My Pac 10 analysis for next season!

[Scott4USC]

Your welcomed to critique my pics &/or give your own..

1) USC - Too much talent for the rest of the conference. However, there could be one loss either to Oregon St. or Cal. I think the success to the USC season depends on the OL. Replacing 4-5 starters from last years great OL is nearly impossible for any team to do but luckily USC has a lot of young talent at that position thanks to superb recruiting. The OL is just lacking experience so this unit will be a question mark for the first 4-6 games of the year.

2) Cal - Returning the whole team but will lose a 1-2 games they shouldn't because of their defense. Rogers will have a phenomenal season. Cal will only lose 2-3 games next year. Tedford ?could? coach his last game for Cal.

3) Oregon - Offense will be solid with a more mature Clemons but the secondary is huge question mark and that is not good when your playing in the Pac 10.

4) Oregon St. - Good amount of talent - high octane offense unfortunately with a pic-happy QB. Defense should be ok. Again, they'll lose games they shouldn't. Success depends on the QB.

5) UCLA - Decent amount of talent and Olsen improves but the offensive scheme is still poor IMO, the defense has been completely stripped of all of its talent. The whole DL is gone and they lost a key LB and DB to the NFL. The offense will have to produce for UCLA to succeed and that is a huge question mark since the offense was horrible last season. The good news is the offense returns a lot of players and they now have 1 year under their belt learning the west coast offense (which I do not think works in college football).

6) ASU - Walter will put up some solid numbers and they'll hang with some teams. They've got some decent talent but they will lose some games because of their defense. Walter is a senior QB and I think something like 10 of the last 11 Pac 10 conference champions have been led by a senior QB. Leinart broke that streak last season.

7) WSU - Every year people say that they're going to fall back down to the bottom of the conference. IMO they have one of the best defensive players in the conference and they'll find a reliable QB. I think they also have a pretty competent coach. However, WSU loses WAY too many guys to be a top dog next year. WSU loses nearly everyone. People forget that for about 3-4 years WSU has had the same group of players. Should be a rebuilding year for WSU. WSU could just as easily finish in the top 5 of the conference.

8) Washington - Decent amount of talent but their coaching staff is still question mark. Also, questions at QB. It pretty much takes a junior or senior QB to make much of a splash in the Pac 10.

9) Arizona ? Could be the surprise of the conference. Stoops provides energy and a great defensive scheme (very similar to Carroll when he took over USC). Team plays with fire and should surprise some people. I thought Arizona improved greatly at the end of the year and were playing much better competitive football. I think Stoops continues on that small momentum and remember, Arizona played the 4th toughest SOS last season. Overall, I think Arizona will rebound, but they have little talent, and the talent they do have is young.

10) Stanford ? I think Stanford will be decent because they had very young team last season. Coaching is still question mark and it will be interesting to see what Stanford does this season. Decent talent in some spots but not enough to win more than 3 games. Teevens needs to prove himself this year or else he could be out the door as head coach.

Contenders: USC, CAL, Oregon
Pretenders: UW, Arizona, Stanford
Darkhorse: Oregon St.

 

[Devil Dog]

Good Analysis

Good Analysis

Thanks for your early season thoughts.
Tedford is good but he is not that good that he can beat the men of Troy 10/9/04 in the L.A. Memorial coliseum; I suspect the Trojans will have their ears pinned back for this one and will take no prisoners.
Best Wishes
Devil Dog
"Hunches are part of the intellectual process; they're what you have stored in your mind from experiences."
Arthur Erickson

 

[Felonious Monk]

USC shouldn't have a drop-off with their OL unit. As long as they have 32 guys that can bench 400 lbs and the best recruiting class in the history of mankind for 2 years straight, all they conceivably need to do is rotate them accordingly.

Frankly, I'm shocked at you hinting a probable loss after convincing all of us how great your team is. Nice insurance post. I guess if and when your team falls on it's collective face this year you can always direct your adversaries to this thread.

 

[THE KOD]

Frankly, I'm shocked at you hinting a probable loss after convincing all of us how great your team is. Nice insurance post. I guess if and when your team falls on it's collective face this year you can always direct your adversaries to this thread.

