Washington -1.5......Washington comes into the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the nation, only losing twice in the past month or so (@NC St and vs Stanford in the Pac Ten title game). UAB is a decent squad, but in my opinion has benefitted from the parody in Conference-USA this year. Solid all around team, but does not have the firepower to match a Huskie squad that is firing on all cylinders.
Key Wins for Washington: vs Stanford, Arizona (3x)
Bad Losses: UCLA (twice), USC, Houston and Wyoming (Before Christmas)
Key Wins for UAB: vs Cincy
Bad Losses: @Tulane, vs Marshall.
I really feel that Washington is playing too well right now for UAB to contend with. UAB has been pretty tough on their homecourt down the stretch but has stuggled on the road (that loss at Tulane and a 2 point win at S. Florida) while Washington has been playing well in all gyms over the past month. Won't be shocked if UAB stays close for a while but I think the Huskies pull away down the stretch.
Alabama -2.5....I don't think schedules can be any more opposite than Alabama's and Southern Illinois. Even without knowing that Alambama's SOS is #2 and Southern Illinois' SOS is #146, just running once down both of their seasons says enough. I can honestly say that there is not one win on the S Ill schedule that makes me say wow. A couple of nice wins, but nothing that I wouldn't expect a #9 seed to take care of either. Alabama's resume paints the total opposite picture, as I don't see one loss on the list that is embarrassing. Worse loss in my opinion is @ Mississippi, but is there a ton of shame of losing a SEC road game? For a 12 loss team Bama doesn't have much to hang their heads over.
Key Wins for Alabama: Miss St.
Bad Losses: @ Mississippi (on the fence about this one, but will be fair and say that they should have won this game)
Key Wins for Southern Illinois: None
Bad Losses: SW Missouri St
Maybe I'm being a little harsh on Southern Illinois, and I will admit that you can't beat teams you don't play, so I shouldn't totally slam them for having no big wins. But I really think this team is not a solid 9 seed. Might look at them differently if they were in an 11 v 6 game and catching a bunch of points, but think they are outclassed here.
Louisville -1.5.....Kind of a potential play, because think team reaching the Elite Eight would not shock me. If this team stops talking about doing something and plays up to their potential, they can do some big damage as a double digit seed this year (I said in another thread they might be the best ten seed that I remember in a while). My gut says that they talent on this team plus Petino's tournament experience is a very dangerous combination. As for Xavier, I expect a letdown. That was a very impressive run through the conference tourny, and I suspect it took a lot out of their tank. Sun Tzu had a great stat about teams that run off 4 straight to win their conference championships losing first round in the Big Dance, which I wish I remember right now. If I think of it later I'll bump it up, but the number was unbelievable.
Key Wins for Louisville: Cincy early (Did lose two tight ones to the Bearcats since)
Bad Losses: There are a bunch, but the 71-46 loss @TCU takes the cake.
Key Wins for Xavier: St Joes, vs Cincy
Bad Losses: v Dusquene
Playing Louisville's upside vs the Xavier letdown factor. In what I expect to be a close game I'll take Petino's experience to get Louisville over the top.
Seton Hall +3....Seton's average margin of loss this year is 7, and would only be 5 without that 22 point loss at UCONN. I like this teams knack to stick around in games. Arizona has been inconsistent this year, and a big part of this play is confidence in the Big East over the Pac Ten this season. Feel that Seton Hall is more battle tested this season, and if Arizona listens to all of the hype about them potentially beating Duke they will find themselves going home after round one this year.
Seton Hall key wins: @ Providence, vs Pitt
Bad Losses: @ West Virginia
Arizona key wins: Texas, ( and will give some credit for that near win At Stanford)
Bad Losses: @ USC, @ Oregon State
In my opinion a Seton Hall team with a bit of a chip on their shoulder still about last years' snub proves that they belong.
Providence -7.5.....The Friars come in limping, but I love their upside. Showed flashes of being a very good team this year, and played a pretty tough schedule. I like how they matchup with Pacific, and if Gomes is on his game he should be able to pound his way all over the paint. Pacific has only two wins this whole year vs the Top 140 teams in the nation (Utah St and Nevada), so the 15 game winning streak isn't as impressive as it sounds on glance. In their conference championship looked lethargic down the stretch and I question how hungry this team will be to even make a run at Providence.
Key Wins for Providence: @ UCONN
Bad Losses: @ Rhode Island (12/6), @ Va Tech
Key Wins for Pacific: Utah St, Nevada
Bad Losses: Canisius, Santa Clara
I don't think that Pacific has played a team with the talent of Providence let alone beat anyone close to it.
Utah +1.5.....Really a gut play, like their tournament experience. Dismantled Oregon in round one last year and don't see why they can't do the same to Boston College. I'll take the team that's been there before and has a lot of very good pure shooters.
