*********************************
2004 NFL SEASON TO DATE
WINS 13
LOSSES 10
PUSH 1
WIN PCT. 56.5
SIDES: 7--5--1
TOTALS: 4--3
TEASERS: 0-1
HALFTIMES: 2--2
**********************************
LAST WEEK:
JACKSONVILLE +3 -- WON
BALTIMORE -3 -- LOST
TENNESSEE/MIAMI OVER 38 -- LOST
TEASE NOR +8.5 with SFO +10 -- LOST
SAN FRANCISCO +4 -- WON
NY JETS -4.5 -- WON
ARIZONA/ST LOUIS UNDER 45 -- WON
TAMPA BAY/WASHINGTON UNDER 39 -- WON
DALLAS/MINNESOTA OVER 44 -- WON
CAROLINA -3 -- LOST
HALFTIMES: 2-2
____________________________
WEEK 2 PLAYS: See SD.NYJ game for one of the most intereting angles of the week.
ST LOUIS +1 (FIRST HALF)
Comments: These two teams are pretty close in talent, although both struggled last week versus soft competition. In a game that could break either way, I think the team getting points in the first half clearly has value. Falcon's untested defense should have a much tougher time this week containing the Rams, who sleepwalked to a non-cover win last week. Rams have dominated the recent series between these teams, and going into favorable conditions (indoors, on turf) this plays to the Rams' strengths. Solid first half play.
HOUSTON +3
HOUSTON +1.5 (FIRST HALF)
Comments: Two solid plays here based on expectations the Texans will bounce back after a disappointing home loss. Detroit got what many handicappers refer to as a "false" win last week. Had it not been for a 92-yard block kick and return, they likley would have lost. The Lions were outgained by the weak Bears last week, and -- more important -- they rushed for just 2.8 YPC. I love betting against favorites who can't run the ball, and that's what we have here in this matchiup. Motivation could also favor the Texans, as this is a game they need in order to avoid an 0-2 start. Lions supposedly have a high-powered offense, but I saw no signs of that last week as Detroit picked up on 13 first downs. This should be a close game, and the road team clearly could pull off an upset. Lions also have WR injury, which is a concern. Great value here with a barking dog, getting points in both the 1H and game.
JACKSONVILLE +3
JAX/DEN UNDER 40
Comments: The Jaguars defense is for real -- as this unit is the only reason the Jags were even in the game last week on road at Buffalo. Returning home off a win, I think the Jags will be sky high for this matchup, and they get to face the perfect opponent -- a team that often struggles on the road after big divisional home wins. I'm not convinced the Broncos are anywhere as good as they looked last week versus an abysmal KC defense, and they face a much tougher task this week against JAX in its home opener. Major concern is JAX offense, which looked completely clueless until the last 5 minutes of last week's game. QB Leftwich played horribly, but I have to believe he is capable of a better performance this week, especially with a talented supporting cast. Look for Jags to go with a similar game plan this week which worked the week before -- to win with defense and low risk ball control offense. Add the possibility that Denver could come in flat, and this has all the makings of a close, low scoring game. The home dog and the UNDER look like solid bets.
NOTE: See SAN DIEGO write-up for a fabulous angle that supports a play on the Jaguars.
WASHINGTON -3
Comments: I rarely play road favorites, but I see the Giants as a team getting ready to fall apart. This team is veryt much like the 2003 Raiders, a team that resented their head coach and quit by mid-season. Tom Coughlin was a HORRIBLE hire by the Giants, and this week's fining of two top players won't help his reputation with players. I've observed Coughlin's style in practice films (Direct TV) and he has an abrasive insulting style that is going to bring out the worst in his players. This style did not work in the last three years in JAX, and it's going to fail in NY. Washington isn't normally a strong enough team to lay a FG on the road, but with some added internal dissent with the Giants this week, coupled with a horrible defensive backfiled and suspect OL, I think the Redskins are the play this week.
SEATTLE -2.5
Comments: I wasn't convinced of the Seahawks improvment until I saw them destroy the Saints last week. Biggest improvement was with the defense, which confused and shut down a Saints offense loaded with weapons. Bucs have much less offensively, and are totally mismatched as a running offense to the Seattle rushing attack. Bucs did not score an offensive TD last week, and that came against a mediocre Redskins defense. They face a tougher task this week, against a better defense and clearly a more soncistent offense that can move the ball. Half of Tampa's starts are new this year and it's becoming very clear this is a rebuilding year for this franchise. This is a very generous number, which shold probably be -3.5 or even -4. Always tough to play a team on the road two straight week,s but this comes at the start of the season versus a team that has shown NOTHING offensively to date. Take Seattle.