.........................................................................

MONK

LMAO ! Man have you got this guy pegged or what!

I would just have to add that if USC loses a game I hope there are no guns or sharp knives in Scott4USCs house.


KOD

 

[Scott4USC]

Felonious Monk :nooo:

Frankly, I'm shocked at you hinting a probable loss after convincing all of us how great your team is. Nice insurance post. I guess if and when your team falls on it's collective face this year you can always direct your adversaries to this thread.

I guess you are not updated on the current situation of the USC Trojans. I did say that USC was virtually a lock to win another NC and basically was saying the NC is theirs to lose. I was going to put my money where my mouth is, (like I always do) and put $1000 on USC to win NC and $1000 on USC to win the Pac 10. I did not like the lines at 3-1 or 4-1 so I decided to wait hoping they would go up. Then all the bad news hit USC so luckily I did not wager $1000 on it but I did throw down $100 at 4-1. The funny thing is USC still is 3-1 to win the NC despite all these shortcomings. However, things have changed for the bad for USC since I made those comments.

#1) Kenechi Udeze left eary to go to the NFL but that did not hurt USC too much because USC has sick talent on the DL so he can be somewhat replaced despite him leading the nation in sacks last season.

#2) USC lost Mike Williams to the NFL. This means USC lost WR Colbert (USC all time leading WR) and Williams (maybe USC all time best WR and the most dominating WR in the country). SO yes, USC having to now replace 2 awesome WR for next year will hurt. USC has sick talent at WR but inexperienced talent, but if Williams had stayed, the WR unit at USC would easily been the best in the country.

#3) USC OL Winston Justice was arrested for violating his probation for carrying a BB Gun (and I think this hurts the most of the 3). USC automatically suspended him for a year. Justice was the #4 rated OL in the country coming into next season. So now USC lost 3 starting senior OL to NFL, 1 starting OL to suspension, and another starting OL to injury (but will return sometime in the fall). THAT MEANS NOW USC MUST REPLACE THE ENTIRE OL!!!!!!!!!!!! If you have any knowledge of football, you know OL is the hardest position for young players to play/learn. USC has super talent at OL but very little experience. Could be trouble.

As a result, your comments about me ended up making yourself look foolish. No way this was an No, this was not an insurance post. Things change all the time (for better or worse), and unfortunately, USC has now an even tougher task to repeat as co- NC's. I had predicted the NC was USC's to lose and that was why I was gonna bet $1000 on it (but i wanted at least 5-1) now with the current situation at USC, they will have to compete and earn their NC. USC now on a more level playing field, and despite these shortcomings, vegas and experts are still predicting USC to repeat. Imagine if USC didn't have all these shortcomings? THAT IS WHY I WAS GOING TO BET $1000 ON IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Devil Dog

Thanks for the nice words. Hopefully we can get more people to chime and give their opinion on the Pac 10.

 

[Felonious Monk]

blah blah blah........i WAS gonna bet $1000 on USC to win this and win that......blah blah......but we lost players to the NFL and our #4 All World OL got suspended for being a dipshit....blah blah blah........sick talent at every position but no experience....blah......my poor team.....blah blah....we can't catch a break....blah.....this should even the playing field because we're the only team in the nation that doesn't have all of their players returning...............

thank you for such an informative post. i didn't know your team faced such a crisis situation this year. the adversity must be overwhelming for you.

[PUKE]

 

[Scott4USC]

Felonious Monk

You completely missed the whole point of the post. You were saying I used my post as some type of "insurance post" and I explained why I am not so overly confident about USC winning the NC as I was before. Losing your #1 defensive player, #1 offensive player, and losing your #1 OL player to the NFL hurts, especially when you assumed all 3 were going to be playing next year at USC.

this should even the playing field because we're the only team in the nation that doesn't have all of their players returning

Your damn right it evens the playing field. If all those players or even 2/3 players returned to USC, then I would again proclaim USC to easily win the NC and be betting $1000 and putting my money where my mouth is. Think about it, USC was hands down the favorite to win the NC with all 3 of those players coming back, and now that all 3 players are not coming back, USC somehow still is the odds on favorite to win it all. Interesting.

