Vegas

[The Big Tease]

I have no time to post much.....but I got Kasey Kahne at 37-1 at 5 dimes, but the odds have since been taken down.....if he comes back at anywhere near 20-1, you need to bang him. He has a GREAT shot this weekend. The Dodges will rule the day again......Ryan Newman, Bill Elliott, Kahne and Mayfield are dialed in and will be through the weekend.

I am loving life with Kahne at 37-1, holy shit!

 

[The Big Tease]

Glad I got in that bet before qualifying because he is sitting on the Pole as expected! Wish I could have found some odds on him for qualifying.....bet I could have made a mint.....oh well.....I feel pretty good at 37-1

I also have McMurray at 20-1......

Another Dodge/Roush dominated race

 

[Redfish]

Like the Kasey play.....Oly has him @18-1.....GL

 

[djv]

Dam I thought you had it. It took one of the big boys to knock him off. I was sure pulling for him to slip by Harvick. Still a great call on your part. I would not have placed him that high.

 

[The Big Tease]

djv: My bet is for tomorrows race, lol

I was gonna bet Kahne for todays race at 17-1, but didnt do it. So I still gotta shot.....Kahne is a lot better in short runs tomorrow, so if the race shapes up for him, I have a shot. There are a lot of cars that are strong tomorrow....I will have a full writeup on this race tomorrow

 

[The Big Tease]

Well.....I have kinda toned down my plays this week for a couple of reasons.....

First of all, when I play a lot of plays, it is too damn stressful worrying about that many damn cars.

Second, a lot of teams have decent setups this week. Lots of teams tested at this venue.

With that being said....one main point that I suggest you stick to this week, is go AGAINST Dale Jr and Waltrip this weekend. 35 teams tested at Vegas.....the DEI cars were not them. They have not been good on their average times during any practice session and have consistantly shown that they both are 20-25 place cars this weekend. I have said that Junior has been garbage before and he has proven me wrong......but I just think that they are behind too many teams that know what they are doing this week. With that being said here are my first plays that I will list...

Jeff Gordon over Junior +110 (100 to win 110)
Bobby Labonte over Junior -130 (130 to win 100)
Tony Stewart over Junior -140 (140 to win 100)
Dale Junior to finish worse than 10.5 position (270 to win 200)
Elliott Sadler over Michael Waltrip (130 to win 100)

So how is that for betting against one guy?

I also really like the Dodges this weekend. The bad thing is that there are so damn many of them. Earlier in the week I bet Kasey Kahne at 37-1 and he since won the pole, and his odds dropped to 15-1, so I feel pretty good about that. I am not sure he is worth that price, because he seems a lot better on the short run, but at 37-1 I am pretty excited.

I also picked up Jamie McMurray at 20-1 just because his current form is very nice and he is learning how to run upfront....his odds have since dipped to 16-1.....still not bad.

One guy that I am telling you right now has a great car and hasnt shown it yet is Sterling Marlin. He is great at this track, has won here before, and the only reason he has not been fast in practice is because he has purposely been running on old tires to see how much he can get out of them and how fast he can run. He is going to be fast.....So I have added the following 2 plays.

Marlin over Jarrett +115 (100 to win 115)
Marlin to finish better than 11.5 position (105 to win 100)
Marlin Top 3 +650 (50 to win 325)

That is all I got this week....should keep the stress down. Big Marlin fan.....Junior, go ahead and crash out. And Kahne, get that first win.

Good Luck!

 

[topspinner]

Tease, appreciate the info, are you sure that junior did not test at Vegas. The following is copied from another website:

Dale Earnhardt Jr.- Las Vegas has been a hit or miss deal for Junior. He?s finished inside the top 5 twice here and outside the top 30 twice as well. Earnhardt finished fourth here last year and had a strong test here during the preseason

 

[The Big Tease]

topspinner:

Junior did not test in Vegas in December.....now Waltrip did, but it was not a good test in their opinion. So Junior is going off of notes and not car experience.....

Trust me.....he will be junk today. If he finishes in the Top 10 today, I wont ever post a NASCAR pick here ever again

 

[The Big Tease]

In fact....I will go as far as to say that I bet anything that Junior will wreck his car today......Junior does not have the patience to ride in a bad car....He will more than likely force the issue and wreck his car.....he has never been one to ride out a bad race car for points.....if he is not out front, he will go to hell.

Count on it

 

[The Big Tease]

Forgot to post this a couple weeks ago, but this is after 2 races.....I was a little pissed after that last race....but it wasnt too bad, we only lost 100.00....



SEASON:

OUTRIGHTS: 1-6 (+190.00)
PROPS+MATCHUPS: 10-8 (-22.50)
OVERALL (+167.50)

 

[The Big Tease]

And for the record keeping purposes.....I have Kahne at 37-1 for 30.00.....

and I have McMurray at 20-1 for 20.00

 

[USC Gamecock]

Tease,

Good luck today. Good to see some other race fans here at MJ's. I would definitely skew my matchups towards the Dodge/Roush cars here at Vegas. Jack Rousch seems to have this track figured out as his drivers have won 4 out of 6 races here. I may even throw a bone on the #6 to win at 22-1. Where did you find your JR. matchup odds? I need to get a piece of that. I LOVE that Stewart over JR. matchup.

Vegas is a strange track. Busch (Kurt) always seems to qualify well, but seldom runs well. Same with Harvick as he tears up the Busch races, only to blow the Sunday races. I don't think Gordon will run well today, especially after blowing his engine yesterday. I look for Kennseth, Newman, J. Johnson, Stewart, Marlin, Khane, McMurray, Mayfield, J. Burton and even old #6 to run well today. I totally agree that JR. won't be seeing the checkered flag today, this just isn't his track (watch, he'll probably win now).

Good luck to all.

 

[cramer]

I am going to take a sholt with 3 Fords today.

D Jarrett 24-1 for $20

M Martin 30-1 for $20

Both these guys made big improvements during the 2nd and 3rd practice sessions and both are over due for a win. Besides these guys are veterans and should know how to take care of these softer compound tires.

M Kenseth 10-1 for $20

The Rousch Ford's have done very well here in the past winning 4 of the 6 cup events and seem to have the upper hand in Vegas, i will stick with the trend and put a little on the defending Cup Champ, last years Vegas winner and last weeks winner Kenseth.

 

[The Big Tease]

very nice job with kenseth cramer.....i myself, am starting to hate that little prick. he is taking money right from my pocket. Race just wasnt long enough for kahne.....it is so damn hard to pick a winner in this chit.....i am always the bridesmaid, never the bride, shit!

dale jr was trash as predicted though, lol

 

[topspinner]

Tease, good call on Junior. I was not just questioning you, just passing on something that I had read.

 

[djv]

Good work. In fact this whole thread was good info. I salute all.