series info
series info
BASEBALL Analysis
BEGINNING FRIDAY JUNE 25
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Reds have cooled off a bit, but they?ve dominated the Pirates in head to head play this year (5-2, +$340) and it?s hard to ignore their sensational 17-5 record vs. righthanders at great American Ballpark. Pittsburgh has hit the skids (2-9, -$635 last 11) and their highly regarded mound corps has failed to meet expectations (6.90 ERA among starters last 10 days). The exception is Oliver Perez (3.68) so we?ll stay on the sidelines when he takes his turn. The rest of the rotation is fair game. BEST BET: Reds vs. righthanders.
Chicago Cubs at Chicago W. Sox (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Windy City has two legitimate playoff contenders for the first time we can remember, which makes this matchup all the more compelling. It?s hard to go against the Cubs right now (9-2, +$795 last 11 days), especially after watching the Sox pitching staff surrender 28 runs to the anemic Expos. But the numbers vs. righthanders at Comiskey are just too scary (16-8, +$545 with 5.9 runs per game) and the Cubs? only southpaw is not expected to see action. We?ll take a closer look on game day. BEST BET: None.
Montreal at Toronto (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
Baseball in Canada isn?t what it used to be, and if major league baseball has its way, this may be the final season we?ll get to see this inter-province rivalry. Both team are mired in or near last place, the Expos offense is the worst in baseball (only 3.1 runs per game) and they?ll be getting a steady diet of righthanders this weekend at Skydome (11-32, -$1900 in that situation). But it?s hard to even consider any member member of the Blue Jay staff except Roy Halladay (3.84) and we expect him to miss this series. BEST BET: None.
Philadelphia at Boston (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Red Sox are tough to beat in night games at Fenway park (15-5 so far) but fortunately for the Phillies, two of these three games are afternoon affairs. The current plan is for randy Wolf (2.91 ERA in 10 starts) to return from the DL and pitch on Sunday, possibly as a heavy underdog vs. Pedro Martinez. The Red Sox average a full run less per game against lefthanders and they?ve dropped a bundle as a favorite this year (-$1060). We?ll take the visitor with the price as they look to keep pace in the NL East. BEST BET: Wolf.
N.Y. Mets at N.Y. Yankees (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
Last year the Yankees swept all six games from the hapless Mets, and considering their 18-3 record vs. lefthanders (+$1395) we won?t be backing Al Leiter when he takes the mound (Glavine should miss this series). But the Mets have a chance to break through with Steve Trachsel. He?s put up solid numbers for the visitor (3.44 ERA) and the Bombers have been burying their backers when taking on righthanders (-$1055). BEST BET: Trachsel/Yankees vs. lefthanders.
Colorado at Cleveland (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
It?s hard to take the Rockies away from Coors Field, given that appalling 8-25 road record. But they check in with a 9-4 record vs. lefties (+$695 with 6.3 runs per game), just the opposite of the host Indians (Tribe 6-15, -$1000 vs. southpaws). On the other hand, Cleveland has dominated righthanders (+$1380) while Colorado has floundered in that situation (-$1885). We?ll play this series accordingly, and pass any mixed matchup. BEST BET: Indians when righty meets righty/Rockies when lefty meets lefty.
Arizona at Detroit (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Tigers looked like they were ready to fold a couple of weeks ago, but they?ve held tough (5-5, +$165 last 10 days with a 3.51 ERA among starters). They have a weakness vs. lefthanders, but they won?t have to face Randy Johnson, and their numbers vs. righties are hard to pass up (+$1310), especially as Arizona?s money losses continue to mount (-$1940). BEST BET: Tigers vs. righthanders.
