Northern Illinois/Buffalo analysis

[GFarrow8410]

Was looking for the line to be a little lower. If this game were to be played a couple weeks ago it would have been much lower. Playing Buffalo has had better value the last couple weeks, but I still believe this is a solid play. This is by far the biggest sporting event ever for the University at Buffalo. They are pulling out bleachers on both sides. This place is going to be busting at the seems. 8,000 + expected. Whenever this team has a big crowd to play for they have come up huge. Beating Kent State by 16. Outscoring Ohio 47-18 in the first half. This is going to be the biggest crowd of the season. They already beat Northern Illinois at Northern Illinois by 12. This game is HUGE for the school. The team and the fans are going for blood. Buffalo has been bottom feeders since the day they joined the MAC. The crowd and the players will not let up until the final buzzer sounds whether the lead is 10 or 30. No real worry about a backdoor cover here. This team has real talent. Expect Calvin Cage to have a huge game off the bench. This guy is lights out when the crowd is behind him. They got a 6?11 freshman Center Ibidhi, who is a threat to shoot the 3 (4-4 against Kent). He will pull the center for Northern Illinois out from under the hoop and leave backdoor cuts and offensive boards open all night. Buffalo has so many weapons this year. Doesn?t seem to matter who you give the ball to lately on this team. Jordan, Cage, Bird, Middleton, Battle, Ibidhi, Gilbert. Save maybe Bortz there all a threat to put the ball in the basket. Ohio played Wisconsin this year and Ohio coach said Buffalo was just as good and top 25 caliber the way we played them. Buffalo has 6?5,6?6,6?11 players who can raise up and shoot the 3 over anybody. Over the last 5 games they have beaten Kent State by 16, Miami by 16 (in Miami), destroyed Ohio, outplayed Akron in Akron. They tied for the most points EVER scored against Miami on their home floor(84). There defense is stifling especially on the home floor. Held Ohio and Indiana State to 18 and 13 points in a half. Buffalo has covered the spread by 9+ points in 6 straight games (8 of their last 9). Only real worry I have is if the Refs call this game real tight and Northern Illinois gets to the line a lot. If that doesn?t happen should be fine. Northern Illinois is hot but Buffalo is hotter. NI most notable win was against Miami at home where they won by 8. Buffalo beat Miami by 16 at Miami. This is a different team then at the beginning of the season. 7 wins in a row, they?ll make it 8 with ease. Added note: Northern Illinois plays horrible on the road, 1-12 away this year. They don?t play well in unfriendly arenas, and it will be very unfriendly for them Monday night.

Goin against hellah and Taking Buffalo -10

Note: If you have empire sports this game will be broadcasted live on tv.

 

[gman2]

good post. can always respect guys who can break it down like that.

having said that- you have been preaching 'value,value,value' on buffalo the last week or so.

i just dont see any 'value' whatsoever. is buffalo hot? absolutely.
but buffalo has gone from taking points at home this year, to games close to pick, to a short chalk........and now a DOUBLE DIGIT chalk?

a few months ago, northern illinois was a 14.5 point dog in notre dame. now theyre a 10 point dog in buffalo?

obviously the course of the season adjusts lines, but that just puts some perspective on it.

also- and this is key:

how can you comfortably lay double digit chalk with a team that shoots 66% from the line? theres a lot of similarities between buffalo and maryland. both teams are athletic and capable of pulling upsets....but cant really trust em in chalk roles because of their FT shooting

will i be backing northern illinois? absolutely not. theyre equally as bad from the line and have underachieved this year. then again- that could be scary, as this is a new season.

if anything, buffalo would have more value at the mac tourney where theyll be dogs again.

enjoy the game.

buffalo should hold a 7-9 point lead the whole game in my opinion.

 

[jmizeus]

2 months ago they beat them by 12 in there own back-yard. dont see anything wrong with this line at all. not saying im going with it, wont make my decision till atleast tomorrow nite,but bulls are hot and with the big win there last time. dont think its inflated at all.

