ricknjax...
stayed in tonight...trying to be agood boy and save some cash..heading down to atlanta for the sox series...but dont know how long thats going to last...lol..getting antsy..
as far as the montreal pick is concerned i can give you some general analysis..jusy to tired for specifics but anytime during the day ill be happy to talk strategy ..
first off anytime i see a team laying over 150 i always take a close look at the dog in baseball..automatically...in this case you have Z day for montreal who can be a solid pitcher at times...and i honestly think that sooner or later cinci's pitching is going to falter..so in my opinion they are astill a team overachieving so to apeak...so ill take an even closer look at the dog...
no doubt montreal is off to a terrible start..but they are starting to get a little healthier..i like nick johnson in that line-up...and i think they have some good hitters who sooner or later will hit.. (vidro..etc.)..and i often see posts that say ..for example ..montreal is batting .200 against righties on the road....to me thats such a blanket statement i dont put much empahasis on it...i mean what righties have they faced?...have they seen this righty before?..have they hit this particular pitcher before...???..to me those are better questions to ask...i look at the specifics of the particular team vs. the particular pitcher...in this case i thought the pitcher vs. team matchup was even ...
my line would be about cinci minus 130-40..at the price they were tonight i just didnt think the match-up warranted such a line..in addition to the above..when a team is on a good streak or having a good year that the people did not predict..it takes vegas a while to become a believer and then they adjust the lines accordingly...i think you will see cinci as a big fave for a while against the so called lower level teams ..and to me that takes the value from them in those games..of course they are a worthy dog everytime out this year against the so called big boys..and i hope they continue their success...i just dont think they are a team that should be favored at over 140 against many teams..i dont trust thier starters even at this point..so ill be looking closely at big dogs against them...and like i said i think at some point montreal will hit and thier starters are not terrible..just have to pick your spots with them
hope this helps a bit my friend...
good luck
cooz
:drinky: 