SAN DIEGO +3.5
Comments: I have no idea why everyone is so high on the Jets this week. NY did look play well last week versus Cincy, but that was versus a team with a history of defensive ineptitude and a QB starting his first game. Cincy was actually in a position to tie the game late and was driving, so I have no idea why the Jets inspire so much confidence. San Diego may be a better team than people realize, and certainly have a strong running game -- always a staple of a contender. Chargers looked good in pre-season, and won a road opener last week -- which only adds to the mystery why this team is getting over a FG in the road opener. There's also a HUGE trend that supports a play in underdog Chargers. This trend comes from the 2004 KILLER SPORTS NFL ANNUAL. I want to make sure credit if given, since this is not my discovery. The trend suggests the following: TAKE ANY HOME UNDERDOG OF 7 POINTS OR LESS, WITH A NON-LOSING SU RECORD, and a WINING RECORD OVERALL, COMING OFF A WIN AS AN AWAY DOG LAST WEEK. This angle is based on solid assumptions where the home dog has proven it can win a game (wining on the road in the NFL is always tough), yet still gets no respect from the linesmakers. THIS ANGLE IS A STAGGERING 26-0 (Yes, 26 wins and no losses) since 1990. The teams cover by an average of 11.6 points per game. FOR COMPLETE RESULTS SEE P-79 of the annual. I have no idea how anyone could bet the Jets in this situation. Add the fact the Jets defense might be exploited up the middle by a solid running attack, and we have the makings of a great live dog here. PLAY SAN DIEGO +3.5
NOTE: This angle also applies to the Jaguars, this week.
INDIANAPOLIS +1
Comments: The public is all over the Colts this week, and with good reason. Main reason I like the Colts is seeing the INdy front five completely manhandle the Pats along the line last week, rushing for 5 yards per carry. Colts ran the ball at will, and should have won the game except for two turnovers on the goal line. COlts have more motivation for this game, had two days ectra to prepare, come in as a dog, and play a team with some injury concerns. If Indy could run the ball so well versus Pats last week, I expect they will do even better versus a Titans DL which is nowhere as good as its been in previous seasons. I also don't see Titans running the ball as well, this week. More moticated, healthier team, getting a point, with more weapons. Indy is the play.
MIAMI/CINCINNATI UNDER 39.5
Comments: Miami's offensive troubles are well-known. It's hard to imagine an offensive shootout here. Bengals had to throw more than they wanted last week. I don't expect that to be the case this week, in a game that should be close for at least three quarters. I think Benglas realize they can grind out a win here with a ball control offense, preventing turnovers, against the perfect oppoent (offensively) for the defense to gain some confidence. This game should go UNDER.
-- Nolan Dalla
2004 NFL SEASON TO DATE
WINS 13
LOSSES 10
PUSH 1
WIN PCT. 56.5
SIDES: 7--5--1
TOTALS: 4--3
TEASERS: 0-1
HALFTIMES: 2--2
**********************************
LAST WEEK:
JACKSONVILLE +3 -- WON
BALTIMORE -3 -- LOST
TENNESSEE/MIAMI OVER 38 -- LOST
TEASE NOR +8.5 with SFO +10 -- LOST
SAN FRANCISCO +4 -- WON
NY JETS -4.5 -- WON
ARIZONA/ST LOUIS UNDER 45 -- WON
TAMPA BAY/WASHINGTON UNDER 39 -- WON
DALLAS/MINNESOTA OVER 44 -- WON
CAROLINA -3 -- LOST
HALFTIMES: 2-2
____________________________
WEEK 2 PLAYS: See SD.NYJ game for one of the most intereting angles of the week.
ST LOUIS +1 (FIRST HALF)
Comments: These two teams are pretty close in talent, although both struggled last week versus soft competition. In a game that could break either way, I think the team getting points in the first half clearly has value. Falcon's untested defense should have a much tougher time this week containing the Rams, who sleepwalked to a non-cover win last week. Rams have dominated the recent series between these teams, and going into favorable conditions (indoors, on turf) this plays to the Rams' strengths. Solid first half play.
HOUSTON +3
HOUSTON +1.5 (FIRST HALF)
Comments: Two solid plays here based on expectations the Texans will bounce back after a disappointing home loss. Detroit got what many handicappers refer to as a "false" win last week. Had it not been for a 92-yard block kick and return, they likley would have lost. The Lions were outgained by the weak Bears last week, and -- more important -- they rushed for just 2.8 YPC. I love betting against favorites who can't run the ball, and that's what we have here in this matchiup. Motivation could also favor the Texans, as this is a game they need in order to avoid an 0-2 start. Lions supposedly have a high-powered offense, but I saw no signs of that last week as Detroit picked up on 13 first downs. This should be a close game, and the road team clearly could pull off an upset. Lions also have WR injury, which is a concern. Great value here with a barking dog, getting points in both the 1H and game.
