
But Portis isn't happy with his contract, nor should he be. The deal he signed as a second-round pick in 2002 has two years left on it, and he is scheduled to make $380,000 this season. Chump change for a star of his stature, a player with back-to-back 1,500-yard seasons.
At the Super Bowl, I found myself in a hotel elevator with Portis. After reminding him that he fell short of a 2,000-yard season, something he mentioned in an interview last summer, I told him he deserved a new contract.
"Go make an issue out of it," he said smiling.
Instead, he did. He told a Denver newspaper at the Pro Bowl that he might be a holdout this summer, then tried to backtrack after the story went public. There was no backtracking from the fact he was not happy with his money.
So Denver is ready to let him go, the thinking being that Quentin Griffin, who showed well as a rookie in a limited role last year, or another back taken in this coming draft, can do a quality job. The Broncos seem to have success with whoever takes the handoffs playing behind their line, which is why they feel Portis can be traded. Call it Mike Shanahan arrogance.
There is some truth to that theory since Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson and then Portis all had 1,000-yard seasons in the past six years for the Broncos, while others have flashed at times in backup roles (Derek Loville). So it's the system, right?
Maybe, but Denver does not have anyone on its roster with the big-play speed Portis brings.
So who wins if this deal goes down?
Here's who: The two players and the NFL.
The players both will get long-term deals, with big signing bonuses, although you can bet Bailey's will be significantly bigger. Just getting a new deal is important for Portis because he has two years left on his. The NFL wins because it stays in the front pages of the news smack dab in the middle of the NBA and NHL seasons with baseball in spring training.
As for which team wins, it's debatable. But here are factors to consider:
Shutdown corners are far more valuable than a good running back. In a league moving toward more wide-open football, a good corner is nearly as valuable as a good pass-rushing end. Backs can be found. Heck, Portis is a second-round pick, Terrell Davis came in the sixth round, Priest Holmes came in as an undrafted free agent. Edge: Broncos.
Portis is younger by two years, but the life expectancy of a running back is significantly shorter than a cover corner. Hits begin to take their toll on backs, which is why they usually fall off as they get close to 30. Good corners (see Troy Vincent) can play into their mid-30s. Edge: Broncos.
The Broncos will get an additional second-round pick, which could be used on a back such as Greg Jones of Florida State or Julius Jones of Notre Dame. If anybody can run it in their system -- their thinking remember, not mine -- maybe that player can get time as a rookie and have success. After giving up a third to get Brunell, Washington will be left with just three draft picks in the April draft. That's future franchise suicide. Edge: Broncos.
Add it all up, and Denver seemingly gets the best of this deal.
That said, this will be good for both teams.
Portis will give Gibbs the back he needs to feature in his offense. With all the counter plays and wide stuff the Redskins run, Portis, who is a favorite in this space, will put up huge numbers if the interior of the line improves. It's hard to simply look past his 5.5 per-carry average, the best in the league the past two seasons.
That's home-run speed.
Gibbs has traded for feature backs in the past. He traded a first-round pick to get George Rogers and first- and second-round picks to get Gerald Riggs. The difference is those two players were on the down slope of their careers. Portis is on the rise.
It's hard to argue with Gibbs and his track record. The guy has won three Super Bowls with three different quarterbacks. He's a legend who has come home to resurrect the franchise. When he met with the media last Saturday at the combine, he was at ease with himself, staying in the media room for close to an hour.
This is not a guy who is feeling pressure by any means. He knows the game, so why buck what he wants to do, even if it defies logic?
If Portis is the player he thinks will make his offense what it needs to be, then maybe he knows the value that should be placed on that.
As for Shanahan, he's trying to make amends for two major corner failures, former first-round picks Deltha O'Neal and Willie Middlebrooks, neither of whom was a starter last season.
They've been major busts, and after seeing Peyton Manning carve his defense to shreds in a playoff loss, maybe Shanahan has had enough. The second-round pick he gets will help make this deal his advantage.
But what if Portis goes on to rush for 2,000 yards and gets the 'Skins to a Super Bowl? Or what happens if Bailey helps the Denver pass defense get better and gets them into the big game in Jacksonville next fall?
Regardless, it's a lot of fun to see stars being traded for each other.
That doesn't mean you, Keyshawn Johnson and Joey Galloway.