Smarty Jones against the field

[OnaJ]

I know this probably belongs in the Horse Racing Forum but it's more of a general topic. Can anyone tell me why Smarty Jones is such a heavy favorite to win the Belmont?

I'm looking at Pinnacle and seeing he is a -224 favorite to win the Belmont?

The same Smarty Jones that wasn't even going run in the Belmont if he didn't win the Preakness?

Most importantly, this is a speed horse that is now running a mile and a half.

Sure he blew away the field at the Preakness but that was a mile and a 16th. I've seen a lot of good speed horses absolutely die down the stretch at the Belmont

Either I am really dumb or maybe SJ just is expected to have a heavy public backing because America wants to see a Triple Crown winner so bad.

This is a good horse, but does any one really expect this to be a run away? I do not. Does any one think something else? It just seems like America is really pulling for this Triple Crown with a definitely good but I'm not sure about great horse.

 

[Blackman]

Do we know who is even going to face him? I'm not an expert on the ponies by any stretch of the imagination but I'm starting to get the vibe that this is going to be a very small field because people are actually afraid of facing Smarty. Is he price inflated? Sure. Is there any 3 year old that will enter the Belmont with the talent to run with him? I'm not so sure...

Smarty has ran like a great horse in the past two....but I also really think that this years crop of three year olds is pretty weak. Not taking anything away from Smarty but this is a right place at the right time situation.

 

[TossingSalads]

Do not Misunderestimate this horse. Hisstrategery to stalk the pacesetter should suit him well in what shapes up to be a less than stellar belmont field. Stewart Elliot is a very good frontrunning jockey who has rated this horse beautifully. The only horse that had a chance was mulhollands horse, but that was if they skipped the preakness to rest for belmont.
Hope this Helps

 

[bjfinste]

Even more so than Funny Cide last year, Smarty Jones' has really captured the public's eye because he's a good story and not just some run-of-the-mill star horse owned by some gazillionare that no one can relate to. That's a big factor.

Another one is the field. I honestly think he's just that much better than everyone else. This is the sixth time in the last eight years a horse has won the first two legs. Out of those six times, I think Smarty Jones easily has the best chance out of any of them did going into the Belmont. Silver Charm I would've said had the second best shot out of the group.

And those odds might not be all that bad. If you bet him at the track on the day of the race, I seriously doubt you'll get anything better than 2-5, and I'm actually anticipating he'll go off at 1-5 at best just because of the public appeal. I mean, when was the last time a racehorse ended up on the cover of SI? I can't even remember it happening, and myself or my family has subscribed since around 1993.

 

[sharky17]

I think Blackman hit the nail on the head here......This is one weak crop of three year olds in my opinion. I know he is stretching out in distance, but the Belmont actually favours speed horses more times than not, and I don't think this horse was even asked to hit his best stride in the Preakness. I really don't know who is going to step to the plate and give him a run for the money? :shrug: Does he belong in the company of Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, etc. ? I don't know, but I sure think his name will be included on this list......

 

[Penguinfan]

Re: Smarty Jones against the field

I'm looking at Pinnacle and seeing he is a -224 favorite to win the Belmont?

That price is completly based on the premise that he will be 1-5 on the day of the race or even 1-9 based on the publics money race day, nothing more. It does not speak of what kind of horse he is, it has been stated in this thread that this is a weak crop of 3yo's, very true, perhaps the worst in recent memory.

Does he belong in the company of Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, etc. ? I don't know, but I sure think his name will be included on this list

There lies the tragedy in this race, if he does win it will be because of the garbage he is racing against, not because he deserves mentioned with the above company. The publics desire to see a triple crown winner has overtaken the true horseplayers disgust with this situation, though the more I think about it the exposure may be good for the game, nevertheless I hope he does not win simply because he is not the caliber of horse that previous winners were. If not for a horrible ride in the Derby this generation would have it's triple crown winner in Point Given 3 years ago and belive me Smarty Jones is nowhere near the horse Point Given was.

GO FIELD!

 

[sharky17]

If not for a horrible ride in the Derby this generation would have it's triple crown winner in Point Given 3 years ago and belive me Smarty Jones is nowhere near the horse Point Given was.