 

[jmizeus]

this could be a big play for me gfarrow. waiting to see more numbers hopefully by tomorow.gl2u. but either way its buffalo or nothing

 

[GFarrow8410]

good post. can always respect guys who can break it down like that.

having said that- you have been preaching 'value,value,value' on buffalo the last week or so.

i just dont see any 'value' whatsoever. is buffalo hot? absolutely.
but buffalo has gone from taking points at home this year, to games close to pick, to a short chalk........and now a DOUBLE DIGIT chalk?

a few months ago, northern illinois was a 14.5 point dog in notre dame. now theyre a 10 point dog in buffalo?

obviously the course of the season adjusts lines, but that just puts some perspective on it.

also- and this is key:

how can you comfortably lay double digit chalk with a team that shoots 66% from the line? theres a lot of similarities between buffalo and maryland. both teams are athletic and capable of pulling upsets....but cant really trust em in chalk roles because of their FT shooting

will i be backing northern illinois? absolutely not. theyre equally as bad from the line and have underachieved this year. then again- that could be scary, as this is a new season.

if anything, buffalo would have more value at the mac tourney where theyll be dogs again.

enjoy the game.

buffalo should hold a 7-9 point lead the whole game in my opinion.

My take on the free throw situation is this. They haven't been hitting their free throws and there still winning comfortably. Imagine if they start knocking them down? When a team shoots over 50% from 3 and is getting 2nd chance oppurtunities on half of those missed free throws in the end it doesnt really matter. and thats another thing... northern illinois is a small team. Buffalo should control the boards all day. center is 6'11 and Reggie will play him out there with Bortz at PF who is 6'10. NIU tallest starter is 6'8 then 6'6. The more i look into this game the more i like it.


I feel like if this team keeps up the intensity and kind of play they have had over this 8 game winning streak I don't see how they don't win by at least 15. They will have a let-down probably early in the tourny but not in front of 8,000 fans at home.
They played ugly in Akron and still walked out of there with an 8 point victory. No Tarver on Northern Illinois to keep this game close. Should be an exciting game I just hope they come out on top.... by more then 10 .

If anyone else has any input feel free to put in your two cents.

 

[THE KOD]

GF

Do you see any chance in hell that Northern Ill can win
this game outright ?

thanks

KOD

 

[Valuist]

NIU is 6-6 ATS on the road this year; not great but not so hideously bad. They've also won 2 SU, not one.

 

[GFarrow8410]

Valuist- Thanks, someone told me they were 1-12 but I never looked into it, thanks for the heads up.

Scott- Of course they have a chance. I mean it's a basketball game. If buffalo comes out shooting cold and someone on NIU gets hott anything can happen. Either Buffalo would have to play worse then they have in the past 5 or so games or someone on NIU will have to get ridiculously hott for NIU to have a chance to win.

I have been on NIU message boards and just get the feeling this team is packing it in. They have no hope at coming into Buffalo and beating us. One guy said how embarassed he was with the loss to western michigan and can't wait until the "thrashing" they get from Buffalo is over. There are no posts insinuating they will even make it past the first round.

I think all will be told in the first 5 minutes of the game. If Buffalo comes out hott they'll make me look like a genius as it could eaisly turn into a blowout.
However, Buffalo could come out like they did against farleigh dickinson earlier this year and it could blow up in my face. A let-down will happen with this team. I just don't feel like it will be tonight. Good luck guys I think i'm done looking into this, my money is down and I feel pretty good about it.

 

[TheNuts]

Admittedly, I probably look at trends too much, but Northern Ill is 5-1 ATS on the road against teams with winning records (0-4 against teams with losing records).

GF, I think your analysis is solid...just fear that NI might get up for teams that are supposed to beat them soundly.

Good luck.

 

[Cohanick]

I dont think Buffalo will have any problem winning and covering in this game. I look for a 13-15 point win for a very solid Buffalo team. Good luck!!!

 

[jmizeus]

either way should be great to watch. funny thing is every post im reading there all on n.illinois 3' hrs till tip-off. going out for some dinner and a few drinks,be home for the tip.gl buddy lets cash this tix

 

[gman2]

nice win. didnt look good for 30:00 when the game was tight, but bulls pulled away down the stretch. nice job

 

[Send it in]

Nice call Gfarrow. Way to step up. Gotta give credit where credit is due and you know your team dude! again congrats

 

[hellah10]

nice hit farrow...good luck in round 2...

 

[GFarrow8410]

Thanks guys... actually just got back from the hospital. Had like a minor heart problem in the first half at the game and almost fainted. Guess I was too stressed out over exams and capping this game lol. Good to come back and see I won though... think i did good on my exam too , layed ALOT of dough on this game. When I left we were down two.

Saw Ibidhi had a huge game, can't believe were going to have this guy for three more years. Great win for us. Need a break from this shit or I'm gonna kill myself. I'm too young for this.

Congrats to anyone who followed me.

 

[mcity]

nice job!!!

 

[TheNuts]

Very nice, GF...happily you talked me out of play on the game...and I got lucky on the 1st half (+5.5), making us both winners!

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