Thursday Winners

[THE KOD]

Here are the lines posted on boards

Wake Forest +2.5
St Joseph's ..-2.5

Pittsburgh +1.5
OK St.........-1.5

Alabama ...+1.5
Syracuse....-1.5

Vanderbilt... +9
Conn............-9
..............................................................................
I just looked at these lines and the thing that strikes me is that we are going to have to pick the team that will win the game. The points will probably not enter into it except for Vandy game.
So in 3 of 4 games Thursday, we either pick the team that will win or we lose the wager. These may all go down to the wire.

My gut instinct is to take all the dogs and be done with it.
Thats too much like coinflipping in my view.

These will all be good games to watch.
I prefer to win rather than watch a good game though.

Alot of work to do here.

KOD

 

[Cohanick]

Good luck with your plays on Thursday. Like half of them so far.

GL

 

[THE KOD]

Good luck with your plays on Thursday. Like half of them so far.
GL

......................................................
Cohanick

LOL

I am just getting started. Do you know who your playing yet ?
wow

which half ?

KOD

 

[THE KOD]

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs St Joseph's Hawks

Nothing jumps out at me in looking at the YTD stats but I did make the following notes. Everythng is even but

Wake PPG.......... 83.8
ST Joes PPG .......77.8

Wake Rebounding .....37.5
St Joes Rebounding ....32.9

Wake Turnovers........15.0
St Joes ......................11.7

Everything else is close in stats.

Here is something I think is important. St Joes has more seniors on their squad. Wake Forest is loaded with talent but I see Freshman/ So/ Jrs. Senior leadership in these games leading up to the final 8 cannot be discounted.

Note of Interest - Wake Forest has one of the nation's best backcourts (Gray and Paul) as well as a great X-and-O man in Prosser. An aside to this is Wake has to play smash mouth inside to win. If the game goes to the perimeter Wake Forest can struggle.

 

[Cohanick]

So far im going to go with Alabama (is it biased that i went to college there) and Vanderbilt. Vandy is a good team and i will gladly take the points in this matchup. On the flipside, i think Ok State wins against Pitt although im still wondering if Pitts D will give Ok State fits. Keep crunching those numbers!!!

take care

GL

 

[Wilson]

I believe you are right about just picking the winner..EXCEPT with UCONN/Vandy...no way Vandy beats UCONN...but, they may cover the big number.

 

[Howie's Hot]

I'm with ya scott...i think it's gonna be a dog day evening..except maybe for uconn...don't forget to weigh in schedule strength...i think it shows up in this game as St. Joe's bows out...

How

 

[THE KOD]

Howie

Yeh I havnt looked at schedule strength yet. I will look it over and add my opinion to the post.

thanks

KOD

 

[THE KOD]

Pittsburgh Panthers vs Oklahoma State Cowboys

YTD stats . I made the following notes. Everythng is even but

OK ST PPG.......... 79.2
Pitt PPG .............69.2

OK ST Steals.......... 8.0
Pitt Steals .............5.9

OK ST 3 Point %..... .390
Pitt # Point %........ .313

Everything else is close in stats.
..........................................................................................
"Prior to the Dance, showing off their tenacious defense and athleticism for three days, Oklahoma State saved its best performance for the Big 12 final and beat Texas for the second time in March to back up its regular season championship"

May be the two most physically tough teams left in the Dance.

Tony Allen | G | Senior
Tony Allen does it all for Eddie Sutton's Cowboys. The senior overpowers opponents with powerful body to score and rebound, but is also a smooth penetrator in the lane. Allen, OSU's steals leader, is a defensive standout who can shut down an opponents' leading scorer.

In losses to BYU and Texas Tech, Tony Allen had poor shooting nights. This concerns me if Pittsburgh can shut him down.

"Ok State has the look of a Sweet 16/Elite 8 participant, but not the Final Four"

"Pittsburgh in trouble when getting hot from the arc. This is about the only way to target and beat Pittsburgh." The question is can Ok St score on offense. They score 10 more ppg already.

