Friday Report - 04/23/04
Season record: 30-32 -4.49 UNITS
All lines effective as of 4/23/04 12:05am PST. Listed pitchers must start.
Five plays for Friday:
SD (EATON) -129 over Ari (Daigle) - 2 UNITS - 7:05pm Pacific
San Diego has scored 29 runs in their last three games at pitcher friendly Pac Bell Park. They now move to hitter friendly Bank One, and should be able to continute their scoring. Arizona is coming off of a 15 inning marathon at Milwaukee in which they used 8 pitchers. They return home with Daigle on the mound, who hasn't been good at all. Granted, one start was at Coors, but it's not like Bank One will provide much relief to him. Daigle most likely won't be effective against the hot Padre offense. Arizona's pen is pretty bad to begin with; throw in the fact that they're a little overworked, and they probably won't provide much relief. Eaton, meanwhile, has looked very sharp. His command, control, and HR rates are all excellent. This year's sample size is still very small, but his progression from Tommy John surgery two years ago is very good. San Diego has a good bullpen, and I give the Padres the edge in every match up here.
OVER 10.5 STL (CARPENTER)/MIL (KINNEY) -112 - 1 UNIT - 5:05pm Pacific
Both starting pitchers have been a little wild. Kinney has followed up a lousy spring with some lousy regular season starts. He got lit up by the Cardinals last year, and I don't expect him to improve against them this year. Moreover, Milwaukee's bullpen was burned up in yesterday's 15 inning marathon, which means we may see more of an ineffective Kinney longer than usual before giving it up to a tired pen. I don't expect much from Carpenter either, as he's still trying to find his groove after being out of baseball for awhile. His skill set is not that good anyway.
STL (CARPENTER) -121 over Mil (Kinney) -121 - 1 UNIT - 5:05pm Pacific
Although I'm not a fan of Carpenter, I think the Cards will be able to hit Kinney and the bullpen enough to give them a win.
LA (PEREZ) -149 over SF (Tomko) - 1 UNIT - 7:10pm Pacific
Perez was nearly flawless in his last game against SF. He went 8 innings, gave up two hits, struck out 10, and walked only 1. He has always put up some pretty good numbers against the Giants, but he had a terrible record against them. Now may be the time when the W/L record will catch up to his numbers. Perez is usually a safe play at Dodger Stadium, as he is prone to giving up the home run when he's not on; his home park will suppress this tendency. Of course, Perez will have an excellent pen backing him up.
NYY (CONTRERAS) -125 over Bos (Lowe) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
The Yankees' three year split against Lowe shows that they've hit him very well, but their W/L record against him doesn't properly reflect that. They continued their hot hitting against him in his last start, and I don't see why that can't continue in this one. Contreras hasn't looked too good this year, but I think it's just a matter of time before his nasty stuff comes shining through. I'm not expecting a gem from Contreras here, but I do think the Yanks' offense will pull this one out.
PLEASE NOTE: All wagers are recommended for a "base" unit. Thus a side for 1 UNIT at -110 should be considered risking 1.10 UNITS to win 1.00 UNITS, while a team at +110 should be considered risking 1.00 UNITS to win 1.10 UNITS.
Good luck.
Season record: 30-32 -4.49 UNITS
All lines effective as of 4/23/04 12:05am PST. Listed pitchers must start.
Five plays for Friday:
SD (EATON) -129 over Ari (Daigle) - 2 UNITS - 7:05pm Pacific
San Diego has scored 29 runs in their last three games at pitcher friendly Pac Bell Park. They now move to hitter friendly Bank One, and should be able to continute their scoring. Arizona is coming off of a 15 inning marathon at Milwaukee in which they used 8 pitchers. They return home with Daigle on the mound, who hasn't been good at all. Granted, one start was at Coors, but it's not like Bank One will provide much relief to him. Daigle most likely won't be effective against the hot Padre offense. Arizona's pen is pretty bad to begin with; throw in the fact that they're a little overworked, and they probably won't provide much relief. Eaton, meanwhile, has looked very sharp. His command, control, and HR rates are all excellent. This year's sample size is still very small, but his progression from Tommy John surgery two years ago is very good. San Diego has a good bullpen, and I give the Padres the edge in every match up here.
OVER 10.5 STL (CARPENTER)/MIL (KINNEY) -112 - 1 UNIT - 5:05pm Pacific
Both starting pitchers have been a little wild. Kinney has followed up a lousy spring with some lousy regular season starts. He got lit up by the Cardinals last year, and I don't expect him to improve against them this year. Moreover, Milwaukee's bullpen was burned up in yesterday's 15 inning marathon, which means we may see more of an ineffective Kinney longer than usual before giving it up to a tired pen. I don't expect much from Carpenter either, as he's still trying to find his groove after being out of baseball for awhile. His skill set is not that good anyway.
STL (CARPENTER) -121 over Mil (Kinney) -121 - 1 UNIT - 5:05pm Pacific
Although I'm not a fan of Carpenter, I think the Cards will be able to hit Kinney and the bullpen enough to give them a win.
LA (PEREZ) -149 over SF (Tomko) - 1 UNIT - 7:10pm Pacific
Perez was nearly flawless in his last game against SF. He went 8 innings, gave up two hits, struck out 10, and walked only 1. He has always put up some pretty good numbers against the Giants, but he had a terrible record against them. Now may be the time when the W/L record will catch up to his numbers. Perez is usually a safe play at Dodger Stadium, as he is prone to giving up the home run when he's not on; his home park will suppress this tendency. Of course, Perez will have an excellent pen backing him up.
NYY (CONTRERAS) -125 over Bos (Lowe) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
The Yankees' three year split against Lowe shows that they've hit him very well, but their W/L record against him doesn't properly reflect that. They continued their hot hitting against him in his last start, and I don't see why that can't continue in this one. Contreras hasn't looked too good this year, but I think it's just a matter of time before his nasty stuff comes shining through. I'm not expecting a gem from Contreras here, but I do think the Yanks' offense will pull this one out.
PLEASE NOTE: All wagers are recommended for a "base" unit. Thus a side for 1 UNIT at -110 should be considered risking 1.10 UNITS to win 1.00 UNITS, while a team at +110 should be considered risking 1.00 UNITS to win 1.10 UNITS.
Good luck.
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