AntiConsensus 2004

[BobbyBlueChip]

This is the time of the year that I do well by going straight anti-consenus (also works in the NCAA bowls) Taken from another site, here is the consensus as of 7:45 CST

Date Rot Away Picks Pct Line Home Picks Pct
3/18/04 513 Vermont 111 30.75% +20.5 Connecticut 250 69.25%
3/18/04 509 Liberty 120 31.41% +24 St Josephs Pa 262 68.59%
3/18/04 527 Byu 142 33.10% +3 Syracuse 287 66.90% Detail
3/18/04 535 Nevada 134 33.75% +3 Michigan St 263 66.25%
3/18/04 523 Air Force 145 35.02% +8.5 North Car 269 64.98%
3/18/04 529 UTEP 140 36.36% +7.5 Maryland 245 63.64%
3/18/04 533 UTSA 128 40.25% +25 Stanford 190 59.75%
3/18/04 507 UNCC 180 41.19% +2 Texas Tech 257 58.81%
3/18/04 511 Dayton 173 42.82% +2.5 Depaul 231 57.18%
3/18/04 521 VCU 152 43.06% +13 Wake Forest 201 56.94%
3/18/04 531 Southern Ill 177 44.81% +2.5 Alabama 218 55.19%
3/18/04 537 Valparaiso 170 46.96% +18 Gonzaga 192 53.04%
3/18/04 525 Princeton 174 47.15% +12 Texas 195 52.85% Detail
3/18/04 519 Manhattan 240 57.55% +5.5 Florida 177 42.45%
3/18/04 517 Alabama St 193 58.66% +33.5 Duke 136 41.34%
3/18/04 515 Arizona 263 63.99% -3 Seton Hall 148 36.01% Detail

System calls for fading any team backed by 70+%. Last two years, system went 17-9 and has made a profit for the two years before that (Didn't keep the records.) However, NOBODY fits the system today. Nada. Zip. Zilch.But as this is a time of the year that you don't want to be on the side of the publc, I thought this would be helpful for today and hopefully, it will produce some plays later in the tourney. Good Luck to all

 

[wareagle]

I hate to see Joe pub all over Zona

 

[spuds]

are these % updated during the day? would have to agree with ya good luck

 

[Blackman]

UCONN doesn't tip until 7:10 est --- they could easily hit the 70% by gametime in my opinion.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

I usually pick the night before gametime and don't update it. There's not really a science to it. If you wait until gametime the line changes really mess with the consensus as the site that this comes from allows you to re-bet w/ a line change.

 

[gman2]

wareagle:

i know what you mean. i look at it like this: if i go down with arizona, ill take my loss knowing that i went down with one of the three most talented teams in the entire tournament. so if its public its public.

bobby:

good stuff man. by the way, what did percentage did this approach hit in the college bowls

 

[gardenweasel]

bbc

bbc

you know i love this and watch for it every year....but,i usually disregard the first round and just play what i consider solid dogs....then watch the anti-consensus from the second round on....probably should be sitting on my hands,as i haven`t fooled with the regular season at all...

still,glad you`re still keepin` the faith...looking forward to the second round skinny....g.l.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Date Rot Away Picks Pct Line Home Picks Pct
3/19/04 845 CFU 59 22.52% +14 Pittsburgh 203 77.48%
3/19/04 833 Monmouth 71 25.45% +19 Miss St 208 74.55%
3/19/04 849 EWU 88 28.66% +16 Oklahoma St 219 71.34%
3/19/04 841 NIU 93 31.42% +12 Georgia Tech 203 68.58%
3/19/04 837 UL Laf 100 32.47% +8 No Carolina St 208 67.53%
3/19/04 827 Murray St 114 34.97% +9.5 Illinois 212 65.03%
3/19/04 839 Utah 129 36.86% +2 Boston College 221 63.14%
3/19/04 823 UAB125 36.87% +1.5 Washington 214 63.13%
3/19/04 851 Pacific 115 38.46% +7.5 Providence 184 61.54%
3/19/04 825 Florida A&m 26 43.33% +28.5 Kentucky 34 56.67%
3/19/04 853 Illinois Chi 146 44.65% +8.5 Kansas 181 55.35%
3/19/04 831 Louisville 173 46.01% -1 Xavier 203 53.99%
3/19/04 847 S Carolina 166 50.30% +2 Memphis 164 49.70%
3/19/04 843 Richmond 158 50.48% +8.5 Wisconsin 155 49.52%
3/19/04 829 ETSU 168 51.22% +9 Cincinnati 160 48.78%
3/19/04 835 WMU 312 61.18% -1.5 Vanderbilt 198 38.82%

Play on
CFU +14
NIU +14
EWU +14

Gman. 16-11 in the Bowls last two years. Great record year before that but I didn't keep track. I just had too many New Year's eves with nothing in my betting account to not realize I was doing something wrong.

gw, first round is where this system traditionally does best, but solid dogs and anti-consensus will result in the same plays. Good Luck

 

[JCoverS]

Are you leaving out Monmouth for any specific reason or was this an oversight?