Pittsburgh has three losses by a combined seven points; these guys don't like to lose. Pitt is tenacious there is no doubt.

 

[THE KOD]

I will not accept anything but 4-0 in the games this coming
Thursday. Its got to be the hat trick or nothing.

This is the time of year when the past work is done and we are not looking at 30 games to wager on.

It makes it easier to focus and should result in cash in pocket.

Unless we do something stupid which I am prone to do occasionally.

I will not be deterred from victory.

That is my story and I am stickin to it.

KOD

 

[THE KOD]

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs St Joseph's Hawks

Strength of Schedule

I only looked at what I thought to be the best wins. I feel I have to use some off games to gauge things better.

Wake Forest quality wins

(24) Memphis .......85-76
.......Indiana ........100-67
**...Richmond.......81-66 .......Common opponent
(18) North Carol...119-114
(19) Maryland ......93-85 ........beat them 2 x regular season
(6) Duke ............90-84
(14) Ga Tech.........80-76

St Joseph's Hawks

(3)..... Gonzaga .............73-66.....Gonzaga went down early
(25) ...Boston College.... 67-57
...........Pacific................. 73-55
...........Richmond ...........71-60
.........at Xavier............. 81-73
.........Rhode Island ......73-59 .... beat them 2x
.........Villanova............ 74-67
.........Dayton............... 81-67

Strength of schedule looks to be in Wake Forest pocket. Their schedule was tough. St Joes came no where near that level of competition. And we are getting + points with Wake Forest !

St Joseph's could probably not beat GT, Duke , or
North Carolina on their best day.

Holy Christmas unless I am missing something this looks like
money in the friggin bank.

KOD

 

[THE KOD]

Pittsburgh Panthers vs Oklahoma State Cowboys

Strength of Schedule

I only looked at what I thought to be the best wins. I feel I have to use some off games to gauge things better.

Pittsburgh Panthers quality wins

Alabama ...................71-62
Florida St ..................63-56
Georgia.................. ..76-55
Notre Dame ..............74-71 Won 2X reg season
(20) Syracuse ...........66-45
(25) Boston College ..68-58 Won 2X
(7) Conneticut ..........75-68 I think Okafor was out
(21)Providence .........88-61
(10) Wisconsin .........59-55

Oklahoma State Cowboys quality wins

(12) Texas ...............72-67
(16] Kansas .............80-60
(12) Texas ...............76-67
(12) Texas ...............65-49
(24) Memphis ..........70-53

I would have to give strength of schedule hands down to Pittsburgh. OK St sure did prove they could beat Texas though.

 

[loophole]

well scott, with tongue in cheek i'll suggest that you have the right idea but for all the wrong reasons. the reason i say that is, during the tourney, traditional handicapping techniques that may have merit during the regular season often don't capture the value in picking teams to play during the ncaa tournament. over the years i've tried forecasting the ncaa with power ratings, strength of schedule, streaking teams - you name it - but with little consistency of result.


what i have found is that there is some predictability worthy of note in playing the success rate of certain seeds against the spread. i have seen the breakdown in various formats and locations, but currently i'll give credit to a poster named derek who presented the numbers in a very digestible form on the forum run by our old madjack friend kcwolf.

since 1998, the numbers break down like this for the sweet 16 round:

higher seeds have prevailed at a cozy 33-15 s/u, but against the spread they fall to 16-29-3, or a paltry 35.6% - a nice enough number to fade in anyone's system. additionally, during that time (not counting this year's tourney) #2 seeds have gone 28-43-2 ats in the tourney overall (39%), while #8 seeds have gone 26-18 (59%). this year, these numbers also support plays on #8 alabama, as well as fades of #2s uconn and ok state.

other good tourney plays - #10s - 29-18-1 (62%); #15s - 15-10 (60%); #12s - 22-15 (59%). other good seeds to fade - #7s - 14-24 (37%); #14s - 10-16 (38%).

while i don't necessarily think six years is enough data to meet a chi square or other test of statistical reliability, they have produced a profit for me in this year's tourney thus far.


after all is said and done, i'll be on all the dogs on thursday too, but it has nothing to do with handicapping, just going with the numbers that seem to work for now until they let me down.


good luck with your plays.

