Algarve Open de Portugal Caixa Geral de Depositos

[gethman]

It should be noted that this years tournament is being played at Penina and not the Vale Do Lobo course used recently.
It is a better field than last week, but still has a lot of dead wood. However, as with most events, it does have a number of outsiders with genuine chances, and it should be noted that six of the seven previous winners have started at 50/1 or higher.
Players with solid current form, as well as proven form out on the Algarve should prove profitable enough this week.


Joakim Haeggman, 20/1, SkyBet, 1.5 Pt E/W

Marcel Siem, 40/1, SkyBet, 1 Pt E/W

Jamie Spence, 125/1, Stan James, 0.5 Pt E/W

Sam Walker, 200/1, 0.25 Pt E/W

Also had good cases for Van Phillips (125/1) and Jonathan Lomas (125/1)

 

[gethman]

One early match bet.

Terry Price to beat Jamie Donaldson, 4/5, SportingOdds, 2 Points

Not a lot to like about the price, but plenty to like when you look deeper. The only negative is that Donaldson has finshed in the places here in the past, but his form prior to that event was as good as it has been in his career. He has missed the weekend in each of his last four outings, and withdrew in Madeira last week.
Terry Price very nearly formed part of my outright selections, but his putting stats suggest he may not win. However, his tee to green stats, and the fact he is in solid current form means he should go well this week again.

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1pt):

Raphael Jacquelin to win 18/1 e.w. @ UKBetting
Take out his two events in Australia and the one in Singapore - none of which bear a close resemblance to the conditions on view this week - and Jacquelin's finishes this year read: 5th, 2nd, 4th, 20th and 3rd. That form is not to be sniffed at in this weak field. Having already played on this course in 1998 and 1999 - 12th and 24th - he should have a very good week.

Greg Owen to win 20/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Owen also has course experience, playing in this event from 1998 to 2000, finishing in 6th position in the last year. He has been similarly impressive over the past couple of months, finishing in the top-10 in three of his last four starts. Not a proven closer of events, but he did win the British Masters last year by three shots so there is hope that he will do more than just contend.

Rob Rashell to win 80/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Stan James, Paddy Power and Victor Chandler
There is a similar hope with Rashell, a player who had struggled to move up the professional Tours since 1999 when he had been one of the leading collegiate players in the States. He failed to progress beyond the first stage of the PGA Tour Q-School, but finished in the top-3 in stages 1 & 2 at the European Tour Q-School and secured his card at the final in Spain in November. Since then he has played in two events on the European International Tour, finishing 10th in the Hong Kong Open in December and 2nd in the Madeira Island Open last week. That's rather impressive for a rookie and so is backed this week, particularly as very few of this week's weak field have prior course experience.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1pt):

Jamie Donaldson to beat Nick Dougherty -111 @ Stan James
'Little Nick' has not been the same player since suffering from glandular fever and is opposed here. Donaldson is hardly in the best of form himself, but was 2nd in this event last year and leads Dougherty comfortably h2h over the past year.

Greg Owen to beat James Kingston -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Kingston has now become an established player on the European Tour, but he is still a long way behind Owen in terms of top-10 finishes - which Owen achieved in both of the Middle East events. Owen also has the advantage of course experience and so while this matchup should last the distance, Owen looks the far likelier winner.

Barry Lane to beat Graeme McDowell -111 @ Paddy Power and Ladbrokes
Course advantage is something that Lane has over McDowell, but there is also the issue of form. Whereas Lane has made five of six cuts this year, McDowell has only made three of six, with just two of 18 rounds under 70. No surprise that Lane holds a comfortable 14-5-3 h2h lead over McDowell over the past year.

 

[lal2000]

Gethman - interested by your selection of Sam Walker - and curious as to why most of the books I use do not list him - the best price is Stan James @ 200/1, but many, including Chandler and SkyBet do not even include him on their lists.

 

[gethman]

I dont think he was originally in the starting field, but qualifies thanks to his top five finish in Madeira last week. Most books list others on request, so ring them for your price, but I doubt you will get bigger than 200/1.

 

[gethman]

Looks like Donaldson is a non starter, so no matchups on this tour for me again this week!

 

[lostinamerica]

Stan: The No.1 rank for Rob Rashell in the overall ratings on your site is too hard to ignore for a couple of bucks. Regardless of how various factors are weighted in compiling your rating, I guess I'm really expecting his name to be an exception that proves the rule, that rule being that your soundly constructed ratings so very rarely spit out aberrations like including Rob in such lofty company. Then again, maybe not noting any exception is where genius lies this week.

***********************************

OUTRIGHTS:

This week it's another course I haven't seen action on before. http://www.portugalvirtual.pt/_golf/algarve/index.html

Trying these:

Paul McGinley(25/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
He looked close and said he was close before Dubai, and I think he was too close to go careening in the other direction. But Owen and Jacquelin seem at least equally compelling.

