Ivan might be even worse than the first 2!
- Thread starter SixFive
- Start date
Don't think fl has a whole lot to worry about living on the east cost of fl from st.augustine, ft.lauderdale, miami, dayton then new smyrna, this one is really down way south or storms that hit fl, now if i was on the coast of tx or la would be keeping my eye out for it on wen maybe thur of next week, but storms that low tend to get ripped apart if they go over the domican republic and just never seem to get themslef back together and that is a good thing for people in south fl or cent fl that it is so deep south another hit would be a ko punch for many, it is vary rare for storms to really hit fl the last 25 years i been in and out since 1980 get some strong nor-easters in the winter in dayton st.augustine jaxs area that go up the coast they can do some harsh shit just ask the people on the coast in ny and new england area.but had only i think 4 or 5 direct hits and andrew being the worst for me and anyone in s.fl but most of the time they turn and take out poor nc, the way the state of fl is shaped the storms heading towards east coast if they don't hit keys to miami then the turn more north and trash the outter banks nc a few will drill charleston sc. but this was a weird thing they come in years of 10 it seems like not much in the 80's 70's early had a few good ones that hit and 90's had a few 60's had quite a few but seem like every 25-30 years fl get hit with more then normal.
i would hate to live on west coast of fl when they get hit it is bad because they are so low just like la. if new. orleans gets hit with anything big it would punish the city depending on storm serge which would not take much in that area, same as the big bend part of fl on the west coast so damn low, tampa st.pete is the same way, the whole west coast is bad place to take a hit in fl on the gulf side. So this should stay south from most models one has it clipping keys but still way to early to tell and like i said if it hits the dr they tend to get torn up and just can't rebuild back up to a tight eyewall and move on the fizzle before they hit the warm waters of the gulf which is lucky for people from fl to yx who live on the gulf..l
never saw a tracking chart like that one, it is a nice little thing to break up the worries, where did you find that? are you getting drenched today? in ky, i spoke with my dad pittsburgh and fairmont wv area it has rained all day it is starting to stop now he said but was to have more on thur. nothing hard but steady rain for about 12 hours he said. just wondered if it went into kentucky any with all the rain.
i would hate to live on west coast of fl when they get hit it is bad because they are so low just like la. if new. orleans gets hit with anything big it would punish the city depending on storm serge which would not take much in that area, same as the big bend part of fl on the west coast so damn low, tampa st.pete is the same way, the whole west coast is bad place to take a hit in fl on the gulf side. So this should stay south from most models one has it clipping keys but still way to early to tell and like i said if it hits the dr they tend to get torn up and just can't rebuild back up to a tight eyewall and move on the fizzle before they hit the warm waters of the gulf which is lucky for people from fl to yx who live on the gulf..l
never saw a tracking chart like that one, it is a nice little thing to break up the worries, where did you find that? are you getting drenched today? in ky, i spoke with my dad pittsburgh and fairmont wv area it has rained all day it is starting to stop now he said but was to have more on thur. nothing hard but steady rain for about 12 hours he said. just wondered if it went into kentucky any with all the rain.
wouldn't say FLA is out of the woods yet- this thing is a monster and getting stronger- could be a category 5 in next 24 hours
fletch, got that off of a hunting forum I frequent. We have been dry here, it seems to have stayed east of us so far.
Steve please no jinx please, well cuba does not stop a storm like the Domini can and Haiti does just hope it stays south and the pressure system moves fat from out west to keep it from turning north a cat which andrew was at times took down the national hurricane center in miami last gust before it got some major damage was 214 mph gust then the hurricane center was down for a day, andrew was bordeline 4-5 had cat 5 gust as it cam through miamia south and homested where i was in countryside 24 miles inlad was trahed most of the houses due to at least 4 tornados they said after all was said and done, if this comes even at a 4 in around the big bend area of fl or la it will be bad if it hits around n.orleans it would flood the city at that cat of a hurricane, i know for the last about 10 years la has worked hard to dredge the swamps and flats to make them deeper and tried to build up a almost like dyke or natural around the cost with sand and rock but when your below sea level you in trouble if your hit nothing is going to prevent a major storm serge in that area same as big bend part of fl which you show the track going right at, it is very shallow waters and flats that will turn into one big wave after another. just hope it does not hit anywhere in the gulf but it almost has to and the water on that side is about 84 degrees and it will fead on that, if some dry air could get in between part of the storm that could help that is what happened last week took out a big punch but never in my years have i seen a hurricane creep so slow have seen them stall offshore a few hundread miles picking up steam then make a fast run at the coast or up the east coast towards nc, but never saw one slow down and move so slow, that is as bad in many ways as a fast moving 3 or 4 at 18-25 miles per hour in movement, on thing about andrew it was moving very very fast almost 30 miles per hour so it could of been worse then it was if it was slower and it still is the number 1 costing diester in the us. all you can do is hope for the best and now people head warnings after charlie before in fl even with andrew and it came in fast and caught hurricane center off guard with where it hit, it was a weird late moving storm that just took off, but people in fl and i was the same way said it will turn won't hit here, and it had been so long since one did people just shook them off, but with charlie people saw you don't have to be on the coast just ask polk county and they will tell you they got hit by both it crossed almost right over lake wales both times amost like a x that is werid also, 3 storms in 3 weeks has never happened i don't think anywhere in the us. well we will no lot more by fri afternoon. i have seen 3 different modles yours being the 3rd the other 2 had it way south of keys going towards either tx or la/miss early next week, that is the thing you just never know on little wobble here or there can make it turn in any direction. but it has a ko punch right now and the gulf like i said will just feed it more unless you can get some dry air in around the eyewall to break it up or close the eye, also if it stays a cat 5 not many have but they tend to have a double eyewall when they hit on shore and that would be just unreal.
