nfl grabs....week 2

[gardenweasel]

i really like this card...it`s a little scary....may be "trap" weekend...

ist tier...

indy+3(-130).....love `em coming off a loss...tennessee banged up...a bad match-up for the titans...



oakland -3(-120)...i was impressed with the comeback vs pitts....gannon looks like he still has something...i expect sapp and washington to stuff the run and make bledsoe beat `em...and i`ve always thought bledsoe was a total stiff....really love this one...go norv....

2nd tier..

cincy-3(-140..ouch)...what can i say about the dolphins?...they will have a rough time stopping cincy`s offense....they will probably have to score some points here....it won`t be easy.....i don`t see marvin lewis and cincy starting 0-2....dolphins are in disarray....need the "d' tp step up bigtime here...



jags+3....again,not sure that denver is as good as they looked vs that porous k.c. defense...and imo,they have defensive issues of their own....fred taylor has a big day....taking the better defense..at home..

jets-3...over 43(-140...ouch again..)...just love pennington....what a touch passer....martin is,well,martin..and that`s awfully good.......i think this will be a shoot-out....excellent recivers...mccariens is a great addition...high scoring......like pennington to do enough to get the "w" vs a sketchy defense...... have always liked the jets on the road...mostly as dogs...still,i`ll take the shot...


atlanta-2(-120)....i`m not sold on st louis...i think they are a mediocre club.....with a lousy coach.....is atlanta that much better?....good question...

i decided before the year started that i would fade the rams on the road if the numbers are favorable...

-2 on home turf vs an overrated foe...i`ll take the shot...

granted i bought up or down quite a few numbers....but,these lines are skewed....imo....

and that scares me....could turn into a disaster....

i`ll wait to hear from some of the other cappers to see if i`m riding to many "obvious" plays.....maybe i`ll buy back a few if the consensus gets ridiculous...

kinda looking at tampa+3 and the brownies+4.....not sure yet...

the browns line might go up a bit...might be smart to wait.....have always loved the browns as a road dog....

g.l.

 

[chuckdman]

Indy looks good! Offense is working and will continue to work.
Oakland also looks really good! Buffalo is a sloppy team with not much of anything! Buffalo will be a bottom dwealer all season long. Oakland line surly will increase as money keeps flowing on Oaktown. Oaklands defense is still something to be concerned about but they way I see it, they can outscore Buffalo in a heart beat. I agree with the SAP/Washington statement. They should be able to stop the run vs Buffalo. Buffalo O-Line is crap. Should not see buffalo bust any big runs.. even agaisnst the worst run-defense last year! Oakland has improved on their run-stop abiliities, the just will need some time to adjust.. and what a good time when they host the Bills at in Oaktown!

Dont like the Jags and Atlanta. Dont know what I am missing but they are nothing special either. ATL has vick.. and Jags have a running game.. Both teams are two teams I dont put my money on!

GL on your plays.

 

[gardenweasel]

thanks chuck....that`s what i`m loooking for....

hopefully,there`ll be some divergence of opinion .....

trying to avoid getting tunnelvision on some plays...

you know it`s usually not good when everybody sees the same thing....

g.l.

 

[loophole]

just got back from charlotte and the monday night game, and am pretty beat, but 'll play devil's advocate for a few lines.

notice that indy's moved to +1; if they go to a road fav i wouldn't touch them.

see the raiders are now -3-. don't know about the raiders, never thought too much of norv turner as a coach. i do think the bills are a good team, and dangereous coming off the openng day loss.


like the second tier plays better. fading the dolphins on the road seems sound, and am not really put off by the current -4- line.

really like the jags as a defensive home dog catching a fg.

jets look good, but i think i like the over more. chargers offense looks like it has benefited from the qb competition, even if they did get the break of the bounces sunday.

sure nothing wrong with fading the rams on the road and off the rug.

right now what appeals to me the most is fading last night's opponents. in my mind no way the packers ought to be giving 9 to their central div rival bears coming off the short week. likewise, panthers offense without smith is going to be road kill in kc with little time to adapt.



that's it for tonight. g/l with the plays.

 

[pt1gard]

like your card, GW

took atl already in future -1; also cincy -1 in future; think Indy has better team; and thanx for pointing out that SD over, makes sense ... Chad might be most underrated QB in show .. be careful on Tampa there OFF loox gawd awful

gl gregg

 

[gman2]

weasel:

figured id give your thread a bump with the suggs info. media reports have him being cleared to practice on wednesday and his status still up in the air for sunday. i think browns are just forcing dallas to prepare for the possibility that green might start. but i dont think its gonna happen. suggs -- from everything ive heard locally -- is just about 100% and should see the majority of the reps. ill keep you posted as the week progresses. but i would count on a healthy suggs for sunday.