Peter Lawrie(66/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Much like Jamie Donaldson last year, Lawrie has done nothing but track well all season and keep my interest in spots where I've let him carry my cash. He seems close to thrusting himself into the midst of a serious opportunity, sooner rather than later, much like Jamie Donaldson last year.

Gregory Havret(150/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
I saw very little chance that further digging on this event would reveal someone I would prefer at something in excess of 100/1.

If I have nothing else going for me, it shouldn't hurt that these selections weren't blown away in last week's goofiness.

GL

 

[Stanley]

LIA, therein lies the problem of stats that rely on averages. Despite the ratings' corrections for small number of starts, he has done extremely well in his two European Tour-sanctioned events to date and that means some very impressive 'average' stats and thus a high rating. He's got the worst draw imaginable though - last one out in the 1st round

Adding (1pt):

Soren Hansen to beat Brad Kennedy -110 @ Bet365
In events in Europe and the Middle East, Hansen leads Kennedy 3-0-0 h2h; it is only in the Southern Hemisphere that Kennedy has finished ahead of Hansen. While the Australian did finish 2nd last week, he will surely suffer from a 'what might have been' hangover this week. He missed out on a playoff by one shot, yet signed for an 8 on the last hole of his 3rd round, yet only took 7 shots.
(also available at Ladbrokes)

 

[lal2000]

Outrights

? units ew
M Siem 50/1 @ Sporting Odds
P Broadhurst 100/1 @ Blue Square
R Sterne 150/1 @ Blue Square
J M Lara 125/1 @ Bet365
M A Martin 150/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/5 odds 1st 5)

? unit ew
G Rojas 250/1 @ Sky & Chandlers
I Garrido 200/1 @ SkyBet
J M Carilles 200/1 @ Chandlers

I hate making these selection ? it?s what I leave behind that worries me. Also interested in Riley, Ormsby, Philips & Brier.

Good Luck!

 

[lal2000]

Mixed Doubles - all at Bet Direct - as usual, I always have a good feeling about my doubles selections when I post them - I know one will pay off - I can feel it. This usually lasts until the end of the first days play in most cases, and it has certainly worn off by the second days play in all but the rarest of occasions. But I do persist - I've had enough pay off to make it worth the effort - for now.

Harrington/Jacquelin
Bjorn/Owen
Cink/Haeggman
Mickelson/Owen
Frazer/Levet
Weir/Karlsson
Harrington/Jimenez
Bjorn/Jacquelin
Cink/Owen
Mickelson/Levet
Frazer/Karlsson
Weir/Jimenez
Bjorn/McGinley
Kaye/Lawrie
Waldorf/Havret
Baird/Siem


Good Luck!

 

[smoothie]

Sportinbet voided both Price VS Donaldson and Own Vs Kingston wagers.

Anyone know why?

 

[lal2000]

Note Gethmans post above - Donaldson is a non-starter and I believe the same applies to Kingston.

 

[lostinamerica]

Deleted. Wrong thread.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

SUNDAY:

Canonica(+175) over Colsaerts/Cort for 1* @ Bet365

Raitt(+175) over Park/Russell for 1* @ Bet365

GL

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - Final update: 0-3; -3.00pts

Jacquelin mc
Owen mc
Rashell mc

Well, that was certainly the kiss of death for those three players! Rashell had been going well and had been in the top-20 for most of the 2nd round until he dropped five shots in three shots on his back nine.

Matchups - Final update: 1-1-0; -0.11pts

Donaldson/Dougherty VOID (Donaldson dns)
Owen/Kingston VOID (Kingston dns)
Lane/McDowell LOST by 5
Hansen/Kennedy WON by 5

Small loss on the matchups and thankful for that. Two matches were voided, but could have been much worse. Dougherty finished in the top-25 and Owen missed the cut by a large margin.

European Tour ytd:
Outrights: 2-10; -8.12pts
Matchups: 7-7; -0.86pts

 

[gethman]

Sam Walker made a mockery of his 200/1 odds, but finished just outside the places, and I was made to regret not backing Terry Price. The Donaldson withdrawal made things worse, as he would have had to won the tournament to beat Price in the matchup. Disappointing show from Marcel Siem, and Haeggman.

Euro Tour YTD :

Outrights : 2-10 +48.75 pts

Matchups : 1-0 +0.90 pts

 

[lal2000]

Disappointed that Garrido choked on the last day, but pleased he birdied that last hole to get into the money. Lara was another disappointment.

Now banking on Harrington winning the Bellsouth to give me a decent double!

LT

 

[gethman]

Lal,

Looked everywhere for that 200/1 Garrido on Wednesday, and best I could find was 40/1 on Siem back on Tuesday????

What books do you use?? :shrug:

 

[lal2000]

Picked up both Garrido (Skybet) & Siem (Sporting Odds) on Monday - late afternoon UK time. By same time on Tuesday, Garrido was down to 125/1 and Siem to 40's as you found.

LT