what is the better value?

[badjab]

Since I have detroit to win the series at +300, I was thinking of hedging my bet.

If I were to take LA to win the series now, I would get +350

However, would it simply be better to plan to bet Lakers on the moneyline 3 games in a row?

$100 on the future bet would yield $350

$100 on game 5 at +150 = $250 to bet on the moneyline for game 6 (maybe at -250) and ?? to bet on a game 7

any help would be appreciated.

 

[Bombs]

Hard to say whether its better to hedge the series here or go with individual games. One thing is for sure, no way in hell Lakers are -8 again at home. Something like -4 or -5 will probably be the number and even that is too high.

If I was going to hedge, I would just hedge out with the series. But to be honest with you, why hedge when you have the winning ticket in your hand already, at a price you just can't beat. You need to ask yourself if a wager on the Lakers right now is what you would do if you had no wagers on this event. If the answer is yes, then hedge.

 

[yyz]

Are you serious?

LA needs to win 3 games for you to lose the original wager!


Don't do a thing the next game, and see if Detroit wins. If they don't, make a hedge on game 6.

 

[badjab]

well, my original bet was $300 to win $900

so, if I were to bet $100 on the Lakers, my "hedge" would really only guarantee that I didn't lose any money.

I do agree that this looks like a winning ticket. The Lakers are done in this series, both physically and mentally.

However...

I would be more than pissed if they managed to somehow regroup and win three in a row.

Yet, there isn't much value getting +350. Seems like it should be more like 5-1.

I was just wondering from a numbers standpoint, how much it might yield for a 3 bet rollover on the moneyline. I tend to think it would be better than +350

 

[maverick2112]

I have basically the Pistons 5 units to win 65 now ..........I hedged 5 already........

The thing I keep thinking is that if Detriot blows this I deserve to lose any and all $$$$........I wish I had the balls to lay all potential 65 units to win 15 on the Pistons

 

[Eternal]

Badjab,
take yyz's advise............the Pistons are running on all cylinders and the Lakers are running out of gas.....if you've watched any of these games what in the world would make you think that LA has any chance of now reeling off 3 in a row......they have been outplayed in just about every phase of the game....


Unless Shaq+Kobe can score 30 a piece plus Walton/Fisher/George/Fox/Rush can combine for another 30 the Puddlers don't stand much of a chance........if they had the ability to do this against the Detroit D, don't you think they would have in at least 1 of the last 2 games.................there is no need to hedge, Detroit won't let this series go back to LA.......

And yes, I will be on DET -3 tonight

 

[i'm not the one]

det wins the championship IN LA!!!!!!

 

[yyz]

I'm not saying he shouldn't hedge, just not today. What do you gain if LA loses tonight? You have lost some of your wager on Detroit, and still need LA to win 2 more games!

Wait until LA wins two games, and take them in game 7.


------------------------------------

I just re-read that, and it looks a little muddled.

If LA loses tonight, you will win the Detroit wager, but have diminished the payout by taking LA to win. If LA wins, you have gained nothing, unless it was a straight wager on just this one game. If that is the case, you might get a hedge out of it.

At any rate, I would still ride out tonight's game, in the hope that Detroit wins.

 

[maverick2112]

Wait until LA wins two games, and take them in game 7.

What does everyone think the line and moneyline will be if there is a game 7........

maybe


Detroit
Los Angeles -4 <2.60>??????????????

 

[badjab]

just making a small play tonight....

teaser: Lakers +7 under 174

hoping the Pistons close them out, but looking for a tight game (of course, if the Lakers look spent at halftime, I'll probably lay the wood on Detroit for the 2nd half)