Il 2004

[gsp]

It's a lot easier if you do it day by day. Here's where we stand before last night which I've still got to do. I'm not breaking it down on a daily basis before last night's game. Here it is by series and a couple of things I've noticed. If you remember I said that home teams and favs and home fav all had big adv. Also that the winner of game 1 win series. Now if you have paid attention to just those four things you might not win every game but it will keep you out of a lot of trouble.

Series 1

HT-----------25-16 (Phil and CWS only played two games)
Fav----------29-11
HF-----------20-8
Totals-------17-20-4
Winner of Game 1 wins series-------9-4

Series 2

HT-----------28-14
Fav----------28-14
HF-----------21-9
Totals-------25-17
Winner of Game 1 wins series-------11-3

The home team has not had a losing night. I found this interesting. In game 3 of series 2 the home team went 7-7 (the worst night for the ht). On that night the fav went 12-2. In game 2 of that series the ht went 12-2 and the fav went 7-7 (the worst night the favs have had)

Favs have had two 12-2 nights. HF have had 7 wins all but 1 night. That was a 6-3 night. They have had one night where they lost over 3. That was a 7-4 night.

What I look for is a team at home that won game 1, lost game 2 and is now the fav in game 3. That's only happened 3 times so far. Those games are 3-0. The problem this year is that the favs have been over 200. In this situation I'll go up to -170 but not over that. I'll take 3 teams that I really like and am playing as a par and play a second par with the big fav added. It will more than double your original payout and make it worth a play. The best part about knowing that this fav will win even more than normal is that it should keep you off the dog no matter how good it looks. A loser is always nothing more than, a loser and everyone of those you dodge will make a big difference at the end of the year.

I'll add last night as soon as I get a chance. I haven't capped a single game for tonight and haven't even done my homework from last night's games.

Hope this helps some of you guys that are struggling with IL this year. This is always one of my best times of the year.

 

[lowell]

thanks for sharing as usual

 

[gsp]

Last night was the first series this year in NL parks.

Series 3 Game 1
HT------------8-6
HF------------5-3
Fav-----------8-6
Totals--------5-9-1

Nothing surprising but nothing exciting either. This is the least number of HF to win in a night this year. This was also the least number of HFs for any night this year. There are nine tonight.

 

[Cie]

There are nine tonight.

Thx for the info, but nine of what??

 

[gsp]

HF is very short for home favorite. That's what that paragraph was talking about

Good luck tonight

 

[Cie]

Thx for the reply. I was counting Hou until I realized it's not an IL game.

GL:weed:

 

[gsp]

Series 3 game 2

HT-----------9-5
HF-----------7-3
Fav----------9-5
Totals-------9-5

There are 4 series that are undecided. Three of the game 1 winners are favs today and one is a dog. Two are home favs. The teams are CWS (only dog), Ana, Atl (ht), and the Mets (ht).

Seems to me there are more sweeps this year than usual.

 

[gsp]

There is now another series that's undecided. I have edited my previous post to reflect that. Det was the winner of game 1. We went into today with 9 winners of game 1 already winning the series. Atl is going to have to get busy or they are going to blow it.

 

[gsp]

Last night concluded the first series in NL parks.

Series 3 game 3

HT-------------------8-6
HF-------------------4-5 (first losing night this year)
Fav------------------5-9 (first losing night this year)
Totals---------------5-9

For series 3

HT-------------------25-17
HF-------------------16-11
Fav------------------22-20
Totals---------------19-22-1

Team winning game 1 wins series 11-3

Sweeps 6 (there have been more sweeps than usual this year)

The thing that jumps out at me is, although the HT winning per centage stayed about the same, the HF dropped dramatically. Also the favs dropped to just barely above 50% from just below 70%. Big differences.

I've been tracking these for the past four years and this last series is not the norm. Atl, Phil, and SD went 2-7 as HFs. Just a 5-4 record would have put the per centages back where I'm used to seeing them. It's not time to over-react.

 

[Cie]

Thx for the info. I ca$hed in nicely on Mets last night in this situation.

GL:weed:

 

[gsp]

The AL did a number on the NL last night, a great night for the dogs.

Series 4 game 1

HT------------5-9
HF------------2-7
Fav-----------5-9
Totals--------6-7-1

I'm going to be very careful tonight and look for several favorable plays tomorrow.

 

[gsp]

Things went back closer to normal yesterday but dog players in this series should be having a field day.

Series 4 game 2

HT--------------------9-5
HF--------------------5-3
Fav-------------------7-7
Totals----------------8-6

There are 8 undecided series but only two teams that won game 1 are favs today. Hou is the only HF and CWS is a RF.

 

[gsp]

Yesterday some things played out the way they have in the past but this series was not normal. In the past only 3 or 4 teams sweep a series. There were 6 possibles and 4 swept. Tx, Sea, Mets and TB. Sea and the Mets were fav every game while Tx and TB were dogs in every game. Here's how last night went

Series 4 game 1

HT--------------7-7
HF--------------6-5
Fav-------------8-6
Totals----------1-10-3 (feel sorry for the over players)

Series 4

HT----------------21-21
HF----------------13-15
Fav---------------20-22
Totals------------15-23-4
Teams that win game 1 wins series --------9-5

As odd as this IL series was there were some things worth mentioning that were in keeping with other years. There were 8 games yesterday where the series was undecided. There was only 1 home fav that had won game 1 and lost game 2. Hou was a winner. The home teams won 6 of the 8 and 5 of the 6 winners were favs.

 

[gsp]

Back in AL parks and things got back to normal. One rainout in NY.

Series 5 game 1

HT-------------7-7
HF-------------5-3
Fav------------9-5
Total----------7-7

 

[gsp]

Series 5 game 2

HT----------8-6
HF----------7-3
Fav---------9-5
Totals------6-8

Six teams are going for the sweep. Tor, Ana, Tx, TB, Det, Stl.
Two HTs that won game 1 and lost game 2 and are favs today are Bos and Minn.

 

[gsp]

We have now fininshed series 5 of IL.

Series 5 game 3

HT-------------6-8
HF-------------5-3
Fav-----------10-4
Totals--------10-4
Teams that won game 1 wins series----9-5

Det and Stl were the only teams to sweep. Bos and Minn were the only home favs to win game 1 and lose game 2. They split.

Series 5

HT-----------21-21
HF-----------17-9
Fav----------28-14
Totals-------23-19

 

[gsp]

Here's a summary of IL series 6. Notice that if you followed the guidelines for game 1 of an interleague series it would have been almost impossible to lose. Look for home favs, favs, home teams, and don't even consider a road dog.

Series 6 game 1

HT-----------11-3
HF------------10-3
Fav-----------10-4
Totals--------11-2-1

Game 2

HT-----------8-6
HF-----------7-4
Fav----------9-5
Totals------7-7

Game 3

HT----------10-4
HF------------7-2
Fav-----------8-6
Totals-------7-6-1

Series 6

HT----------29-13
HF----------24-9
Fav---------27-15
Totals-----25-15-2

The winner of game 1 wins series----------9-5

There were 5 teams that swept, Mets, Colo, Stl, SD, CC. All home teams.

This year's IL has been a little odd. There was one series where the HT, HF and Favs all would have lost more than they won. I don't believe I've seen that before. I still wound up making money on IL this year but not the way I have in previous years. I still will look forward to next year.

Hope this has let some of you have an edge this year.

 

[Blackman]

Thanks man. I cashed in a few times over the past few weeks playing the "team that wins game one wins the series" theory.

Paid off nicely on a few rubber matches.