JACKSONVILLE +3
JAX/DEN UNDER 40
Comments: The Jaguars defense is for real -- as this unit is the only reason the Jags were even in the game last week on road at Buffalo. Returning home off a win, I think the Jags will be sky high for this matchup, and they get to face the perfect opponent -- a team that often struggles on the road after big divisional home wins. I'm not convinced the Broncos are anywhere as good as they looked last week versus an abysmal KC defense, and they face a much tougher task this week against JAX in its home opener. Major concern is JAX offense, which looked completely clueless until the last 5 minutes of last week's game. QB Leftwich played horribly, but I have to believe he is capable of a better performance this week, especially with a talented supporting cast. Look for Jags to go with a similar game plan this week which worked the week before -- to win with defense and low risk ball control offense. Add the possibility that Denver could come in flat, and this has all the makings of a close, low scoring game. The home dog and the UNDER look like solid bets.
NOTE: See SAN DIEGO write-up for a fabulous angle that supports a play on the Jaguars.
WASHINGTON -3
Comments: I rarely play road favorites, but I see the Giants as a team getting ready to fall apart. This team is veryt much like the 2003 Raiders, a team that resented their head coach and quit by mid-season. Tom Coughlin was a HORRIBLE hire by the Giants, and this week's fining of two top players won't help his reputation with players. I've observed Coughlin's style in practice films (Direct TV) and he has an abrasive insulting style that is going to bring out the worst in his players. This style did not work in the last three years in JAX, and it's going to fail in NY. Washington isn't normally a strong enough team to lay a FG on the road, but with some added internal dissent with the Giants this week, coupled with a horrible defensive backfiled and suspect OL, I think the Redskins are the play this week.
SEATTLE -2.5
Comments: I wasn't convinced of the Seahawks improvment until I saw them destroy the Saints last week. Biggest improvement was with the defense, which confused and shut down a Saints offense loaded with weapons. Bucs have much less offensively, and are totally mismatched as a running offense to the Seattle rushing attack. Bucs did not score an offensive TD last week, and that came against a mediocre Redskins defense. They face a tougher task this week, against a better defense and clearly a more soncistent offense that can move the ball. Half of Tampa's starts are new this year and it's becoming very clear this is a rebuilding year for this franchise. This is a very generous number, which shold probably be -3.5 or even -4. Always tough to play a team on the road two straight week,s but this comes at the start of the season versus a team that has shown NOTHING offensively to date. Take Seattle.
SAN DIEGO +3.5
Comments: I have no idea why everyone is so high on the Jets this week. NY did look play well last week versus Cincy, but that was versus a team with a history of defensive ineptitude and a QB starting his first game. Cincy was actually in a position to tie the game late and was driving, so I have no idea why the Jets inspire so much confidence. San Diego may be a better team than people realize, and certainly have a strong running game -- always a staple of a contender. Chargers looked good in pre-season, and won a road opener last week -- which only adds to the mystery why this team is getting over a FG in the road opener. There's also a HUGE trend that supports a play in underdog Chargers. This trend comes from the 2004 KILLER SPORTS NFL ANNUAL. I want to make sure credit if given, since this is not my discovery. The trend suggests the following: TAKE ANY HOME UNDERDOG OF 7 POINTS OR LESS, WITH A NON-LOSING SU RECORD, and a WINING RECORD OVERALL, COMING OFF A WIN AS AN AWAY DOG LAST WEEK. This angle is based on solid assumptions where the home dog has proven it can win a game (wining on the road in the NFL is always tough), yet still gets no respect from the linesmakers. THIS ANGLE IS A STAGGERING 26-0 (Yes, 26 wins and no losses) since 1990. The teams cover by an average of 11.6 points per game. FOR COMPLETE RESULTS SEE P-79 of the annual. I have no idea how anyone could bet the Jets in this situation. Add the fact the Jets defense might be exploited up the middle by a solid running attack, and we have the makings of a great live dog here. PLAY SAN DIEGO +3.5
NOTE: This angle also applies to the Jaguars, this week.
INDIANAPOLIS +1
Comments: The public is all over the Colts this week, and with good reason. Main reason I like the Colts is seeing the INdy front five completely manhandle the Pats along the line last week, rushing for 5 yards per carry. Colts ran the ball at will, and should have won the game except for two turnovers on the goal line. COlts have more motivation for this game, had two days ectra to prepare, come in as a dog, and play a team with some injury concerns. If Indy could run the ball so well versus Pats last week, I expect they will do even better versus a Titans DL which is nowhere as good as its been in previous seasons. I also don't see Titans running the ball as well, this week. More moticated, healthier team, getting a point, with more weapons. Indy is the play.
MIAMI/CINCINNATI UNDER 39.5
Comments: Miami's offensive troubles are well-known. It's hard to imagine an offensive shootout here. Bengals had to throw more than they wanted last week. I don't expect that to be the case this week, in a game that should be close for at least three quarters. I think Benglas realize they can grind out a win here with a ball control offense, preventing turnovers, against the perfect oppoent (offensively) for the defense to gain some confidence. This game should go UNDER.
-- Nolan Dalla