Florida at Tampa Bay (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Devil Rays put together the best winning streak in franchise history (11-0, +$1405) to pull themselves into 3rd place behind in the AL East and within reach of .500, something that seemed inconceivable a month ago. But statistically they still rank at or near the bottom of the league (.257 team BA, 4.82 ERA) while the Marlins remain one baseball?s elite squads (3.99 team ERA). They are 17-11 (+$560) on the road vs. righties, and we might catch some short road prices, because the home team has been so hot. BEST BET: Marlins vs. righthanders
Atlanta at Baltimore (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The O?s can hit, but their pitching has collapsed (5.52 ERA), dropping them into last place and perilously close to the worst record in the AL. The only pitcher who might have a chance is Eric Bedard (0.90 last two starts, Atlanta 8-15, -$880 vs. lefties), but if he misses the series, as appears likely, we?ll stick with a pair of Atlanta hurlers who have looked sharp despite the disappointing showing by the Braves so far. BEST BET: Ortiz & Wright unless opposed by Bedard.
Houston at Texas (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Astros appeared poised to run away with the NL Central back in April, but WP readers were warned that this was a grossly overpriced team, and their unfortunate backers have been paying dearly (35-33, -$1595 so far). The Rangers have provided excellent value, particularly vs. righthanders here at Arlington (16-6, +$1245). Roy Oswalt is the biggest money burner in baseball by far (-$1485) and he looked dreadful in his recent starts (7.72 ERA), but chances are he?ll be a road favorite nevertheless. BEST BET: Rangers vs. Oswalt.
Milwaukee at Minnesota (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Brewers have caught us by surprise, with a 35-31 (+$1080) record, well within striking distance in the NL Central. They took 2 out of 3 from the Twins last week (6-3, +$390 vs. the AL so far) and we?ll look to use them often in the days ahead. The Twins are very tough vs. righties in night games at the Metrodome, but they only average 4.4 runs per game vs. southpaws, which makes the vastly improved Doug Davis (+$465, 3.44 ERA) an excellent value as a road underdog. BEST BET: D. Davis.
St. Louis at Kansas City (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The red hot Cardinals (7-3, +$275 last 10 days) are the best team in the NL right now, thanks to a league leading offense (2.77 ERA) that averages 5.3 runs per game. KC has been a huge disappointment, with a rotation depleted by injuries (2nd highest ERA in the league) an an offense that is adequate at best (.263 team BA). The all-righty St. Louis rotation is tailor made for this series (Royals -$1040 vs. righties) and the Cards have been enormously profitable away from Busch Stadium (23-12, +$1165). BEST BET: Cardinals in all games.
San Diego at Seattle (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Mariners finally put together a decent run (7-2, +$485 last 10 days) and this may signal an overdue correction for a team that really isn?t that bad. Getting Gil Meche (7.07 ERA) out of the rotation was long overdue, and their 8-4 (+$380) record in inter-league play is encouraging. The Padres have slipped to 3rd place in the NL West (2-8, -$790 last 10 days) and since David Wells is not slated for action, the home team can fatten up on the visitor?s inconsistent righthanders. BEST BET: Mariners vs. Valdez, Eaton & Lawrence.
San Francisco at Oakland (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Giants have moved to within a game of first place in the NL West, led by the superb Jason Schmidt and his nine game winning streak (2.26 overall ERA). Another problem for the home team is that SF has done very well against lefthanders (13-8, +$495), which makes Oakland?s big southpaw trio far less imposing. The A?s look tough right now, but the visitor has solid underdog value in this setting. BEST BET: Schmidt/Giants vs. lefthanders.
Anaheim at Los Angeles (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
Jarrod Washburn has been a big money-maker this year (+$590) and he?s expected to take a turn at Chavez Ravine this weekend, despite making an early exit with back spasms in his start vs. Houston last Sunday. LA has some formidable numbers (.277 team BA, 3.75 ERA, near the top in the NL in both departments), but they have not fared well vs. lefties (-$380 overall with only 3.3 runs per game at home). Anaheim averages close to 5 runs per game and has held together despite a slew of injuries. BEST BET: Washburn.
and avg 3.3 runs per game