 

[THE KOD]

Think about it, USC was hands down the favorite to win the NC with all 3 of those players coming back, and now that all 3 players are not coming back, USC somehow still is the odds on favorite to win it all. Interesting.

.....................................................................................

Monk

LMAO again !


Scott4Youknowwho

Your one sick fawk. Seriously I have never seen someone so enamored with a stupid football team. Your very difficult to take seriously you say such stupid things over and over.

:thefinger :moon: :thefinger

KOD

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Thanks, Scott.

I appreciate all posts that try and break down the second-tier conferences.

Anyone have any thoughts on the Sun Belt? I don't think that the Mean Green will get along so easily this year.

 

[OnaJ]

I did say that USC was virtually a lock to win another NC

Don't the have to win their "first" national title before they can win "another" national title? I think the funniest part of your post is that you think USC has shortcomings. Players have been leaving early for the pros for, Oh about 20 years now. Miami just lost the #1 safety in the country, the #1 tight end in the country, they lost their best D line man, and their best line backer. In fact they do it every year and still contend for a championship despite all these "shortcomings". Get with the program. I know you will tell me how I am wrong and you are right and this and that but get a clue, USC is not the only school that sends guys to the pros early or has guys get into trouble with the law. I know I know. Your right. I'm wrong. I'll just save you the time of typing that,.

 

[Scott4USC]

OnaJ

Your post is 100% correct yet had nothing to do with what I was saying. I never said USC was the only team in the country that lost superstar underclassmen. Let me spell the argument out to you.

After last season, I said I strongly feel USC will win the NC in 2005 and that I am willing to put $1000 on it. (very huge bet for me) THis was before the USC underclassmen declared. So now after these 2 underclassmen declared and 1 suspended, I now do not think so strongly that USC will win the NC next season. Felonious Monk was saying how I was posting my opinion now as some type of silly insurance and I explained WHY i now have changed my tune and that I am now betting $100 on USC instead of $1000. USC still is the odds on favorite to win the NC according to vegas odds and some publications. So bringing up Miami and how they lost superstar underclassmen had nothing really do to do with my posts. I also never meant to mislead you or anybody into thinking that USC is the only team affected by the underclassmen leaving. I am still amazed at how many 1st rounders Miami had this last NFL draft. (broke the old USC record)

 

[OnaJ]

Scott thanks for clearing that up, I understand what you are saying now

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

thanks for the insight Scott, very informative!

 

[SALTY DOG]

ONE thing you folks need to understand about scott usc, he and
his team have not experienced success in years, so when it finally
happens all of a sudden it's a dynasty. Miami, OU, Nebraska,
FSU, Tenn, FLA, Ohio ST., LSU, etc.,,,who have NC chances year
in and year out, all of a sudden take a back seat to the almighty
women of troy who can sneak in through the back door of the
BCS because they play in a pussy conference and don't have to
play in a conference championship like the BIG 12 and the SEC.
There are MANY teams that could beat usc if given the opportunity
but because of the schedule, nada. And you hide and watch,
usc will cakewalk thru the cremepuffs this year and walk thru
the back door again. That's why I refuse to get fired up about
the ncaa football until the come up with another MARCH MADNESS
only in DEC-JAN, .....PLAYOFF....which will never happen so people
like scott usc can beat their chests due to the freak nature of the
big bad ncaa money mongers. You want a real national champion,
make ALL conferences go thru the same shit the SEC and BIG 12
go thru, TO GET TO A PLAYOFF.............then a playoff......:moon:

 

[mansa_musa]

Scott -- thanks for the writeup!

I disagree w your order of things just a bit though.

1) USC
Enough talent to overcome the brand new OL, but, I think they wont be as dominant offensively because of it. I think their D will carry more of the load for them this upcoming season. I see ASU as a potential upset! Following the revenge game w Cal, Trojans should be full of themselves at that point.

