Tour de France 04

[Scotty H]

Well we have a little under a week before one of the great sporting events starts and I thought that I would give my thought on this years event. First off it looks like all the real action will be in the last 11 days. I will write a serprate post on what I think the most inportant stages are going to be. Also if anyone has any clue on what book has any kind of odds please post em since I cannot seem to find any. Here are my thoughts on who the faves are and other riders.


Frist off is of course Armstrong. He has won it the last 5 years and going for an unprecidented sixth, but this year looks like he will face probably the deepest field he has ever faced. Of course Lance has the total package he can climb with the best best of them and is a great time trialest plus he has probably the number one team supporting him. But there are cracks in the armour this year. How will this new book that has come out effect him mentally (me personally don't think so) is he on form for the tour (He came in forth at the Dauphine libere which was the final tune up before the Tour) Also if it gets hot during some of the crital stages how will this affect him last year the heat got to him and he lost to Ullrich on one of the mountain stages if memory serves correct. Anyway he is still the man to beat. Now on to the contenders.


First off is Jan Ullrich he has won this race once and has come in second 5 times in 6 tries. He is probably the strongest contender to dethroning Lance he is a great time trialest and is good in the mountains (if you have seen him he uses the big ring to climb unbeliveible). He also won the Tour of Switzerland this year by 1 second. He has a great team in T Mobile but the loss of Alexandre Venokourov (3rd last year) will hurt him and the most important thing is Ullrich in top form because he did get droped during one of the mountain stages in the tour of Switzerland.

Next on the list is Iban Mayo He is a great climber (If anyone can find odds on the Time Trial up Alp d'Huez take this guy he won the stage last year) BUT not a great Time Trialest . He won the Dauphine Libere beating Lance by 2 minutes. (he won the time trial up Mt Ventoux) He looks to be in great form but the only thing that might hurt him is his team (they all have to be from the Basque region) . He will probably lose a couple of minutes during the team time tiral Probably a podium finish

Tyler Hamilton has a great chance to win this year. Again he has the complete package can Time trial and climb. He won Tour of Romandy this year and came in second at the Daphine Libere 30 seconds behind Mayo. Also he has a very strong team(Phonax) this year so during the team time trial he should limit his loses. Last year he came in 4th after fracturing his sholder in the 2nd or 3rd stage. He is tough and he is my pick to win this years race. You herd it here first

Last but not least is Roberta Heras. This was Lanace's top lutinant in the mountains the past 3 years and now he his on his own. He won last years Tour of Spain so he can climb and Time Trial. He has not ridden a whole lot this year so I don;t have a lot of information on him or his team (Liberty-Seguros). But if you can win the Tour of Spain you are defentaly one of the favorites of the Tour. Will be back with some information on some of the other ridders and my take on the inportant stages

 

[Scotty H]

Here is some information on the riders for the Green jersey

PARIS, June 25 (Reuters) - Penpix of leading favourites for the Tour de France points classification (green jersey):

ALESSANDRO PETACCHI (Italy) Fassa Bortolo, age 30

Has taken the baton from compatriot Mario Cipollini as the best sprinter in the world. Nine stage wins in the Giro, a post-war record, brought his career victory tally to 73.

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ERIK ZABEL (Germany) T-Mobile, 34

At 34, Zabel is not as strong in finishes as he used to be but will still be looking for a 13th stage win. A record seventh green jersey could be out of reach especially as the T-Mobile team will be working mostly for Jan Ullrich.

MARIO CIPOLLINI (Italy) Domina Vacanze, 37

Will Super Mario finish the Tour for once? He claims not to be in his best shape but will be looking for a 13th stage win and every possible opportunity to beat Petacchi.

JAAN KIRSIPUU (Estonia) AG2R Prevoyance, 35

At 35, the Estonian is on the way down. A little bit of luck could help him to win a stage, otherwise he might decide to help French team mate Jean-Patrick Nazon in the sprints.