Oh, you are sooo right......Gary Stevens totally butchered that ride in the Derby. Point Given won the San Felipe, the Santa Anita Derby, and then went on to win the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell and Travers after the Kentucky debotchery before injuring a tendon and being retired. He beat a crop of three year olds that included Macho Uno, AP Valentine, Dollar Bill and Congaree, who is still racing as one of the top older horses in North America. Baffert still claims he was the best he ever trained.

I have one other small problem with Smarty Jones....How can a horse prep for the Triple Crown by tackling the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby? :shrug: Whatever happened to the Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, or even the Louisiana Derby? Again, I just think that illustrates the lack of talent in this year's 3yo pool.

I mean, the horse is obviously extremely talented, and I'm not trying to take anything away from him, but as a horseplayer, I just don't want to include him with the greats of the past? :shrug:

 

[pd1]

[Sure he blew away the field at the Preakness but that was a mile and a 16th. I've seen a lot of good speed horses absolutely die down the stretch at the Belmont



It was 1 mile and 3/16, it does make a big difference. Bet you havn't seen as many horses as I have, if you don' t know the distance of the Preakness. Smarty is not a speed horse, he is a stalker.

 

[Penguinfan]

nevermind

 

[lenniethelock]

if you look at the beyers for these 3 year olds this is a very fast group.he s just making them look bad.and remember pace makes the race,havent looked at the field yet,but if he gets his usual stocking position he shoud win this going away by a huge margin.the mile and a half shouldnt bother him at all.

 

[OnaJ]

Thanks for all thegreat replies. I have not been around this weekend until now and these replies are great. Except for pd1, everyone was really helpful. Sorry for my mistake pd1, I guess I am just human :shrug: I should bow to you for never making a mistake. Why does their always have to be some jerk to throw a jab in when he knows what someone means or is trying to get at? Thanks to the rest for the good thread going, it's good reading.

 

[lay the wood2]

Smarty Jones is a freak.
Mark my words, he will win the third leg of the triple crown. Horses like this only come around every 20 years or so.

Am i saying bet this pony? probably not because the gamblers out there will try their hardest to get this horse to 1-9 by post time. unless you cap the exacta or trifecta, this might just be a $2 win ticket, just to have a winning play on the T. Crown.

Enjoy the race because it will be exciting to watch. hearing durkin call the stretch run will be worth tuning into.

gl
ltw2

 

[shamrock]

anyone know if Cliffs edge will run the Belmont??

Also rock hard 10 finished the Preakness strong, he is a mammoth horse at almost 18 hands, could he stretch out to that distance??

 

[Michelangelo]

I echo lay the wood's sentiments.

I have seen every horse mentioned in the above thread run.

In my opinion there was only one horse mentioned who is in the class with this horse - Secretariat. I was there when he won the Belmont by 31 lengths.

Although I never thought I'd live to see him, I think Smarty Jones will have his name side by side with Big Red when all is done.

Lenniethelock has said that the Beyers for this three year old crop compare favorably with any group of the past. I agree.

Smarty Jones is a monster.

His prep races make perfectly good sense for a horse coming from Pennsylvania. I'm sure his connections were not clear as to how good a horse they had.

He jumped from a GradeII to winning the Derby. He won the Derby easily despite the fact that Lion Heart had it all his way setting very pedestrian fractions on the front end.

He won the Preakness by the most lengths ever in it's long history despite never being whipped.

The only question re his greatness would be his finishing times. But he ran the Derby on a sloppy track. And Pimlico was uncharacteristically deep for the Preakness.

I think this monster freak wins the Belmont the way Secretariat won the Belmont. Maybe not by 31 lengths but he'll win going away.

This horse has never lost. If he stays sound I think he'll retire as an undefeated horse probably to the biggest stud fees ever paid. Who's gonna beat him?! I hope they let him run in the Travers and then the Breeders Cup before they chase those big stud fees.

Having said all that, no horse is worth betting at 1-5, not even 2-5. So get a ticket as a memento only. They'll be talking about this horse for a long, long time.

Good luck to any who try to beat him.