2) OSU
I think Anderson will be most improved player in Pac 10 next yr IF he cuts his INT's in half or less. Talentwise that kid has few peers in the college game. Beavers had best D in Pac 10 last yr, an adequate unit (much like SC's last yr) should hold enough opponents below what their offense can score next yr.

3) Cal
Last yrs Cal team had so many holes in their defense that I dont think everybody returning is all that good of a thing. Their biggest win last yr will not be duplicated. How this program responds to high expectations is the story of next season. History says they dont live up to the hype.

4) ASU
I think there is a lot of truth to your theory about sr QB's in the Pac 10. Last yr's debacle of a season should galvanize this unit behind Walters. Their D is definitely a question mark though!

5) UCLA
I like the talent they have coming back on offense. Not many of the DL who left were flat out studs, so I dont think the players who replace them will cause that much of a fall off from last yrs stellar defensive unit. I think their lack of depth will hurt them late in games & in the season.

6) Oregon
I'm not sold on Clemons. Plus, their homefield not the advantage that it used to be.

7) UW
Way too many questions around the entire athletic program, let alone the football team. Not sold on Gilbertson as a head coach. Enough talent to surprise some teams, but, I cant tell what direction the program is heading in.

8) WSU
Probably undervaluing the Cougars, but, pride wont let me put them ahead of my Huskies. And their the only team w more ?'s than UW also.

9) AZ
Stoops will struggle in his 1st yr. He wont have the automatic influence that the name "Oklahoma Univ" gave to his brother in recruiting efforts. And there are no Baylors, ISUs or Kansas' to beat up on in the Pac 10. If you remember Scott, SC struggled mightily on offense in Carroll's 1st yr. Defense wont be enough to save the Wildcats. They should show up in Stoops 3rd yr.

10) Stanford
Interchangeable w AZ. Teevens hasnt improved the program since Willingham left. Experience alone should help the Cardinal improve, but will it help them win? My early answer is, no! What happened to Kyle Matter? He was supposed to be a superstud QB!

I think SC definitely loses 1 conf game & if they lose two, that might open the door for any of the teams I have listed 2 thru 6 to at least tie for the conf title.

 

[Scott4USC]

SALTY DOG I think your guilty of drinking one too many of your drink "SALTY DOG" :nono:

Last year USC won co-national championship with LSU with the majority of the media and major publications all agreeing USC being the best team in the nation last year!

USC has won 27 of their last 31 games!!!!!!!

In the last 2 years USC has won by an average of 3+ touchdowns!!!!!!

USC has the #1 OC in the nation!!!!!!!
USC has one of the best DC in the nation!!!!!!
USC has recruited back to back #1 recruiting classes!!!!!!
Last years USC recruiting class had the most 5 star players in this history of recruiting!!!!!!!!

In the last 3 years, USC has lost by double digits only once (11pt loss @ND), and the average loss by USC in the Pete Carroll era has been by 4.5pts!!!!!!!!

2 years ago USC went 11-2 playing the toughest schedule in the country and one of the toughest schedules in the last 10-20 years!!!!!!

USC has beaten their last 2 BCS BOWL OPPONENTS by an average of 17.5 pts!!!!

2 years ago USC won a heisman trophy!!

USC has accomplished all this in the first 3 years of the Pete Carroll era. Remember, last year was a rebuilding year for USC and USC won a National Championship. Pete Carroll is still building his program and getting the right guys to fit his and Chows system. Pretty scary if you think about it. That is why there is so much optimism at USC!!!!!! That is why the media is all over USC!

You comment how easy of a schedule USC has this upcoming year. Well USC originally asked Miami to play and they said no way. USC asked OU (who had 2 open dates just like USC) and they backed out. USC asked Michigan and volunteered to play @ Michigan (the supposedly big house) but they said no way. V-Tech stepped up to the plate and USC also scheduled Colorado St.

Then you say how USC walked through the back door last year. Where the heck have you been? Since you don't like/watch college football, maybe you should not comment on it. You make yourself look stupid.

