early grabs...and a few ?

[gardenweasel]

games bet...pretty much set in stone...


utah-11(-120)....

uconn-11(-120)...

n.d.+14(-120)...maybe moneyline...

troy st+11(-120)

stanford-3

bama-10

iowa st+24.5

games played...but i`m not sure whether i`ll keep....most lines,thankfully, have moved favorably...

nebraska-13

miami oh-2

n.w.-2

okie st-20

penn st+2(-120)....could turn into quite a middle...this one stinks to high heaven....everybody looking in the same direction....and that`s usually a disaster...

games i want to bet badly...but haven`t pulled the trigger...

oregon st+8

south carolina+8...


try and write `em up if possible... many more games than i usually fool with...that`s usually a bad sign....

g.l.

 

[taoist]

...already on Bama with ya.

...am leaning toward UConn, Penn St. and So. Car, but like you, am a little leary of Penn St's line movement. GL this week.

 

[ajoytoy]

gl on the plays GW!


toy

 

[mw]

I'd be careful with South Carolina this week. I played USC last week, and when the line dropped to three I hit it harder. Usually when Vandy gets hyped and the other team is focused you get a result like that. I wouldn't read that much into it. We will be able to make money on Vandy later in the season when they're getting more points against a less hungry team.

I know that the suspension of Thurman at MLB is hurting Georgia as the shuffling of linebackers has made the WLB a weak spot that Georgia Southern exploited on the fullback dive. This would seem to play into the hands of a USC team that is focusing on smashmouth football, has a bunch of good TB's, and ran the ball succesfully at Vandy. But as much as the USC players and staff say they are guarding against a repeat of last year, I'm not sure the conscious can overcome the subconscious.

Last year, after beating a ranked UVA team playing without QB Schaub 31-7, the Cocks got a big head (sorry, I couldn't resist) and got smoked by UGA by an identical score the following week. They all swear it won't be like last year, but I have to think they're very impressed with themselves again after an easy win over a worse-than-advertised opponent. And if you can believe it, we have an offensive linemen publicly criticizing Caoch Holtz's pattern of substituting backup QB Syvelle Newton for starting QB Pinkins.

On top of that USC has a kicker who is 1-5 in his career, including 1-3 on Saturday with misses from 32 and 37. Going back to the days of Coach Hartman, Rex Robinson, John Kasay, and perhaps the greatest college kicker of all-time Kevin Butler, one thing you have always been able to count on from UGA is a top-notch placekicker. Since Holtz arrived at USC, this series has produced totals of 33, 31, 23, 20, and 38 points, so placekicking will be at a premium.

Just a few things to think about. I haven't pulled the trigger on UGA yet, as there is no team I less like to root for, but it will probably happen by Saturday.

Good luck.

 

[gardenweasel]

thanks,guys.....i think i`m on some public plays....i made these decisions yesterday....before the lines really started moving...

not good....but,who knows...some strong consensus public plays hit last weekend....

curious to see what some others think....

g.l.
.

 

[mw]

Really like that Iowa State play

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

n.d.+14(-120)...maybe moneyline...

Can't see for the life of me why ND is such a popular pick. I know what the trends point to, but this is a coaching staff that had no answer to the 3-3-5 that BYU ran. Never mind that BYU ran that defense last year, never mind that ND faced them last year. The only thing that BYU did was blitz 6 and 7 straight up the middle and Quinn never got his feet set. I was pissed in the first half that Quinn was throwing 3-yard dump-offs on third and 10 until I saw the full-screen shots and there were no routes that were near the first down line as if they were clearing it out for the dump off. You get blitzed all first half and it takes 11 minutes into the second half to realize that you may want to run a screen pass. . . and looky there, it goes for a TD :clap: .

So, do you run the screen again? until they stop blitzing every down? No. They ran it once more in the game. On 3rd and 17. Against a deep zone. It got demolished.

BYU defenders dropped sooooo many interceptions and that concerns me because the Michigan defenders have great hands and are athletically superior to any defensive backfield that the Irish will play all year.

There has been no improvement in this team in the nine months since Syracuse and there was no sense of urgency Saturday Night. I think that they know they suck. And they know how to get blown out and that's what scares me most about this Saturday and the 14.

