saturday ncaa........

[gman2]

lots of shops with different overnight lines. grabbed these at pinnalce and olympic before the move:

stronger plays:
rhode island (+10.5) over st.joseph (will add small moneyline when it becomes available)
cincinnati (-1) over unc-charlotte


normal plays:
east tennessee (+2) over charleston
toledo (+3) over western michigan
oregon (+14) over stanford
gonzaga (-23) over santa clara


additions:
--------------------
texas/texas tech over 142.5
east tennessee state 2h (-2.5)
tennessee/auburn under 139.5
arizona state 2h (-3.5) over washington

 

[Toto]

Gman, How ya been, ever hear from Chucky? Haven't talked to him all season!! Everyone will be on Mizzu tom. looks too easy for me. Hope we have a great March. GL

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Toto, what up, little dog? Follow the Yellow Brick road to the Brinks truck.

I'm playing an outlandish # of plays on Saturday (listed in diff thread).

I always see your buddy Doyle on the WSOP.

Hope all's good. No opinion for me on Kan St/Mizzou.

 

[gman2]

rhode island
definitely feel like this is st.joes biggest challenge. hawks havent been tested since mid-december in california. this -- to me-- is the biggest test st.joes will face in the regular season. been waiting for this game for a month. ive got nothing bad to say about st.joes, and --while i dont think theyve got enough in the middle to go deep into the tourney- what theyre doing in the regular season speaks for itself and is impressive. just think rhode island is the one team in the a-10 that can hang with them. rams hit the glass hard, and they held a huge edge in the first meetings (+22 on the glass ). that might hold up in phily but not sure if it can hold up in rhode island.

cincinnati
revenger for the bearcats, but aside from that, just feel cincy is much better. ive been a big believer in the 49ers as a dog, but in a virtual pick-em, i dont think theyre quite good enough to get it done. to their credit, charlotte beat louisville on this floor, but cincy is a different story. the whaley distraction is gone and, although he is a big-time talent, the circus surrounding him was a distraction and there seems to be some closure in the situation now. cincy wins a key conference usa road game

east tennessee
charleston no pushover at home but ive been riding the bucs this year and really feel theyre one of the best mid-majors in the country. long winning streak for etsu and i dont think it ends here.

toledo
rockets lost a tough on in bowling green on thursday but this is a big game for them. they got smashed in kalamazoo a few weeks ago but in toledo i think its a different story. broncos have been pretty dominant this season regardless of venue but theyve been a little more vulnerable on the road. rockets have the talent to win outright- just need a good defensive effort. triplett and villegas shot a combined 5-20 in the first meeting. theyre much better than that and i expect an outright win here. aside from a puzzling loss to eastern michigan, toledo has established a solid home court edge this season

 

[Howie's Hot]

GL Gman....except on RI ....I think St. Joes is due for a blow out...either way one of us is happy...

How

 

[ezpickin]

Howie,

Due for a blowout? They have been a virtual covering machine...what would u call what they have been doing? :shrug:

 

[The Big Tease]

Gotta play devil's advocate here gman.....

I know what you are thinking on the Rhode Island game......and I am guessing that it is a play more against St Joe's than a play ON Rhode Island. At least it has to be. According to the rankings that I use and seem to be very accurate.....If you rank teams ONLY based on their performance at home in the ATL 10, St Joe's, GW, Xavier, Dayton, Richmond, and Temple all grade out to be tougher home teams than Rhode Island. Rhode Island has beaten a couple of top notch teams at home such as Providence and Charlotte, but has since dropped games to Xavier, UMASS, Duquesne, and Temple at home......

I guess if they play a great game they have a chance. But St Joes has beaten better home teams by at least the spread in this game.....they beat Temple by 12, Xavier by 8 (Who is a MUCH better home team than Rhode Island), beat Richmond by 11, beat Delaware by 21 (Who has a comparable home ranking to RI).

I dunno.....I wish you good luck, but I cant hop on. I gotta sit this one out. I think you may be waiting for St Joe's to fall off the wagon, and Rhode Island probably doesnt put fear in their eyes. Now if they were making the trip to George Washington or Xavier this late in the season with an undefeated season on the line.....then maybe the pressure gets to be too much.....unfortunatly their schedule set up real nice for them......they wont lose this game. They may not cover, but I'm not gonna bet on it.

Good Luck man!

 

[Howie's Hot]

EZ they went through a stretch of losing 3 in a row ATS that's mostly what i was referring to they are 2-3 their last 5 ats..was getting worried vegas caught up to them a little...

GL
How

 

[gman2]

tease:

nothing wrong with disagreeing/being on opposite sides. i just am holding to what i said a month ago: rhode island is the only team that has a legit shot to beat st.joes in a-10 play. the conference as a whole is pathetic and -- while i dont think joes will go deep into the tourney -- im certainly not willing to back the fordhams and massachusets' because the hawks are far far superior to the teams theyve played on their schedule the last month and my goal is not to "try to win betting against st.joseph". if you recall, before the villanova game i said that the only time i would play against st.joes would be a month from now (which is today) in rhode island. it IS a play on rhode island. they give st.joes matchup problems and the rams won outright here last year. if the rams outrebound st.joes +22 this time around, the game will be much closer. riu game joes a damn good game in the first meeting. all in all- ive just felt riu is the only team in the a-10 (on st.joes schedule) that had any real chance to upset in the last month or so. we'll see

 

[vinnie]

Where's my total :shrug:

 

[freelancc]

Where's my total :shrug:

 

[gman2]

vinnie:

im gonna try this one for a unit.....texas/texas tech over 142.5
*raiders allowing a ton of pts on the road this year
*first meeting had a good pace, just a lot of bricks.
*assuming line is correct, texas should lead by 8-10 for most of the game and raiders will have to continue to push the ball. overs when the line is low double-digits are normally pretty good plays

we'll see

 

[Dr. Doom]

overs when the line is low double-digits are normally pretty good plays

Just curious as to why.

I would think that with DD favs there wouldn't be much fouling at the end of games and that would keep the total lower.

 

[gman2]

doom:

the range im referring to is about 9-to-12 point favorites. i can see where youre coming from. my beliefs is that (with the general assumption that the vegas line is accurate) the chalk will hold an 8-10 point lead for most of the game. dog has to keep pace. once the line gets past 15- youre talking about a mismatch and (like you said) its likely there will be no fouling at the end. i just think in the 9-12 point chalk range that theres just enough balance between the chalk being much better but the dog not being completely outclassed where the game could get out of hand. not sure if that makes any sense. in sum: not a total mismatch but not likely to be so close a game that it becomes a half-court battle. and its nothin set in stone. ive played unders and overs in all ranges. i just give a 2nd look to overs in this spread range.

 

[Superbear]

with this theory in mind I think I found a nice total. Iowa State/Nebraska over 138.5,..last meeting was

1/10/2004 Sat Neb 74 Iow 89


Iowa St. are 14-7-0 OU in their last 21 games
Iowa St. are 4-2-0 OU in their last 6 away

 

[mjalam]

good call on URI....st. joes had to cool down some day...and today was that day...but they still got the win which is pretty impressive considering how crappy they shot

 

[buddy]

You had this analysis nailed, screwed, glued and double-tatooed.

Excellent !!

 

[Kdogg21]

great call on RI bud, good luck the rest of the way!!!!

 

[vinnie]

Thanks g for another total winner

Hope I didn't get you on A&M They took a dump on me in the 2nd half

 

[ajoytoy]

great call on URI!!

gonna be a tough one in the Queen City today


gl G