STUART O'GRADY (Australia) Cofidis, 31

The Australian has only won one stage in seven Tours, but has regularly held the green jersey. He dreams of taking it to Paris this time, with the help of France's Jimmy Casper, and becoming the third successive Australian to win the points standings.

THOR HUSHOVD (Norway) Credit Agricole, 26

The most improved sprinter of the season, with seven wins, the Norwegian will be a serious contender for the green jersey, especially as he climbs better than most sprinters. Can count on the help of France's Damien Nazon.

BADEN COOKE (Australia) FDJeux.com, 26

The Australian has had an erratic season but with his natural talent he should be able to defend his green jersey successfully.

ROBBIE MCEWEN (Australia) Lotto-Domo, 32

The 2002 green jersey winner will hope to claim it back from fellow Australian Baden Cooke and seek to add a fourth Tour stage to his tally.

TOM BOONEN (Belgium) Quick Step-Daevitamon, 24

The most promising sprinter in the world is taking part in his first Tour. A green jersey would be a real feat for the Ghent-Wevelgem winner.

OSCAR FREIRE (Spain) Rabobank, 28

The double road world champion has won only one stage in his two Tour appearances. The Milan-San Remo winner could bid for the green jersey on sheer class, but is expected to save his strength for the end of the season classics and the Athens Olympics in August.


If PETACCHI can make it through the mountains I think he has a great shot at the green jersey. Also I think it is worth taking a shot at Petacchi for most stage wins in this tour.

 

[lay the wood2]

a good site to follow the US Postal team is www.thepaceline.com

the mountain stages come later in the race this year so we might not see US Postal and Lance take charge until further into the race but i am sure that the team will be ready.

GL
ltw2

 

[Scotty H]

Well the Tour starts in a few hours as I am writing this and having a couple more :drinky: :drinky: I am going to break down the most important stages in this years Tour. Here thay are:


Stage 4 Team Time Trial 65 km or a little over 40 miles. Look for the Posties to win this stage BUTT the only problem is that the other teams are on a sliding scale (see here for more

) This is how i see the out come of this stage Posties first with T-Mobile(Ullrich) and Phonex (Hamilton) not far behind. If you can find any odds on this stage go with the Posties to win or if can get odds af say 1-7 or up it is worth maybe laying a little coin on T-Mobile or Phonex because thses teams have a liget shot at winning this stage. On a personal note i hope that the Euskaltel team (Iban Mayo ) can stay under 2 minutes of the winning team I would hate to see them behind over 3 minutes (like last year) and be down only 2min30sec down. I personly do not like this new wrinkle in the Team Time Trial. OH IF ANYONE KNOWS OF A BOOK THAT HAS ODDS ON THE TOUR PLEASE POST EM.

Wil be back with more info on the other stages. One other thing look for the winning time in the first stage to be around 7-8 minutes I think Well the site did not come up for some reasone so let me try this http://sports.yahoo.com/sc/news;_yl...N0aA--?slug=ap-tourdefrance&prov=ap&type=lgns

 

[Snafu]

Nice write up, thanks.

Centrebet ( not a MJ sponsor ) gives some odds to thr Tour:

Best Climber - Red Polka Dot Jersey ( Mayo 6.00 )

Best Finish - Group of 5 (Prologue)

Best Finish - Head To Head Best Sprinter - Green Jersey

Head To Head - Prologue Lance Armstrong Stage Wins

Outright Race Winner Outright Top 3

Prologue Group of 3 Win Stage - Prologue

Good luck

 

[bjfinste]

Last year Pinnacle had stage-by-stage matchups. Unsure about this year, but I would at least check them out.

 

[Scotty H]

Well I am having hugh computer problems right now, but wanted to try and give my thoughts on the Tour so far. todays stage was just bruttle. I feel very bad for Iban Mayo who crashed before the cobblestone part of the race and never was able to catch the pelliton. He is now down aroud 4: 30 and is going to lose even more time tomorrow in the Team Time Trial. I belive that he will be down at least 7minutes if not more after this. Because of this he has absolutly no shot at winning this years race which is sad because he is great in the mountains (Can't wait till Alp d'Hez). Even after this I still think that he will be in the top 8 at the end of the Tour which is a great accomplishment considering what happen today.

