stange thursday. started off terribly but finished strong. hit the big plays (oregon, toledo) but basically got smashed on the rest. not sure if thats good or bad sign; nice to hit the bigger ones but giving it all back on a handful of small ones is sure pointless.
for friday:
(stronger plays)
kent state (-4.5) over miami,ohio
arizona (-6) over washington
(normal plays)
oregon (+10.5) over stanford
florida (-2.5) over alabama
utah moneyline (+120) over byu
western michigan/toledo 1h under 72.5
add: kent state 2h (-3.5) over miami,ohio (adding more to original)
add: florida 2h (-3) over alabama
add: arizona 2h (-4.5) over washington
add: unlv/colorado state over 76.5 for the 2nd half
=============================================
kent state
most of this writeup is in the mac thread posted last night. when i played the flashes, i was originally expecting to have to lay 5. line dropped to 4.5 at olympic. no complaints, but ill basically count it as a 5pt chalk. strong play for me regardless
edit: * kent state in a very rare double revenger. not many teams beat kent twice in a season. i will be laying the chalk here, mainly because of what i read after the kent/miami game two weeks ago. kent had miami down double digits on senior night at kent (45-28 with 13:54 left). they blew the lead and let miami come back to win. there were lots of quotes from haut and jakeway about being embarrassed and not representing kent and the kent basketball tradition well on senior night. miami is always a tough out in the mac tourney and the redhawks could appear to be a live dog. but i think kent in a double revenger (with the way they choked the last one away fresh in the mind of the kent seniors) --- flashes win and cover that 5 points. im laying it. miami has been shooting too many 3s for my liking lately. when theyre hot, theyre good. but kent is not gonna give em those clean looks that marshall and ball state did in miami's most recent games. both teams have outstanding defenses. but kent has more offensive weapons and the angles favor kent imo.
=============================================
arizona
i think they make a statement here. got swept in the season series and played one of those games sans stoudamire. but this is more anti-washington. i think they let down here. every writer and talking head told them they needed to just win one game in the pac10 tourney to get into the dance. they did that (in come from behind fashion no less). they know theyre in, win or lose now. sure they WANT to win this game. nobody goes in it not caring. but they had a huge emotional win vs stanford, followed by their 'necessary win' vs ucla. zona wins convincingly in my opinion. this is just the kind of spot where i think the points are too good to be true.
=============================================
oregon
my sleeper in the pac10. stanford has not been a good pac10 tourney team in recent years. they won yesterday simply by throwing better players on the floor. thats not the case here. if stanford thinks theyll win just by showing up- we could see a very tight game. ducks got smashed in stanford, but absolutely should have won the game in oregon. expecting a usc/arizona kind of game. favorite gets out early but dog keeps it very close in the end
=============================================
florida
gators got smacked by kentucky but prior to that, they seemed to be rallying around each other after dreijer bailed on them. normally florida is a good go-against in the sec tourney but i think they need a deep run this year. their mentality this time around is a little different (not being ranked and caught sleeping)
=============================================
utah
as usual, gonna be a battle between these two teams. i think the byu crowd willed the cougars to a win a few weeks ago. on a neutral court, utah is not outclassed. theyre one of the few teams that can match byus size and have an answer for araujo. gimmie a veteran team as a short dog in the conference tourney to get it done.
for friday:
(stronger plays)
kent state (-4.5) over miami,ohio
arizona (-6) over washington
(normal plays)
oregon (+10.5) over stanford
florida (-2.5) over alabama
utah moneyline (+120) over byu
western michigan/toledo 1h under 72.5
add: kent state 2h (-3.5) over miami,ohio (adding more to original)
add: florida 2h (-3) over alabama
add: arizona 2h (-4.5) over washington
add: unlv/colorado state over 76.5 for the 2nd half
=============================================
kent state
most of this writeup is in the mac thread posted last night. when i played the flashes, i was originally expecting to have to lay 5. line dropped to 4.5 at olympic. no complaints, but ill basically count it as a 5pt chalk. strong play for me regardless
edit: * kent state in a very rare double revenger. not many teams beat kent twice in a season. i will be laying the chalk here, mainly because of what i read after the kent/miami game two weeks ago. kent had miami down double digits on senior night at kent (45-28 with 13:54 left). they blew the lead and let miami come back to win. there were lots of quotes from haut and jakeway about being embarrassed and not representing kent and the kent basketball tradition well on senior night. miami is always a tough out in the mac tourney and the redhawks could appear to be a live dog. but i think kent in a double revenger (with the way they choked the last one away fresh in the mind of the kent seniors) --- flashes win and cover that 5 points. im laying it. miami has been shooting too many 3s for my liking lately. when theyre hot, theyre good. but kent is not gonna give em those clean looks that marshall and ball state did in miami's most recent games. both teams have outstanding defenses. but kent has more offensive weapons and the angles favor kent imo.
=============================================
arizona
i think they make a statement here. got swept in the season series and played one of those games sans stoudamire. but this is more anti-washington. i think they let down here. every writer and talking head told them they needed to just win one game in the pac10 tourney to get into the dance. they did that (in come from behind fashion no less). they know theyre in, win or lose now. sure they WANT to win this game. nobody goes in it not caring. but they had a huge emotional win vs stanford, followed by their 'necessary win' vs ucla. zona wins convincingly in my opinion. this is just the kind of spot where i think the points are too good to be true.
=============================================
oregon
my sleeper in the pac10. stanford has not been a good pac10 tourney team in recent years. they won yesterday simply by throwing better players on the floor. thats not the case here. if stanford thinks theyll win just by showing up- we could see a very tight game. ducks got smashed in stanford, but absolutely should have won the game in oregon. expecting a usc/arizona kind of game. favorite gets out early but dog keeps it very close in the end
=============================================
florida
gators got smacked by kentucky but prior to that, they seemed to be rallying around each other after dreijer bailed on them. normally florida is a good go-against in the sec tourney but i think they need a deep run this year. their mentality this time around is a little different (not being ranked and caught sleeping)
=============================================
utah
as usual, gonna be a battle between these two teams. i think the byu crowd willed the cougars to a win a few weeks ago. on a neutral court, utah is not outclassed. theyre one of the few teams that can match byus size and have an answer for araujo. gimmie a veteran team as a short dog in the conference tourney to get it done.
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