 

[THE KOD]

loophole

Agree with alot of what you posted. Don't agree that you can't
cap the games like you do regular season. I think Howie pointing out strength of schedule is a powerful vehicle to use.

Unfortunately strength of scedule is subject to any one persons interpretation.

I think keeping it simple and for instance when a capper like motley says it feels good has more meaning than any history on seeding.

I havn't made final decisions yet. I am just getting the information together so I can decide.

I feel lucky. The 4-0 is right there for me to take. I intend to cash it.

good luck with your plays also.

KOD

 

[Juu3]

Nice write ups. I like alot of the dogs to, but there is only one game for me!

ALABAMA +2

ATL, put your money here! I know that it is bad to sound to confident and all of that shit but this team is going to turn more heads on Thursday. I grew up with this team and I have watch Wallace, Grizzard, Dudley, Mo Will, and others for the past few years and there hasn't been a better chemistry than this team playing now. Instead of Meade, you have a guy that can shoot the ball in Shelton. Instead of Mo, you have Pettway who isn't looking out for his numbers. Instead of Grizzard you have Winston who I need to say nothing about!

I've given you a few facts and the only thing stopping this team is if they shoot like they did the first ten minutes of the second half against Stanford, THE WHOLE GAME!

Alabama was the best kept secret in the tournament--- goes with em'

 

[THE KOD]

Juu3

Got to repect a Alabama man for standing behind his team.
That don't mean they will win though.

Its kinda like HighRoller coming in here and saying Miami Dolphins or nothing. That might not take me to 4-0.

I do like the Alabama team and what they have done.

I am working on stats now.

Thanks

KOD

 

[THE KOD]

Alabama Tide vs Syracuse Orangemen

Everythng is even averages per game but


Alabama Assist 11.9
Syracuse Assists 15.4

Alabama Blocks 3.1
Syracuse Blocks 6.9

Alabama Rebounds 35.3
Syracuse Rebounds 38.6

Alabama 3 Pointers per game 6.7
Syracuse 3 Pointers per game 4


Everything else is close in stats.
.........................................................................

"Evidence of Alabama's newfound confidence came during a timeout and the Tide trailing the Cardinal by 13 points. Alabama had just missed 16 of its previous 17 shots, but coach Mark Gottfried assured his players they were going to win. Thus inspired, the Tide went out and scored 16 straight points to take a lead, then withstood a furious Stanford rally."

Alabama will not advance if Winston and Shelton are contained.

Syracuse is limited offensively. If they don't play their best defense they will lose this game.

 

[THE KOD]

Alabama Tide vs Syracuse Orangemen

Strength of Schedule

I only looked at what I thought to be the best wins. I feel I have to use some off games to gauge things better.

Alabama Tide quality wins

....Charlotte ...............................Tourney win/
.....Oregon ..................87-86..........at Las Vegas
at .Arkansas ...................................down 22/ OT win
(10) Wisconsin....... 71-56
......Georgia ..................45-42
(9)..Miss St ...............77-73
(23).Souther Illinois 65-64
(1) ..Stanford............ 70-67

Syracuse Orangemen

Rhode Island ...........69-65
Manhatten ...............69-63
(25) Mich St ..............96-83
Notre Dame ..............81-70
Villanova ...................64-59
(7) Conneticut ...........67-56
(21) Maryland ...........72-70

 

[Send it in]

Scott I want some chicken for dinner Thursday! Pick me up on your way to the promise land!!

 

[THE KOD]

Send It

LMAO ! that was a good one.

KOD