Do hedge or not?

[ageecee]

Had a 3 team parlay working that is now reduced to a 2-team parlay. I need Utah 1st Half on the ML +160

300 to win 1336

Do i hedge or not?

If i let it ride i get nothing.

If i hedge and bet denver 1st half-ML -180 im guaranted of winning something. I have 453 left in account so was thinking of putting it all on Utah-ML 1st half

That way i will end up with either 703 if Denver wins 1st half or 1638 if Utah wins 1st half

 

[ageecee]

should say if i let it ride and Utah doesnt hit i get nothing

 

[spartan]

I would hedge for sure why not walk away with something. I was going to play nuggets first half think it's a good play.

Good luck whatever you do

 

[ageecee]

Just hedged 462 to win 257 on Denver-ML 1st half

 

[picasso]

I see this type of question often. My usual response is, why originally include the last game in the parlay if you plan to bet the other way when it's the sole game left?

Often I see responses saying to hedge in order to guarantee a profit. Well, what's really happening is, you're sacrificing the value you've accumulated to this point. Essentially, you're now betting both sides of the last game with the book getting the vig. The money now locked up is negated by the value you gave back.

The only time I might 'hedge' in this situation is if unforeseen circumstances arose (late injury, bad football weather, etc), i.e., news that affects the value I thought I had when I originally made the bet.

 

[mjalam]

theres no value in a loser, hedge and guarantee yourself a profit

 

[picasso]

theres no value in a loser, hedge and guarantee yourself a profit

I presume you didn't understand my post. Sports betting is all about value and the long term. Regardless of what happens in this one particular instance, play this scenario out thousands of times. Essentially, you're betting both sides of a game, laying -180 and getting +160. Think about how much this costs you in the long run...and why books make so much money...

 

[mjalam]

i wasn't responding to your post, i was just stating what i would do

 

[picasso]

i wasn't responding to your post, i was just stating what i would do

"there's no value in a loser" when I'm the only person mentioning value... But ok...I'll leave it at that.

Hedging is a very common subject in sports betting forums. I hope people think about this in the big picture. Let's not help the books any more -- they already have a nice edge. Unless one thinks of betting as a form of entertainment with a price tag (which has some validity), everything comes down to value and the long term. There have been a number of good threads about this subject at another site. I'm not allowed to mention other sites, but I hope some here have seen these threads.

 

[yyz]

I often shake my head over these threads, too.

If your plan was to "hedge" once you got to the last game, why play it?:shrug:

Now, if you had a shot at a decent middle, that would be another story.

 

[jmizeus]

heres a story of a hedge. rememebr though, on the last game i could not hedge because another game was in progress.

about 2 yrs ago i had a 8 team parlay going. 50 to win 12,000

yes 12,000 on a 50.00 parlay.

anyways, my last game was an espn game between minn/tex but had the redsox on an over that was still going on because they were playing on the west coast. i won all my plays except for the texas game the last game.

but if texas was my last play to win the 12,000 yes indeed i would have hedged. and hedged a big amount and why not. if its a small amount, no i would never.

a year ago i placed an open 2 team parlay, 500 to win 1300

i won my 1st half. so i did hedge my other bet. i believe the play was for 700. well i lost my parlay but still came out ahead 200

anytime u place a parlay that pays well, u must always hedge. always better to win something than nothing.

on the 50 to win 12000 sure i would have only lost 50.00 . but if i even hedged 3-4000 on that game im a big winner no matter what

 

[gsp]

The problem with fh bets in a par is that you don't have the chance to middle. It boils down to this in my opinion. With a three teamer there's not enough margin to protect the play unless you have a great spot to middle. In this case you are guarentee a profit while still giving yourself a chance to win even more. The only other reason to protect the play would be if you had had a bad day and this would give you a winner. I am a firm believer in good and bad days. If you can come out of a bad day with a guarenteed winner take it. I also get very cautious if I lose my first couple of plays. By the way, the book I use for three teamers (one of Jack's sponsors) give 7 to 1 on three teamers. That gives you a free two units to protect with.

 

[picasso]

I'm glad someone (yyz) sees the light.

jmizeus, you're using 2 examples to validate hedging. Two more examples could easily have cost someone a bigger payout. Sports betting should be viewed in the long run. This hedge bet is in reality an independent bet -- even if it is 'only' 3000 or whatever the case may be. You're effectively reducing the parlay by one event and betting both sides (without a scalp) of the last event. In the long run, you are losing value. Surely, you want to maximize your value in the long run, right?

As I asked earlier (and yyz reiterated), why include the last game in the parlay if you plan to hedge it when the parlay is still alive? I've yet to see anyone who is pro-hedging provide an answer to this question.

 

[jmizeus]

so ur telling me. that if the texas game was my last bet, to not hedge? ru nuts? not bashing u, but comeon, we are in this all for the long haul. see if the texas game was ,my last bet, i know big deal i lose 50.00, but in the long run im a winner if i hedge.??? i dont get ur point. over the years i wil make more money by parlaying than u anyday. thats a fact. if u decide never to hedge a parlay, u will lose in the long run

 

[picasso]

The problem with fh bets in a par is that you don't have the chance to middle. It boils down to this in my opinion. With a three teamer there's not enough margin to protect the play unless you have a great spot to middle. In this case you are guarentee a profit while still giving yourself a chance to win even more.

Not sure if I completely followed this, so please correct me if I'm wrong. Assuming the third leg of a 3-team parlay is a full-game event, are you suggesting waiting until halftime to hedge?

 

[jmizeus]

ageecee laid 300 to win 1336

if it were me although he said he had so much to hedge with, i would have hedged 700. this way im either up 400 or im up 600 plus? everyone is different.

 

[picasso]

so ur telling me. that if the texas game was my last bet, to not hedge? ru nuts? not bashing u, but comeon, we are in this all for the long haul. see if the texas game was ,my last bet, i know big deal i lose 50.00, but in the long run im a winner if i hedge.??? i dont get ur point. over the years i wil make more money by parlaying than u anyday. thats a fact. if u decide never to hedge a parlay, u will lose in the long run

Of course I would have let it ride. Otherwise, why would I have included it in the first place? You keep ignoring this part. Why is this so hard to understand? Why include the last event in a parlay if you plan to negate it, thus giving the book more vig?

Your last comment regarding hedging/parlaying/long run is flat-out mathematical nonsense. I can't address this anymore than what I've already said.

 

[jmizeus]

picasso, i fully understand what ur saying. but answer this

my 50 to win 12000

ru telling me if u had the chance to get back say 3-4000 or 8000

or

win 12000 or nothing?

u would take the chance on getting nothing?

if so like i said, everyone is different, as for me id rather be 3000-4000 richer

 

[picasso]

ageecee laid 300 to win 1336

if it were me although he said he had so much to hedge with, i would have hedged 700. this way im either up 400 or im up 600 plus? everyone is different.

Effectively, what ageecee did was win event A. He then let his return (initial bet + winnings) ride on both sides of event B at -180 and +160, thus giving the house some free vig.

 

[picasso]

picasso, i fully understand what ur saying. but answer this

my 50 to win 12000

ru telling me if u had the chance to get back say 3-4000 or 8000

or

win 12000 or nothing?

u would take the chance on getting nothing?

if so like i said, everyone is different, as for me id rather be 3000-4000 richer

Yes, I'm being honest here. The dollar amounts are units. The actual amounts mean different things to different people, so it's best to address them as units. My point is, that if this scenario is repeated thousands of time (i.e, a big enough sample size), I expect to make more (mathematically) by letting every parlay ride.