Ty's such a good representative of ND, but he's so positive despite of all the shit going on around him. You'd think he was from Crawford, TX :142lmao:

. . . But Michigan's offense is very rudimentary with a RB with no vision and limited power. A QB who, as expected, follows his primary target from the snap and takes a long time to check off.

The game screams pass because there could be a lot of turnovers or both coaches could turn ultra-conservative.

Love PSU, though, no matter how much it seems like a trap.

 

[gardenweasel]

bobby there are angles and trends that point to n.d...

michigan is 1-5 SU & 0-6 ats in their road opener. 2-7 ats in sept road games and 2-5 SU & 0-7 ats in non-conf away games...1-7 ats in games when they shut out the opp the previous season.

and i don`t think that michigan was as overwhelming as that miami,oh score would indicate....they were 12 yards away from only being up one score with 9 minutes left in the 4th qtr when they took an interception 88 yards for a score.....miami oh had 7 turnovers...

the defense is solid..and then some......but i expect notre dame`s defense to give a freshman starting his first division 1 road game problems.....

michigan`s running game wasn`t exactly dominant vs miami oh....and ryan grant will play this week for notre dame....

i think 14 is worth a shot.....i also think last week`s results give this value....i expect a scrum....a tough defensive ballgame.....

maybe nd is that bad.....considering the history,lack of qb experience and the venue,i`ll take 14 and hope for the best...

it`s just one wager...

g.l.

 

[gardenweasel]

may have to buy back miami,oh-2.......just found out that tom narduzzi,the new defensive coordinator for cincy was miami,oh`s def. coordinator previously....actually last year...


i keep thinking back to buffalo grabbing lawyer milloy right before their opening game with new england last year....and drilling the pats......

narduzzi has to know that miami,oh defensive personnel pretty well....i may even throw a couple ducats extra on cincy...i see +3`s out there...

just a heads up....i hate the buy back because i believe that miami,oh`s program is much more solid than cincy`s....cincy ,imo,defenitely needed the coaching change..

just a heads up...

09/10/04....took cincy +4....am leaving all bets (other than this one change) as they stand...i did middle a piece othe penn st bet..(.p.st+1.5/b.c.+3
)..left a little extra on pennst+1.5....small...this one smells to high heaven..

and i pulled the trigger on oregon st+8 and south cakalacky+8.......hope i don`t regret it.....g.l.

09/11/04....3:50...off to a rocky start...also adding syracuse for a decent sized play....some solid cappers here seem to like it alot...

g.l.

 

[c20916]

Cincy's offense just looked so inept last week. Sure you can contribute part of that to the OSU D, but Giudauli just didn't seem that sharp, he was throwing behind and over his receivers. I really thought Cincy had a chance against OSU and thier D kept them in the game, till they were wore out. I am going to give the Cincy O another chance on this one and back them against Miami Ohio

 

[Blackman]

Best of luck -- man you got some nice lines early, really looks like doing your research early paid off!

 

[Irish]

GW
Nice write-up and solid plays. I'm riding shotgun on a lot of them! you banked a ton of good early lines. Hope they cash this weekend!

GL
Irish

 

[AR182]

gw,

i'm with you on a few plays.

last week mich. had only one scoring drive more than 20 yards & they have a freshman qb starting away for the first time.


good luck.

 

[gardenweasel]

despite playing a ridiculously large card(won`t happen again),i skulked out of week 2 in the black....should have stuck with my top tier plays like i did last week....oh well....not complaining...

..thanks for help from some cappers in the forum...

w`s...utah...n.d...n.d. moneyline(very nice+200).....troy...stanford(34-10 inthe 4th)bama....iowa st...south carolina...cincinnati....syracuse...

loser`s....uconn and penn st(huge public plays...i should have known better)....nebraska(what was i thinking....sun tzu called this one)...northwestern(o.k. with this one...was waiting for az st to show some heart..they did today).......okie st(backdoored late in the 4th).....oregon st(i liked this one...i`m o.k. with losing here....zaransky is a dinwiddie clone)....

10-6 with a moneyline winner....thanks to johnny b for convincing me to take ucla(unposted)......and to ari82 for planting the syracuse play in my thick skull...

..i hope everyone came out on the plus side.....

g.l. to us all on sunday...

 

[gman2]

nice job weasel. youre off to a nice start this season. keep up the good work man.

g