 

[Hooks]

Of all the look aheads this week coming up, I have to think that T.B. and H.C. John Gruden may be thinking about having to travel to Oakland to play the Raiders.
Likewise, Oakland, Laying 3 1/2 to Buffalo may be awaiting the arrival of their ex - H.C. Gruden in the showcase SNF game on ESPN.

Both T.B. and Oakland could not RUN the ball last week.
Although Buffalo couldn't RUN either.
Seattle did run effectively last week.
Seattle ave. 5.8 YPP last week.
T.B. ave. 3.0 YPP last week.

Buffalo ave. 3.8 YPP last week and Oakland ave. 5.8 YPP last week.
Still more work to be done on these games.

 

[ajoytoy]

gl on the plays GW


toy

 

[caught up]

ffirst off, i usually find myself in agreement more often than not with your picks--though this week on opposite sides it seems---perhaps dues to the earliness of season and lack of feel for temas; perhaps. for no good reason--other than being a fan of the personnel that TENN has, both on DEF with rolle, haynesworth, calmus, bulluck, as well as OFF in chr. brown (DTD), mcnair and mason i most admittedly think better of this team than perhaps desrve. that said, even in giving all due respect to IND and their potent OFF, which looked at one point--to be able to run-at-will VS my hoemtown NE, still found a way to lose. now i know dungy has improved the "D" and i liked doss alot--and think they suffer in missing him--the sticking point for taking TENN is--do i see INDY starting 0-2? the sticking point for backing colts--is that TENN is notoriously a much better HOME team. the win over MIA didnt impress much--as it looked as 'phins squandered their chances when nearing scoring oppurtunities. when its all said and done--following my as best bias gut feeling as i can come up with--even going against my instinct to never back a fisher led (low scoring) squad, i still think TENN wins--but too, could easily see them doing so by one point. more so--i think TENN covers by a TD+, as i'm sure they're as dialed in as much as the colts are--for such a pivotal AFC matchup as this. my two cents there.

as for ATL--i was touting jets and atl as possible SB matchup--that is until i saw the struggles vick endured throughout preseason in picking up off scheme. i REALLY dont like SF AT ALL. st louis on the other hand--has martz at the helm. all said and done, long story short--think RAMs explode against depleted ATL def--even with envigorated mora spear-heading it--specially 'gainst deangelo hall-less secondary. rams makeup for points they left on field against ARZ.

i myself, wouldnt put my money on the jags--but looking at number for DEN doenst have me chompin at the bit either. i think the den def is the weakness-though further too, think the JAX OFF is theirs (weakness)--i figured leftwich would propel himself to the next tier--though is still early, and has plenty time to prove--though vs BUF didnt show what thought should be there. shannahan always fields a solid group--even if plummer does his best give it away (even left handed now at times)--despite their DEF struggles against KC--they still won,--albeit--as you note, against porous KC "D". i see this as a den W, 20-10 affair--going against JAG home momentum.

..oh, and i REALLY do like the jets--as solid as a team thats out there IMHO. probably cuz such a fan of pennington--as team looks to have taken on workman like personalities of their leaders pennington and herm.

GL2U

 

[ELVIS]

i don't see where den struggled on d with kc. plummer left one at the doorstep = 7pts. and the fumble by griffith at the one =7pts. i think kc was lucky not to get beat by 20.jmo

jax is much better at home, but this is a late game and i feel den will be fine. fred could make it interseting.

 

[gardenweasel]

had a good day....but i feel like shit....

upper tier plays...hit a top tier play on indy...get a brutal push with oakland and a 4th down conversion(4th and 18 for buffalo from their own 30 to the oakland 5)....1-0-1..

f-u oakland...never again..

middle tier plays....hit with the jets...jets over....atlanta....and jaguars....added a play on the ravens in an add on thread...

lower tier... lost a heart breaker on a lower tier play on a cowboy safety with 13 seconds left... and lost the other lower tier play by a point with tampa...

upper tier...1-0-1

medium plays..5-0

lower tier...an ugly 0-2.....with extenuating circumstances in the push and one of the losses...lol...

6-2 with cincy -3 pending...i`ll take it...it should have been much better...

hope everyone did well

 

[AR182]

gw,

very nice day.

i think the cin.-3 is a nice line.definitely not telling you what to do but you may find some 7's out there & go for a middle.

keep up the good work & continued success.