USC was only .15 bcs pts behind LSU and everything went against USC last year vs everything going for LSU. Let me explain it to you since you come across being dense. USC would have increased their SOS + received QW pts if Washington St. beat Washington. WSU starting QB was out of game (strike 1 against USC) but WSU was ahead at the end of the 4th quarter but UW made a game winning drive to win game with 3min. left. If WSU won, USC would have received .50 bcs pts which ?easily? would have passed LSU in the final BCS standings. Who was lucky to get into the BCS title game?

Oh lets take it even further, USC lost @CAL in triple OT. In 2nd OT USC fumbled on the goal line on freak hit (hit by 2 players same time) and USC missed their 39 yard FG in triple OT and CAL made their 39 yard FG. Oh yeah, CAL also made a 52 yard FG during the game. Lets see about LSU, LSU beat UGA despite UGA completely dominating LSU on the field. Oh yeah, UGA also missed 4 FG?s during the game to ?help? LSU beat UGA. Oh, lets throw another game that went into LSU?s favor. They beat OLE MISS by only 3pts, and OLE miss kicker (who was an all American) missed 2 FG?s during the game with one of them to tie it. How lucky was LSU? Did USC get lucky at all during the season???

Just in case your still dumb enough to think USC back doored themselves lets throw more stuff at you. UCLA and Oregon St. BOTH lost prior to playing USC hurting USC SOS. In addition, ND and Hawaii both tanked at the end of the year, hurting USC SOS even further. Despite all that, LSU was only, ONLY .15 bcs pts ahead of USC.

So if USC played such an easy conference, and the scheduled OOC opponents tanked, everything possible going against USC, and LSU playing in such superior conference in the SEC, HOW THE FU** DID USC ONLY TRAIL LSU BY .15 BCS PTS IN THE FINAL BCS STANDINGS????

Thanks for the laugh SALTY DOG at your expense!
:toast:

 

[hm23]

I agree, in general, with your Pac-10 overview.

USC is the consensus conference favorite. They should have another shot at the national title.

I agree about Tedford and Cal. Tedford may move on to the NFL or a major program and the Bears will go as far as their defense will allow them - which is at the very least, a bowl game.

I don't think any other program is a serious contender. Oregon State and Washington State is a darkhorse, but Oregon, Washington, UCLA, Arizona, and Arizona State are all enigmas.

Stanford should be the cellar dweller.

 

[Avalanche]

Scott4USC, you obviously haven't evolved much since the last time I attempted to have a reasonable discussion with you concerning your biased obsession (nothing wrong with it, either) with USC or the Pac 10. However, in the most recent post by you where you point out that "just in case your (you're)dumb enough to still think that USC backdoored their way into the NC" --- I see you're still just as clueless as you've been previously, if not more.

Honestly you should be a K State fan. The Purple from Manhattan is the only reason why USC got to backdoor their way into a split NC. Of course K State was good enough to beat USC the last two meetings during the Carroll Era (by the way, have you measured Carroll's anatomy yet?).

Squaring off against two Big 10 teams for your BCS competition the last 2 years isn't very impressive, either. No one cares about the margin of victory, either.

But don't worry, the PAC 10 is still better than the Sun Belt.

Last year USC not having to play Oregon (the other decent team in the PAC10) really hurt the USC. And USC still didn't make it through the conference schedule undefeated.

Oh yes and Scott can you compare Nebraska and Stanford for me please? I would like to hear your analysis concerning these two "second tier schols" in terms of football.

The Pac 10 gets their measured respect. Unfortunately for you Pac 10 supporters the Pac 10 isn't really going to ever be viewed as a power conference nationally until you start winning some national championships. Sorry, but 1991 wasn't exactly yesterday.

 

[Scott4USC]

Unfortunately for you Pac 10 supporters the Pac 10 isn't really going to ever be viewed as a power conference nationally until you start winning some national championships. Sorry, but 1991 wasn't exactly yesterday.

