ESPN insider simulation

[wareagle]

has anyone seen this. On the cuse/byu it has byu winning the game 80% of the time

still looking at others...

 

[wareagle]

Game Results
Nevada (+2 pts) at Michigan State
Over/Under: 140

Spread: Nevada covered:80%
Michigan State covered:
20%
Over/Under: Over:
Under: 100%
0%
Win Pct: Nevada:80%
Michigan State:
20%
Note: Since 1985, the 7 seed has a 45-31 (59.2%) record in first round matchups.
Games Within 5 pts: 60%
Games Within 10 pts: 100%

 

[wareagle]

Air Force (+8 pts) at North Carolina
Over/Under: 129?

Spread: Air Force covered:0%
North Carolina covered:
100%
Over/Under: Over:
Under: 60%
40%
Win Pct: Air Force:0%
North Carolina:
100%
Note: Since 1985, the 6 seed has a 52-24 (68.4%) record in first round matchups.

 

[wareagle]

UTEP (+6? pts) at Maryland
Over/Under: 150

Spread: UTEP covered:80%
Maryland covered:
20%
Over/Under: Over:
Under: 80%
20%
Win Pct: UTEP:60%
Maryland:
40%
Note: Since 1985, the 4 seed has a 60-16 (78.9%) record in first round matchups.
Games Within 5 pts: 20%
Games Within 10 pts: 80%

 

[wareagle]

let me know if there are any particular games you guys want to see done

 

[Blackman]

Why I am not suprised that there is no chance of UNC getting upset according to ESPN?


Any clue what goes into these numbers?

 

[wareagle]

Simulator FAQs

Results are based on averages over 15 simulated games.

Each of the 15 games is simulated with a degree of randomness built in.

Results are based on the real life statistics of the players involved.

2003-04 statistics are used in the simulation.

Daily Line results and team win percent represent a percentage of the 15 games simulated.

 

[Blackman]

Thanks for the answer Wareagle.....personally seeing someone say that over the test example Air Force has a 0% probability of covering is a joke. Vegas doesn't set a line that has 0 chance of winning - just makes no sense.

I mean 0% means nothing could happen for Air Force to cover this line - UNC's bus could get into an accident on the way to the arena and Air Force wouldn't cover......not trying to be a smart ass but putting 0% out there is just stupid on ESPN's part.

 

[oldreader]

Do you have time to post all of today's games?

Thanks

 

[wareagle]

Man, it is not saying PROBability, it is saying the % of times they won or covered after 15 simulations. It just so happens to be 0%... This is just food for thought and i think quit interesting

 

[wareagle]

Reader, i am sorry i can't do all the games. But will do a few more. Which one do you have in mind?

 

[wareagle]

(14) Princeton Tigers 64
(3) Texas Longhorns 74
Game Results
Princeton (+11? pts) at Texas
Over/Under: 119

Spread: Princeton covered:60%
Texas covered:
40%
Over/Under: Over:
Under: 100%
0%
Win Pct: Princeton:0%
Texas:
100%
Note: Since 1985, the 3 seed has a 63-13 (82.9%) record in first round matchups.
Games Within 5 pts: 0%
Games Within 10 pts: 60%

 

[oldreader]

Would really like to see Florida and St Joe

Thanks

 

[wareagle]

(13) VA Commonwealth Rams 69
(4) Wake Forest Demon Deacons 90
Game Results
VA Commonwealth (+13 pts) at Wake Forest
Over/Under: 148?

Spread: VA Commonwealth covered:20%
Wake Forest covered:
80%
Over/Under: Over:80%
Under:
20%
Win Pct: VA Commonwealth:0%
Wake Forest:
100%
Note: Since 1985, the 4 seed has a 60-16 (78.9%) record in first round matchups.
Games Within 5 pts: 0%
Games Within 10 pts: 20%

 

[Blackman]

So are you saying that if you simulate Air Force vs UNC again you could theoretically get the complete opposite results - Air Force 100% and UNC 0%. If that's the case, then I don't see how this is worth a lick of salt.

 

[wareagle]

(12) Manhattan Jaspers 74
(5) Florida Gators 80
Game Results
Manhattan (+5 pts) at Florida
Over/Under: 145

Spread: Manhattan covered:20%
Florida covered:
60%
Over/Under: Over:80%
Under:
20%
Win Pct: Manhattan:20%
Florida:
80%
Note: Since 1985, the 5 seed has a 52-24 (68.4%) record in first round matchups.
Games Within 5 pts: 20%
Games Within 10 pts: 80%

 

[wareagle]

I don't know Blackman. I just know that the simulation espn did was 15 times and air force did not win or cover in those 15 games. I know that this is far from possible if they played each other 15 times, i am just trying to help with other angles and inputs rather than some guys around here that have "inside info"

 

[wareagle]

(16) Liberty Flames 65
(1) Saint Joseph's Hawks 87
Game Results
Liberty (+24 pts) at Saint Joseph's
Over/Under: 136?

Spread: Liberty covered:60%
Saint Joseph's covered:
40%
Over/Under: Over:100%
Under:
0%
Win Pct: Liberty:0%
Saint Joseph's:
100%
Note: Since 1985, the 1 seed has a 76-0 (100%) record in first round matchups.
Games Within 5 pts: 0%
Games Within 10 pts: 20%

 

[oldreader]

Thanks Much~

 

[wareagle]

I accidently cut the scores from the first three games here they are:

UNC 83-60
UTEP 79-75
Nevada 75-72

lets see how accurate or inaccurate this bugger is today!