Best Bet: Washington
Plays are ranked in order of how much I like them.
Hope this helps - best of luck to all in round one.
---Chris
Key Wins for Washington: vs Stanford, Arizona (3x)
Bad Losses: UCLA (twice), USC, Houston and Wyoming (Before Christmas)
Key Wins for UAB: vs Cincy
Bad Losses: @Tulane, vs Marshall.
I really feel that Washington is playing too well right now for UAB to contend with. UAB has been pretty tough on their homecourt down the stretch but has stuggled on the road (that loss at Tulane and a 2 point win at S. Florida) while Washington has been playing well in all gyms over the past month. Won't be shocked if UAB stays close for a while but I think the Huskies pull away down the stretch.
Alabama -2.5....I don't think schedules can be any more opposite than Alabama's and Southern Illinois. Even without knowing that Alambama's SOS is #2 and Southern Illinois' SOS is #146, just running once down both of their seasons says enough. I can honestly say that there is not one win on the S Ill schedule that makes me say wow. A couple of nice wins, but nothing that I wouldn't expect a #9 seed to take care of either. Alabama's resume paints the total opposite picture, as I don't see one loss on the list that is embarrassing. Worse loss in my opinion is @ Mississippi, but is there a ton of shame of losing a SEC road game? For a 12 loss team Bama doesn't have much to hang their heads over.
Key Wins for Alabama: Miss St.
Bad Losses: @ Mississippi (on the fence about this one, but will be fair and say that they should have won this game)
Key Wins for Southern Illinois: None
Bad Losses: SW Missouri St
Maybe I'm being a little harsh on Southern Illinois, and I will admit that you can't beat teams you don't play, so I shouldn't totally slam them for having no big wins. But I really think this team is not a solid 9 seed. Might look at them differently if they were in an 11 v 6 game and catching a bunch of points, but think they are outclassed here.
Louisville -1.5.....Kind of a potential play, because think team reaching the Elite Eight would not shock me. If this team stops talking about doing something and plays up to their potential, they can do some big damage as a double digit seed this year (I said in another thread they might be the best ten seed that I remember in a while). My gut says that they talent on this team plus Petino's tournament experience is a very dangerous combination. As for Xavier, I expect a letdown. That was a very impressive run through the conference tourny, and I suspect it took a lot out of their tank. Sun Tzu had a great stat about teams that run off 4 straight to win their conference championships losing first round in the Big Dance, which I wish I remember right now. If I think of it later I'll bump it up, but the number was unbelievable.
Key Wins for Louisville: Cincy early (Did lose two tight ones to the Bearcats since)
Bad Losses: There are a bunch, but the 71-46 loss @TCU takes the cake.
Key Wins for Xavier: St Joes, vs Cincy
Bad Losses: v Dusquene
Playing Louisville's upside vs the Xavier letdown factor. In what I expect to be a close game I'll take Petino's experience to get Louisville over the top.
Seton Hall +3....Seton's average margin of loss this year is 7, and would only be 5 without that 22 point loss at UCONN. I like this teams knack to stick around in games. Arizona has been inconsistent this year, and a big part of this play is confidence in the Big East over the Pac Ten this season. Feel that Seton Hall is more battle tested this season, and if Arizona listens to all of the hype about them potentially beating Duke they will find themselves going home after round one this year.
Seton Hall key wins: @ Providence, vs Pitt
Bad Losses: @ West Virginia
Arizona key wins: Texas, ( and will give some credit for that near win At Stanford)
Bad Losses: @ USC, @ Oregon State
In my opinion a Seton Hall team with a bit of a chip on their shoulder still about last years' snub proves that they belong.
Providence -7.5.....The Friars come in limping, but I love their upside. Showed flashes of being a very good team this year, and played a pretty tough schedule. I like how they matchup with Pacific, and if Gomes is on his game he should be able to pound his way all over the paint. Pacific has only two wins this whole year vs the Top 140 teams in the nation (Utah St and Nevada), so the 15 game winning streak isn't as impressive as it sounds on glance. In their conference championship looked lethargic down the stretch and I question how hungry this team will be to even make a run at Providence.
Key Wins for Providence: @ UCONN
Bad Losses: @ Rhode Island (12/6), @ Va Tech
Key Wins for Pacific: Utah St, Nevada
Bad Losses: Canisius, Santa Clara
I don't think that Pacific has played a team with the talent of Providence let alone beat anyone close to it.
Utah +1.5.....Really a gut play, like their tournament experience. Dismantled Oregon in round one last year and don't see why they can't do the same to Boston College. I'll take the team that's been there before and has a lot of very good pure shooters.
Best Bet: Washington
Plays are ranked in order of how much I like them.
Hope this helps - best of luck to all in round one.
---Chris
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