Purdue over 7 wins -155

[nut flush]

What do you guys think? I put a nickel on the over.


thx

2004 SCHEDULE
Sep 5 vs Syracuse 1:30 PM
Sep 11 vs Ball State TBA
Sep 25 at Illinois 12:00 PM
Oct 2 at Notre Dame 2:30 PM
Oct 9 at Penn State 4:30 PM
Oct 16 vs Wisconsin 5:30 PM
Oct 23 vs Michigan TBA
Oct 30 at Northwestern TBA
Nov 6 at Iowa TBA
Nov 13 vs Ohio State TBA
Nov 20 vs Indiana TBA

 

[markh]

They are going to have to score 40 pts. a game this year with most of their defense graduating. No doubt that the Boilers will score this year, question is can their D stop other teams. Quick look, I would say they start 3-0. ND will be improved this year, so lets say 3-1. Then next up at Penn St, lets say 4-1. Lets say they split home games against Wisky and Michigan. 5-2 now, win at NW and loss at Iowa, 6-3. Can't see them winning at Ohio St. but getting a win at IU. I see 7-4. But hey what do I know. Just my thoughts.

MH

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

I see 5 expected wins with 3 games that are a toss up (Iowa, ND, and Penn State) and all three of those are on the road. Throw in the heavy juice and I don't like the bet at all.

 

[Master Capper]

Tiller is too good of a coach to lose too many games with arguably the best offense in the Big 10 and he gets most of the big boys at home so I am thinking 8-3!

 

[Scott4USC]

nut flush

I agree with markh and BobbyBlueChip and both gave solid reasonings. Purdue "should" IMO win 6, 7, or 8 games this year. So laying -155 is a lot of juice if you think Purdue wins 8 games and you only break even with them winning 7. Not a whole lot of favorable arguments you can make for Purdiue and their schedule. Good luck with your Purdue bet.

Let me offer a suggestion on a great futures bet. If you are willing to lay $500 on -155 juice, you should take a look at TENNESSEE! I bet $200 on this wager.

Over 8 reg season wins -155
Under 8 reg season wins +125

Here are some facts about their schedule.

- First 4 games are AT HOME. Sounds easy too me. Nice way to break in your team and get things ironed out before playing on the road.

- Tennessee only plays 4 road games all year!!!!! Only 1 road game is against a quality opponent and that is against Georgia.

That said, we just need 9 wins for Tennesse to win our bet!!! :spotting:

I chalk up one loss for Tenn. and that is against Georgia.

I chalk up relatively easy wins against UNLV, Lousiana Tech, Ole Miss, Alabama, South Carolina, Vandy, and Kentucky. Tenn. should win all these games.

So now we have 7 wins and 1 loss.

Then Tenn. has Florida, Auburn, ND all at home. You just need Tennessee to win 2 of those 3 and you win $$$$. If Tennesseee wins 1 of those 3, you break even. What are the chances Tenn. goes 0-3 to those 3 teams all at home? I like my chances a lot. At worse, Tenn. should win 8 games this season with their favorable schedule.

September 5 UNLV
September 18 Florida
September 25 Louisiana Tech
October 2 Auburn
October 9 at Georgia
October 16 at Mississippi
October 23 Alabama
October 30 at South Carolina
November 6 Notre Dame
November 20 at Vanderbilt
November 27 Kentucky

 

[markh]

Now that is what I am talking about Scott. Productive capping on any team! I like it. You really did sell me on the Vols. I guess if we all took long looks at a certain of number of teams and how their home games stack up we could get alot of winners on team total wins for futures. I agree whole heartedly that the Vols can walk away with a 9 win season, as long as the QB situation sorts itself out.

MH

 

[mansa_musa]

I also agree w Bobby Bluechip re: Purdue's odds of winning the eight games that you need to win your bet. Way too much juice to lay w a relatively tough schedule to secure 8 wins with.

