First full week of the year

[Blackman]

YTD 0-1 -1.10 units


Booked one early:

Houston -3....neutral site game in Houston and I feel the Cougars are on a different tier at this point than Rice. Briles took over this team last year, had the guts to start a Freshman QB, and took them to a bowl game (which they lost in an overtime shootout at Hawaii.)

Kolb showed so much pose last year, and ran the offense well, but most importantly limited mistakes (25 tds only 6 ints). A year older, a year smarter, and I think he'll run the offense very well again this year. He lost Middleton at WR (to the Cowboys) but Vincent Marshall returns with 60 catches and 7 tds under his belt from last year. Anthony Evans also returns, who rushed for over a grand last year -- pretty solid in this pass happy offense.

Rice ended last year hot -- but has a history of slow starts and have lost their season openers vs Houston the past two seasons. Houston will be a bowl team again this year, with their offense leading the way. This one could be a shootout, but in the end I don't think the option attack of Rice will be able to keep up with the passing attack of the Cougars.


Have a few more leans, need to hammer out more research this week before I book anything else.

 

[wareagle]

BOL B'Man!

 

[escarzamd]

Miss you in Baseball.......GL

 

[wareagle]

you miss me escar?

 

[sharky17]

Good write up Blackman.....Good Luck on this one and the college season.

(Agree with Doc......miss you around the baseball)

 

[Irish]

Blackman
I was looking at the Houston game as well, haven't made my decision yet. Good write up! Your boys (Eagles) picked up another former bird all-pro for peanuts($$). Wow, now they just hope Barber, Vincent and Taylor flop and they will all come back to the next.

GL
Irish

 

[ajoytoy]

gl on the play B!

like it


toy

 

[Blackman]

Notre Dame -4.....I look at this game this way: ND would not be playing this one if they didn't think they were going to stomp BYU. Last year the Irish opened with with a tough game vs Wash St, escaped with an ot win, but got smoked by Michigan the next weekend. Willingham is too smart to let that happen again, and wouldn't be traveling the team to Provo if he didn't think they will be able to walk out with a solid tune up for Michigan game.

ND's line is pretty solid, and has improved this year while BYU has not shown any signs of improvement in my mind. ND walks out of Provo with a win by at least a TD this week.

 

[Blackman]

Washington State -2.5 --- this team ended the year in the top ten in 2003 and now are not ranked. I realize they only return 7 starters, but obviously this program is becoming one of the stronger in the nation, and is starting to build a pretty rich tradition.

Here's a trend I like: New Mexico is 0-3 in the past two years vs the Pac Ten, with average margin of defeat slightly over three touchdowns. New Mexico is good against the New Mexico States and San Diego States but really seem to have trouble out of conference.

Since 2001, Washington State has only lost to these programs ---Notre Dame, USC, Washington, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Oregon, all of which were ranked at the time (except for ND) and two who were national champs that year (USC and OSU). Nothing to be ashamed of. This shows me that Wash St wins the games they are supposed to, and that the coaches will have them ready for the Lobos Friday night.

 

[Sun Tzu]

I sure hope the neautral site angle isnt important to you. Neither school draws anyway, and regardless of where they play the crowd is about 50-50 so the game is always pretty much neutral. Any "neutral fans" in this town will cheer for Rice. And while both campuses are close to the Stadium, Rice is much closer. As in down the street about a mile and a half.

 

[Blackman]

Sun -- neutral site really means nothing to me, just saw some posts saying this was a home game for Rice so I wanted to throw that in there.


Small teaser:

UVA -9.5
Mich - 6.5
Minn -4.5
Risk .5 unit to win 1 unit.

 

[pt1gard]

blackman, I took that HOU bet a while ago, but their D scares me--however, I loved their frosh QB LY, and off schemes are as dazzling as any in CFB ...

as far was WSU, their best player LB Derting got cast off today and is ready to knock some Lobos around, this guy is awesome ... wsu's holder quit yest. and they are paper thin on QBs, backup is redshirt frosh and they only have ONE! more qb in program

gl, gregg

 

[LonghornMM]

Houston is my biggest play of the weekend.

Other top plays:

NFL
Baltimore

NCAA
Wash St.
Cal
UCLA
Texas Tech
Hawaii

Good luck to everyone this weekend. Here's hoping no one has to pay their man!

 

[RexBudler]

Best of luck to you buddy

 

[Blackman]

Last one:

Michigan -13....when the line was 14.5 I was afraid of the backdoor cover, but at 13 I'm more comfortable about that. I think the line dropped because people saw Miami Ohio beat up on some local high school (pardon the insult to all Indiana State fans) and now think that the Miami Ohio offense will not miss a beat. Personally I feel the loss of Rothelisberger is huge -- they went from having an NFL caliber QB to a nice player in Josh Betts, who has some skill but is not experienced at all. Playing Michigan in his first real tough task.

Key matchup here is Michigan's big O line vs Miami's D line. Average weights give Michigan about a 50lb advantage, which is almost impossible to overcome. I expect Underwood to have a very good game and will find many large running lanes. Two other things, I think Gutierrez a lot, he was a big winner in high school, is no worse than Navarre and will end up being much better once he gains big game experience. I firmly believe that Michigans' WR corp is one of the best in the country, and they'll help me out bigtime this year.

Honestly I feel this line would have been fair if this game was played last year, but without Big Ben I think it makes a real difference. With the line under two tds I like Michigan in this spot.

 

[escarzamd]

With you on Wazoo and Cal......GL.....Doc

 

[Blackman]

Adding a coattail: EMU -6.5...tons of cappers I respect have great write ups for this game, I'm going to ride the train as well.


Good luck to all.

 

[theGibber1]

Best of luck this week good sir :drinky:

 

[lay the wood2]

Good Luck this weekend Blackman
I am on that Washington State game as well. i like the fact that they beat the teams they should.
I'm away this weekend down in Terp-land for a wedding with chalk and gamers, but we'll be watching the pigskins on saturday. You have a lean on that Rutgers game? Looks like RU getting a lot of respect and i dont know if its warranted this early in the season against MSU

 

[Blackman]

LTW: Gun to my head I'm taking MSU, especially based on the way this line has moved. With the line now under a TD I think this is asking a lot out of RU to get the cover. But with that being said I don't really think this game is worth a play.

I'm going to try to catch Mad Dog's picks this afternoon on the radio he's usually good for some info on a play or two.