Wake Forest/St. Joe's prop play

[Felonious Monk]

Tell me what you guys think of this.

Wake Forest vs St Josephs (Largest Lead Of The Game By Either Team)
Over 15.5 -115
Under 15.5 -115

When I look at this game, I see a close game from tip to buzzer and neither team getting out to a big lead without the other getting right back in it. I can see a 12 point lead at the most but 16 is stretching it. The low spread also indicates a tight game. Thoughts?

And please, no crap about the extra juice.

 

[gman2]

normally i can make a case for just about any line because theres lots of runs in a basketball game and anything can conceivably be covered, even if it looks odd.

but that line is really weird, especially the fact that its -115/-155. i could see if it was over +105/under -145. but to make it -115 both ways is weird. with the line being 2.5, i would think the biggest lead would be 10 or 11. strange line but if its there, dont blame you for grabbing it

 

[Felonious Monk]

thanks gman, gonna put a unit on it.

Here's an even better one IMO.

Pittsburgh vs Oklahoma St (Total 3 Point Field Goals Made By Both Teams) 03/25 at 07:10 pm

Over 7.5 -130
Under 7.5 even

I LOVE that over. Shit, it just jumped to -130...grabbing it now.

 

[gman2]

thanks gman, gonna put a unit on it.

Here's an even better one IMO.

Pittsburgh vs Oklahoma St (Total 3 Point Field Goals Made By Both Teams) 03/25 at 07:10 pm

Over 7.5 -130
Under 7.5 even

I LOVE that over. Shit, it just jumped to -130...grabbing it now.

definitely dont agree there. you better hope oklahoma state makes all 8. because pittsburgh is terrible from 3pt range. barely 30% and nobody on that team is a pure shooter. oklahoma state shoots a good percentage (almost 40%) but they have a very very low figure for 3pt shots attempted.

i dont think the juice is nearly worth it there. neither teams offense revolves around the 3 and you couple that with both teams playing awesome defense.....i cant see it.

like the 1st prop. not the 2nd.

 

[gman2]

just to put it into perspective with the other 'power teams' left in the tournament:

3pters made/ 3pters attempted (season)

texas 218/579
duke 238/641
uconn 222/557
illinois 221/632
kansas 178/533

oklahoma state? 150/385

they shoot em at a high clip, but theyre probably not gonna jack a lot up for you. those attempts figure is really really low

 

[Felonious Monk]

OK I realize that Pitt's 3 pt.% isn't much but they do knock down around 4 a game. And Pokes have 3 legit strokers from long range, while getting around 5 to drop.

I like this play because this is such a marquee matchup and I just have that feeling that both teams will be "showing their stuff." But I certainly agree that Okie St. will have to hit their average to have a chance.

 

[mjalam]

i think its a good bet...lucas is good for at least 3 of those...its not like they're gonna punish pitt on the inside

 

[Felonious Monk]

that's actually another point I was going to make Mj. To me, Pitt's strength is the interior and this may force Pokes into an outside game.

also, Okie State's perimeter D is suspect, giving up an average 38% so maybe Pitt will try to exploit that. :shrug:

 

[gman2]

monk:

i think youre failing to take into account the defenses of both teams.

pitts 3pt defense = 30%
osu 3pt defense = 31%

do you know how stingy that is?

seems like youre dead set on this one. just playing devils advocate because, quite frankly, i cant see it at all.

gl man. hope you hit it.

the good defensive teams take away the 3pt line before anything else.

 

[mjalam]

it can be stingy but not that stingy among top teams..

for instance, in the big east championship..uconn went 7-19.


yes, they hit 7!!! not so stingy



and just to add...since it will be a close game, you always get those cheap 3's near the end

 

[gman2]

it can be stingy but not that stingy among top teams..

for instance, in the big east championship..uconn went 7-19.


yes, they hit 7!!! not so stingy



and just to add...since it will be a close game, you always get those cheap 3's near the end

pitt has hit 2 or less 3s in 6 of L8 gms. and a close game would eliminate "cheap 3s". its the blowouts where the D is passive

 

[Felonious Monk]

I stand corrected on that 38%, I was looking at the Offensive category. Silly me. :com:

You raise valid points gman but I just have that feeling they get just over the mark. I don't know, maybe I need to reconsider. I'll do more research on this.

Thanks for the replies fellas.

 

[Howie's Hot]

that's funny monk...got your post...you know what they say about great minds..

How

 

[Bif "The Hat"]

where...

where...

Did you get those props?

 

[Felonious Monk]

Give me 1 more 3 pointer you sons of bitches!! :hail

bif, from carib

 

[mjalam]

thats weak...you should have hit it...if pitt made one more of those 15 three's you would've been all good...oh well

 

[mjalam]

good call on the st. joe's prop...the lead never swelled to more than 11..just like you predicted...nice