-JC

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Too much Constentino wine:drinky: :drinky:

CFU +14
Monmouth +19
EWU +16

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

System Record 1-2

Date Rot Away Picks Pct Line Home Picks Pct
3/20/04 729 Nevada 30 27.03% +7.5 Gonzaga 81 72.97%
3/20/04 727 Alabama 39 34.82% +7.5 Stanford 73 65.18%
3/20/04 721 Seton Hall 38 35.51% +10.5 Duke 69 64.49%
3/20/04 717 Depaul 39 37.86% +10 Connecticut 64 62.14%
3/20/04 723 Syracuse 52 45.22% +2.5 Maryland 63 54.78%
3/20/04 731 Wisc Milwaukee 43 47.25% +5.5 Boise St 48 52.75%
3/20/04 725 North Carolina 63 51.64% -1 Texas 59 48.36%
3/20/04 733 Virginia 49 53.26% +4 Villanova 43 46.74% Detail
3/20/04 715 Texas Tech 71 56.80% +6.5 St Josephs 54 43.20%
3/20/04 719 Manhattan 79 65.83% +7 Wake Forest 41 34.17%

Play on
Nevada +7.5

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

System Record 2-2

Date Rot Away Picks Pct Line Home Picks Pct
3/21/04 623 Vanderbilt 42 23.60% +3.5 NC St 136 76.40%
3/21/04 631 Memphis 45 26.32% +6.5 Oklahoma St 126 73.68%
3/21/04 629 Wisconsin 66 33.50% PK Pittsburgh 131 66.50%
3/21/04 625 Xavier 63 35.00% +4.5 Mississippi St 117 65.00%
3/21/04 621 UAB 69 38.55% +10 Kentucky 110 61.45%
3/21/04 627 Boston Coll 80 47.06% +6 Georgia Tech 90 52.94%
3/21/04 633 Pacific 88 51.16% +10.5 Kansas 84 48.84%
3/21/04 619 Illinois 113 60.75% +1 Cincinnati 73 39.25%

Play on:
Memphis +6.5
Vanderbilt +3.5

 

[KsYaS]

Good luck BBC like both!!!

are you ready for Baseball, who you White Sox are doing??

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

System Record 3-3

Date Rot Away Picks Pct Line Home Picks Pct
3/25/04 511 Alabama 142 33.49% +2 Syracuse 282 66.51%
3/25/04 509 Pitt 132 37.71% +2.5 Oklahoma St 218 62.29%
3/25/04 513 Vanderbilt 164 42.93% +9 Connecticut 218 57.07%
3/25/04 507 Wake Forest 218 51.17% +2.5 St Joes 208 48.83%

No plays for tomorrow.

Excited for baseball season, KsYaS, lot's of money to be made!!

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

3/26/04 827 Nevada 179 38.17% +4 Georgia Tech 290 61.83%
3/26/04 829 Ala Birm180 41.96% +4.5 Kansas 249 58.04%
3/26/04 825 Xavier 212 44.73% +3 Texas 262 55.27%
3/26/04 823 Illinois 226 48.92% +7 Duke 236 51.08%

No picks again. For informational purposes only

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Date Rot Away Picks Pct Line Home Picks Pct
3/27/04 717 Alabama 71 58.20% +9 Connecticut 51 41.80%
3/27/04 715 Okla St 87 70.16% -2.5 St Josephs Pa 37 29.84%

St. Joseph's +2.5

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

System Record 4-3

Date Rot Away Picks Pct Line Home Picks Pct
3/28/04 617 Xavier 76 46.06% +7.5 Duke 89 53.94%
3/28/04 619 Kansas 85 50.60% -5 Georgia Tech 83 49.40%

No picks for Sunday

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Date Rot Away Picks Pct Line Home Picks Pct
4/3/04 811 G Tech 219 46.70% +4.5 Oklahoma St 250 53.30%
4/3/04 813 Connecticut 283 59.58% -2.5 Duke 192 40.42%

No picks for the Semi's. For information only

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Date Rot Away Picks Pct Line Home Picks Pct
4/5/04 601 G Tech 90 44.12% +5.5 Connecticut 114 55.88%


No pick for the final. Thought UCONN would be backed heavier.

Good Luck