Weak Pac 10??? :nono:

I was getting tired of hearing all the garbage talk on hear about how weak the Pac 10 is. Too bad all these SEC clowns (and Big 12 guys) have no facts...or a clue about anything. The fact is I looked up how each conference has fared against the other BCS conferences (including Notre Dame) since the BCS started in 1998. The results were as follows:

ACC: 68-61 (.527)
Big Ten: 71-64 (.526)
Pac 10: 56-55 (.505)
SEC: 55-58 (.487)
Big 12: 54-60 (.474)
Big East: 51-61 (.455)
Notre Dame: 33-29 (.532)

I think over 100 games per conference is sufficient sample size too prove my point. It should also be noted the SEC and Big 12 play less games (per team) against strong non-conference opponents....because they wimp out by playing the Louisiana-Monroe's and Florida A&M's of the world.

By the way, here is the Pac 10 vs. each conference:

Pac 10 leads the SEC:6-1
Pac 10 leads the Big Ten: 19-18
Pac 10 leads the Big 12: 17-16
Pac 10 leads the Big East: 6-5
Pac 10 trails the ACC:2-5
Pac 10 trails Notre Dame: 6-10

If your still not convinced and need more hard data proof, I have it for you.

The Pac-10 is the toughest conference and the winningest conference of the BCS conferences this decade (2000-2003). Since these clowns like to spout out about "Stop living in the past . . ." we aren't anymore, neither is the Pac-10 as a whole. Check out the link below and notice the Pac-10 leads in Total Points and in SCHEDULE POINTS!!

The cat is out of the bag what the Big-12 and the SEC's of the world were doing with their home schedules and overloading cupcakes at home, thereby "strengthening" the conference via fraud since the BCS only looked at W/L records: that will change this year. Click the link at the bottom: It does the Pac-10 and USC in particular proud!

Period: 2000-2003

Total
Points

#1 Pacific-10 Conference
940.05

#2 Southeastern Conference
864.10

#3 Big Ten Conference
824.25

#4 Big 12 Conference
805.05

#5 Big East Conference
799.98

#6 Atlantic Coast Conference
623.15

#7 Mountain West Conference
465.93

#8 Division I-A Independent
451.29

#9 Conference USA
417.54

#10 Mid-American Athletic Conference
396.90

College Football Data Warehouse

Squaring off against two Big 10 teams for your BCS competition the last 2 years isn't very impressive, either. No one cares about the margin of victory, either.

I guess your not a college football fan. 2 years ago Iowa was considered one of the hottest and best teams in the country. Many people felt Iowa could have beat OSU if they played and Iowa tied OSU for the Big 10 championship. OSU won the NC 2 years ago. Last year Michigan was the conference champion and many people felt Michigan was playing the best football at the end of the year offensively and defensively. You my friend are in the minority.

 

[Scott4USC]

Because of people like you, I was able to make a boat load of money betting on USC against OOC/bowl opponents the last 2 years. Thanks!

2 years ago all my OOC/bowl betting.......

Won $1000 played USC +3 @ CO (people didn't think pac 10 team could handle thin air and tough physical CO team)

Lost $50 USC +3.5 @ KSU (this was stupid bet from me cuz KSU was a much more physical team against USC and USC had no depth on defense AND had just played AU and @CO 2 consecutive weeks in a row while KSU been resting against DIV 2 opponents. Too bad a "senior" USC WR dropped the ball on the KSU 20 yard line which would have given USC 1st down with less than 2 min. in game down by 7 and USC mising 1 FG and extra pt in the game which would have given me the COVER!)

Won $1000 played USC against ND (completely dominated ND but people thought pac 10 team could not handle how physical ND plays)

Won another $1000 on USC -6 against Iowa (Big 10 football is way more physical than Pac 10 football)

Last year.......

Won $1000 played USC -3 @ AU (This is the SEC and in the south we play tough physical football, not like the Pac 10)

Won $200 on USC @ ND (I think USC was 2 TD favorites so no suprises)

Won 9k on USC -7 vs Michigan in Rose Bowl (Michigan won BIG 10 and Big 10 is so physical and dominant unlike the Pac 10)

Once again, thanks to people like you, I have been able to make a mint betting on USC against OOC competition as well as bowl competition.