You bet preseason? Some thoughts...

[Terryray]

I bet it last year for first time. Made a killing first few weeks mainly looking for stupid mismatches and tired teams. Like AZ pitching aces with regular starters at positions vs Detroit scrubs and minor league tryouts, -150. I didn't care what the line was most of time. Went 22-10-2, +10.29 units flat betting.

Worked wonders for a while. Had to spend hour or more researching who just might play. After a few weeks got much more difficult with more regulars starting and became like the real season, but with less info. I stopped then. One of my last posts here...........http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=87621&highlight=preseason


I coulda had just beginner's luck. Fletcher warned it was a dangerous enterprise. His thoughts here..............http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=85706&highlight=preseason


and more Fletcher here..........http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=32788&highlight=preseason


Preseason starts in full swing next Thurs, March 4. Schedule here........http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/schedule/spring_training_04.jsp


Any thoughts? Any of you try it? Anyone gonna try it this year??

 

[Davoso]

I remember thinking last year how crazy it was to try to bet these games but admittedly read alot of posts here with guys who were dead on and did very well.

Will probably follow posts closely again and may play a few but prefer not to lose the bankroll before the real seaon begins!

 

[bjfinste]

I will likely bet on them, at least on the Mon-Wed during the NCAA tourney when there aren't any hoops games. Play them very small, of course. Or else a couple small parlays. I've always felt games like this should just be action/for-fun bets, but hell, if you can put up a record like 22-10-2, +10.29 units, that's a nice little way to start out the year.

My favorite part about betting spring training is that there are almost always games during the day, which always helps the day go by faster.

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

I personally would stay away from pre-season games. There are just way too many variables. I mean WAY to many variables. Before I stress those, I said it before and I'll say it again, that it's hard enough to make consistent money doing this everyday. With that in mind if you find something you are good at stick with it.
Terryray if you made 10 units flat betting last preseason kudos to you. Could be a fluke, could be something you are really good at. If you can beat it, I hope you do and I hope you make a killing. Before delving full into it and wagering large amounts of cash, remember that one season doesn't mean anything. Could have been a statistical anomality(?). What I mean is you could have gotten lucky. READ THIS CAREFULLY. I am not here to bash and I mean no ill will with this. Just becuase I don't believe in betting it doesn't mean you can't. I'm not saying you got lucky at all. You might have done your homework and I suspect that you put a good deal of effort into it. And like I said if you are going to do it again this year I truly hope you win +10 units again. But be careful and if it starts off slow for you, don't chase; somehow i suspect you are seasoned enough not too and hopefully you get off to a good start.

My problems with preseason baseball stems from the fact that nobody, and I mean nobody really cares who wins. Like you said, there are situations where at team or manager will say, lets get a win today. And that might be nice and all, but wanting a win doesn't always equate to one. The majority of the managers do NOT care how they do in these games. Only that they get good effort and see improvement. Up and comers and old vets bust their ass out there while "locked into the lineup" players don't play as hard. Coaches try a million different lineups and situations with different players. Some pitchers throw an inning you rarely get righty lefty matchups late in games. Managers want to see how different players react to different things. A manager might leave a middle relief pitcher in a tight situation when in the season he would go for a better pitcher matchup to see how he responds.
Another thing that is hard to get a handle on is the umpires. Its really difficult to find any info on them as most aren't major league quality all the time. Not that they are bad, but it's difficult to find anything about their strike zones.
As for info pre-game, its not as difficult to get as it used to be with the advent of the internet, but what does it really mean. For example, lets say that you get info that Randy Johnson is going to throw 45 pitches on a given day. And he is facing the tigers who are throwing out their scrub team of split squadders. Then you look and get a price of only -120 and think WOW, what a bargain. Randy proceeds to strike out the first 12 batters and shuts out the side dominantly for 3 straight innings. But, the Dbacks only get one against whoever, and they have veterans getting work the rest of the way, and Arizona is throwing out their 20th round draft pick the rest of the way. I mean there really is no edge. I'm ranting I know, but like I said I wish you the best and hope you do well, but for others, I perceive it as coin flipping. If you are forced to bet and need something to do, I would read a book instead, but if you still need something, I would bet dogs only, cause in a coin flip in most instances, I'd rather get plus return on my money.

 

[thomasj19]

I do well at preseason baseball. Last year I was 17-8 and that is about the norm for me. Similiar results for me in preseason football. There are two big reasons for this. One - linemakers don't care very much. Limits are lower and the lines are more generic. Information that I find the books generally don't have. Both sports are really similiar in this regard. Football it is QB rotation and playing rotation for starters. In baseball it is starting pitchers and how long starters may play.

It is all based on information. Remember that even the best information does not always win. But in preseason baseball and preseason football I have an edge. And I like playing when I have an edge against the books - because it does not happen very often.

To those that say it is all a crapshoot I say I like this better than the regular season. Here I have an edge - maybe it's only for three innings but that is better than the regular season where any edge I have is offset by the price. Here you rarely lay more than -130 or -140.

Just my two cents and you will see me post plays as usual this season.

Have a successful season.

Tom