I have to disagree w Scott re: Tennessee. Looking at their schedule, I can definitely see a 2-4 beginning to the season for the Vols. Zook at Florida & Tuberville at Auburn are in make or break seasons for them. Early wins at Tennessee are a must for both of their programs hopes for successful seasons. 2-2 after the first 4 games of the yr, means the Vols need to run the table to win that bet. I consider every road game, except @ Vandy, loseable since the Vols are breaking in a new QB. By the time they play @ S Car, Holtz will probably be in the same position as Zook & Tuberville & badly in need of a win over a big name SEC team. I see Tennessee as a 6-8 win team next yr, if they split the FL/Aub games. I think you will be extremely lucky to win that bet.

 

[Scott4USC]

mansa_musa

After analyzing this bet, I am willing to risk $310 to win $200 that Tennessee can and will beat UNLV, Lousiana Tech, Ole Miss, Alabama, South Carolina, Vandy, and Kentucky, prob. lose to UGA, and win 2/3 at home against FL, AU, and ND or win 1/3 vs those teams to get my money back! If Tennessee cannot do that, then they are not very good team nor a very good coached team IMO and look for FULMER to be on the hot seat. Tenn. fans are starting to get fed up. No excuses for Tenn. not to win 8 or more games next year.

Now you focused on Auburn and Florida being able to beat Tenn and having Tenn. possibly starting the season 2-2. Well I think Tenn. has just as much if not more talent than both Auburn and Florida. In addition, I get both those teams having to travel TOO TENNESSEE! I also feel AU and FL will not be able to out coach Tenn. Both programs have not impressed me much with their coaching.

Tenn. returns 5 starters on offense and 7 on defense. They should be strong on the DL and OL and I think those are the 2 most important units in football. They also will be having a lot of JR?s and SR?s starting from a team that won 10 games last year. Florida only returns 3 starters on defense and I think they will be weak on the DL. Auburn will be breaking in a new OC this season but they do return a lot of starters from last year. Last years AU team was not very good, so how good are those returning starters? I do know ?CADILLAC? Williams is the real deal!

Florida?s first big test and first big road game will be AT TENN. Florida opens their season with 2 home games against Middle Tenn. and Eastern Michigan. That should really get FL ready to play AT TENN. Plus Tenn. gets a bye prior to playing FL and get the kinks worked out after opening their season against a decent and veteran UNLV squad.

AU first tough road game will be against Tenn. but they will have been tested against LSU. Auburn will have played Louisiana Monroe, Miss. St, LSU, and Citadel. What a joke of an OOC schedule. I think playing UNLV, FL, and Louisiana Tech will make Tenn. a lot more prepared vs AU than AU being prepared coming into playing AT TENN. Especially if Auburn gets blown out by LSU. Does Auburn gain confidence from beating Citadel 45-0?

You may be right, Tenn. could very well be a 6-8 team next season. But I think you are wrong with that prediction. Overall, I think there are too many favorable things pointing in Tenn. way and I am willing to lose $310 on Tenn. not being able to win at least 8 games. Too good to be true, even if the vig is -155.

Plus I get to be a VOL fan for the year!!!!!

If you seriously think Tenn. wins 6 games next year, looks like you got yourself a VERY STRONG bet betting Tenn. winning under 8 games +125!!!!!!!

I also would be willing to bet anybody here a "hat" that Tenn. at the very least goes 3-1 on the road this season. I'll even throw in an extra $5 with the hat if I lose the bet. Any takers???

 

[Devil Dog]

Gamecocks

Gamecocks

The South Carolina game will be very" ify" ;Lou Holtz will out coach Fulmer and this is a very good Gamecock team this year. South Carolina has a bye week before getting Tennessee @ home and don't be mislead by the Kentucky game score or stats. My preseason power ratings that I compile have South Carolina winning by 1 pt. These are "Raw" preseason ratings.
Best wishes
Devil Dog

 

[Iowa Child]

I totally agree on South Carolina. They could well beat Tennessee at home.