Worth a hard look...

[USC Gamecock]

Some of you may want to take a hard look at playing the under(7/-135 at Olympic) on regular season victories for the Gamecocks this year.

Although many of the Gamecock's opponents are predicted to have "down" years this year (see Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Arkansas), it is still asking a lot for a team coming off of consecutive 5-7 seasons to win 8 games. Although I'm not a prophet, I just don't see the Cocks getting 8 w's, even under an optimistic scenario. I think the best case scenario is a 7 win season, and therefore a push.

Here's how the 2004 schedule looks, and my thoughts on the outcomes of each game:

Vandy (away) (tough, but probably a win) *
Georgia (home) (loss)
USF (home) (win)
Troy St. (home) (win)
Alabama (away) (loss)
Mississippi (home) (win) *
Kentucky (away) (tough, but probably a win) *
Tennessee (home) (loss, USC can't beat Vols) *
Arkansas (home) (tough, but probably a win) * (Arkansas owns Lou)
Florida (away) (loss)
Clemson (away) (loss)*

As you can see, even under my OPTIMISTIC scenario, USC only gets 6 wins. Games with an asterisk could go either way, but I have already counted 4 out of 6 as wins. It would be highly unlikely for USC to win all 6 "toss up games". Even if they win 5 outta 6 "toss ups" they only get 7 W's, which is a push.

There are no "sure things", and as we all know, ANYTHING can happen in college football. That being said, in my humblest of opinions, I think this is a great bet. I have already placed the max wager allowed. Best of luck to all.

 

[Master Capper]

Is Holtz history if they dont win 7 games this year?

 

[USC Gamecock]

Not necessarily. If they win 6 and go to a bowl all will be forgotten. While any kind of championship is coveted here, when reality sets in, it's a success if they go to a bowl every year, no matter what the record is. That's why we're so damn mediocre here b/c we are too damn complacent.

There is a lot of speculation that this year will be Holtz's last regardless of the outcome. I tend to believe the speculation.

 

[Master Capper]

they should bring in the guy from Memphis to take over if Holtz leaves.

 

[Scott4USC]

Looks like from this article South Carolina is making changes to win this season!

You gotta love anyone who would demote his own son is serious about winning. Minter was a great move IMO.

From the ESPN article....
"This offseason, Holtz let four coaches go. A fifth one left. He hired his former defensive coordinator at Notre Dame, Rick Minter, to run the defense in Columbia. He also added highly-regarded recruiting coordinator Rick Stockstill, a longtime Clemson assistant. And for anybody who still didn't get the message, Holtz stripped offensive coordinator duties from his own son, Skip, demoting him to quarterback's coach while taking play-calling duties over himself.

He appointed a 15-player unity council that votes on disciplinary issues and other team-related matters. He loosened his rules, including one that that disallowed players from having long hair. He brought in 15 former players -- including Deuce Staley and John Abraham -- to talk about playing at South Carolina. And he spent more time in the locker room, pulling up a chair and talking to players.

"At first we didn't know what to make of that," Strickland said. "But now it's comfortable. All around, he's more available to us now." All in the name of changing the culture. All in the name of returning South Carolina to its previous success."

 

[USC Gamecock]

Master Capper,

I take it you mean Tommy West, who is currently HC at Memphis. Interesting that you bring up his name b/c West actually coached at S. Carolina in 1991 and 1992 as co-defensive coordinator. He also coached at our arch rival Clemson for several years.

Rumor...and I stress rumor...is that S. Carolina will make a huge push for Spurrier if/when Lou leaves. I know it sounds far fetched, but who actually though Holtz would come to S. Carolina prior to 1998? Stranger things have happened. Word is that Spurrier & Lou are very tight, and that USC alum Hootie Johnson would throw in a membership at Augusta National (Holtz is a member) as part of the package. Spurrier may be rich, but all the money in the world won't get you into Augusta National.

Scott,

Yes, there have been many changes around Columbia this off season, not all of which are considered upgrades. I do however expect our defense to be much better under Minter, as I think he is a great hire. Coach Stock was the steal of the bunch though. He is a recruiting GOD in South Carolina, having landed the likes of Woody Dantzler, Roscoe Crosby & many others while at Clemson. It has to KILL Clemson fans that Stock came to S. Carolina, he was also a great hire.

One thing to keep in mind about Lou taking over the play calling from Skip....it happened once before in November of 2002 when we played Arkansas at home.......final score Arkansas 23 S. Carolina 0.

I know the majority of you do your research and study your plays, but for good or bad I've been a S. Carolina fan for all 34 years on this planet and all I can say after watching every game and reading every practice report is that I simply don't see us winning 8 games this year. Could I be wrong? Sure...but I've been a member of this board since 2000, and how many times have I felt good enough about a play to reccomend it to you guys...answer...very seldom.

I hope the Cocks prove me wrong. It's actually one bet I wouldn't mind losing...I just don't see it happening.

 

[USC Gamecock]

Damn...under 7 is now -60 at Olympic. Glad I played it early.

 

[USC Gamecock]

I hope some of you guys were able to win a little money on this play. In retrospect, the only games I missed were the Alabama game (their starting QB ended up being out), and the Mississippi game (they just upset us, but I noted it could go either way).

Anyway, you can always count on South Carolina to lose games they're not supposed to, which is what made the under so appealing. Hope some of you cashed the play.

GLTA

 

[USC Gamecock]

Damn, how prophetic did this statement (made August 24, 2004) end up being...

Rumor...and I stress rumor...is that S. Carolina will make a huge push for Spurrier if/when Lou leaves. I know it sounds far fetched, but who actually though Holtz would come to S. Carolina prior to 1998? Stranger things have happened. Word is that Spurrier & Lou are very tight, and that USC alum Hootie Johnson would throw in a membership at Augusta National (Holtz is a member) as part of the package. Spurrier may be rich, but all the money in the world won't get you into Augusta National

Kreskin's got nothing on me...