Tomorrows stage is supper inportant for the remaing contenders. Postal is the odds on favorite to win tomorrows stage but T-Mobile (Ullrich) and Phonax (Hamilton) have a liget shot also. It is vital that Liberty-Seguros (Roberta Heras) lose no more than 1:30 or I think that his chances of winning are very slim. This is a stge where Lance can put a lot of time on his main rivals. It should be a exciting day tommorow. Will try to give more thought on the race when possible. Oh a big thankyou PET and bjfinste FOR THE SITES. HERE ARE THE ODDS FOR FOR TOMORROWS STGE FROM PINNICLE:


Tour de France: To Win Tour de France 2004
Wed 7/7 Team Time Trial Stage Winner (ALL IN)
05:15 AM 301 All teams not in the list +1700
302 US-Postal +130
303 Team CSC +275
304 Liberty Seguros +450
305 Phonak +450
306 T-Mobile +500
307 Illes Balears-Banesto +1700
308 Credit Agricole +2500

Now if I am reading this right and if Postal is +130 this is a great price and I would deffently put a bet down on this I would also hedge with a bet on either Phonak at +450 or T-Mobile at +500 which ever. Put 2units on Postal and hedge with 1unit on either T-Mobile or Phonek because i think that these are the top 3 teams in this tour.

 

[Scotty H]

Well I am finally back after fixing my computer and work abligations. First I will talk about tomorows stage and then my thoughts on the tour so far. Tomorrows stage is probably the most anticipated for the whole tour, an expected 1 million people wil be crawling all over Alp d'Huez for the Time Trial. I hope Jack does not mind but this but the ONLY book that I can get odds on for tomorrows stage is CENREBET (Thanks again PET). Here they are:

ARMSTRONG, Lance (USA)
1.40
BASSO, Ivan (ITA)
6.00
ULLRICH, Jan (GER)
6.50
KL?DEN, Andreas (GER)
12.00
MOREAU, Christophe (FRA)
23.00
LEIPHEIMER, Levi (USA)
31.00
AZEVEDO, Jose (POR)
34.00
MERCADO, Juan Miguel (ESP)
34.00
PEREIRO, Oscar (ESP)
34.00
SEVILLA, Oscar (ESP)
34.00
LANDALUZE, Inigo (ESP)
41.00
MANCEBO, Francisco (ESP)
41.00
RASMUSSEN, Michael (DEN)
41.00
ROGERS, Michael (AUS)
41.00
TOTSCHNIG, Georg (AUT)
41.00
GOUBERT, Stephane (FRA)
51.00
GUTIERREZ, Jose Enrique (ESP)
51.00
SIMONI, Gilberto (ITA)
51.00
GONZALEZ JIMENEZ, Aitor (ESP)
61.00
SASTRE, Carlos (ESP)
81.00
VIRENQUE, Richard (FRA)
81.00
MONCOUTIE, David (FRA)
101.00
ANY OTHER RIDER (Not Listed)
13.00

Now these are all on the Plus side the way I look at it. which makes no sense to me, But when you plug in the nubers it comes out on the plus side. I personally think that I an doing something wroung.But if I am not these are OUTSTANDING odds. The obvisious choice is Lance who has look great in the mountains so far and at + 140 (There is no way this can be right) is unherd of . The obvisious second choice is Basso and at 6-1 odds is even more out of wack. SOMEONE RECONFIRM THIS BECAAUSE THERE IS NO WAY IN HELL THAT THIS IS RIGHT. i WILL COME BACK LATTER AND GIVE MORE THOUGHT ON TOMORROWS STAGE

 

[neverteaseit]

Basso is not a good choice imo. he is not great time trial specialist. I think these odds are way to low for him. I think ullrich will lay it all out today and possibly win the stage. I would take ullrich before anyone. Armstrong will look to not loose time to basso be he can spare some seconds to ullrich. just my opinion. I think ullrich rides like a man possessed today and he either wins or crashs one of the 2.