Thanks dave great color i us www.accuweather.com never new the st.pete paper had that i use the sports section of the paper all the tim best fl sports coverage you can get comes from that paper for fl teams IMO. not a goo dlong term out look. for any gulf state and up into midwest or east after that, looks like more rain for everyone just depends how much it has with it , but fl is like a full sponge right now, the east has flooding and don't know what the midwest can take have not looked at the us maps except for fl and where i am playing games so really don't know how much rain mid west has got over the last few weeks, hell everuone except the west could have had their share of rain for the year this spring and now all this rain has brought lot of rain from mid west to the east and fl has got it in north fl anyway the whole college baseball season and lot over the summer st.johns county is far above total they get in a year from just march till now.
Fla. Urges New Evacuations As Ivan Nears
KEY WEST, Fla. (AP) - Tourists and residents were told Thursday to evacuate the Florida Keys because the powerful Hurricane Ivan could hit the island chain by Sunday. It had top sustained winds of 160 mph, making it a Category 5 storm, the most severe category of hurricanes.
National Hurricane Center forecasters predict that Ivan could hit the Florida Keys as a Category 4 hurricane, with winds of 131 to 155 mph, late Sunday or early Monday.
Monroe County emergency officials said the order was effective at 9 a.m. Thursday for island tourists. Mobile home residents were urged to begin evacuating at 6 p.m. Thursday, and other residents were told to leave Friday.
At 8 a.m., Ivan's center was about 455 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, or about 1,000 miles southeast of Miami. It has already been blamed for 15 deaths in Grenada, Barbados and other islands.
It is the third visitor evacuation ordered in the Keys in a month, the previous two coming for Hurricanes Charley and Frances.
The last time everyone on the Keys were told to evacuate was in 2001 for Hurricane Michelle, a Category 4 storm with top sustained winds of 135 mph that wound up missing a direct hit on the chain. Officials estimated that only 15 percent of Keys residents left.
But given the damage other parts of Florida received from Charley and Frances, ``I don't think that people will think twice (about evacuating) when we tell them it's a four heading right at us,'' said Monroe County emergency manager Irene Toner. ``I think they will be pretty responsive.''
Some businesses have seen a steep drop in the number of tourists since Charley and Frances. Hog's Breath Saloon in downtown Key West has had its worst six weeks of business since 1988, general manager Charlie Bauer said.
``It's been a financial disaster since Charley, but its hard to complain when the rest of the state is without air conditioning,'' he said.
Bauer said he normally rides out hurricanes in the Keys, but not this time: ``I won't even hang around for a Category 3.''
KEY WEST, Fla. (AP) - Tourists and residents were told Thursday to evacuate the Florida Keys because the powerful Hurricane Ivan could hit the island chain by Sunday. It had top sustained winds of 160 mph, making it a Category 5 storm, the most severe category of hurricanes.
National Hurricane Center forecasters predict that Ivan could hit the Florida Keys as a Category 4 hurricane, with winds of 131 to 155 mph, late Sunday or early Monday.
Monroe County emergency officials said the order was effective at 9 a.m. Thursday for island tourists. Mobile home residents were urged to begin evacuating at 6 p.m. Thursday, and other residents were told to leave Friday.
At 8 a.m., Ivan's center was about 455 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, or about 1,000 miles southeast of Miami. It has already been blamed for 15 deaths in Grenada, Barbados and other islands.
It is the third visitor evacuation ordered in the Keys in a month, the previous two coming for Hurricanes Charley and Frances.
The last time everyone on the Keys were told to evacuate was in 2001 for Hurricane Michelle, a Category 4 storm with top sustained winds of 135 mph that wound up missing a direct hit on the chain. Officials estimated that only 15 percent of Keys residents left.
But given the damage other parts of Florida received from Charley and Frances, ``I don't think that people will think twice (about evacuating) when we tell them it's a four heading right at us,'' said Monroe County emergency manager Irene Toner. ``I think they will be pretty responsive.''
Some businesses have seen a steep drop in the number of tourists since Charley and Frances. Hog's Breath Saloon in downtown Key West has had its worst six weeks of business since 1988, general manager Charlie Bauer said.
``It's been a financial disaster since Charley, but its hard to complain when the rest of the state is without air conditioning,'' he said.
Bauer said he normally rides out hurricanes in the Keys, but not this time: ``I won't even hang around for a Category 3.''
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