Week 2.

[MrChristo]

5-3 (+1.47) [didn't count the Miami under last week because of the change]

I'm aiming at winning 3 units a week, so a little disappointed with Wk.1...although a stupid late play on Carolina was pretty much to blame for that! :cursin:

Right........

Jax/Denver UNDER 40

For some reason the odds-makers are being very slow catching on to Jax. They have av. only 28.3 ppg (total) in their last 8 game. (1-9 under...0-9-1 under this no.)
[Not to mention 4 pre-season games that all went under @ 22 ppg total!!]
Griffen looked sensational last week...but it WAS against KC! He will have a MUCH tougher time running the ball on Jax, who were no. 1 last year for ypc, and held Buff to 2.6 ypc last week.
Del Rio knows his team's strength in it's D...expect a strong showing first home game.

Cinci -4 (1.83)

League: 4-35 SU (11-28 ats..Av. loss 11.7) away 7- dog, off 10+ SU loss as home 7- dog. [Mia] (3-15 ats since 2000)
1-20 SU (6-15..av. loss 10.7) if total <40.
2-11 ats if their last total was also <40

Simply don't think Miami can keep up in this game. Palmer and Johnson are a pretty potent combination for the Bengals...and as bad as their D is, I can't see Miami putting enough points on the board to keep this one close.

Detroit -3 (1.92)

Houston's lousy road record continued in pre-season, losing by 49 points in 2 away games. They did win 2 games on the road last season, but besides that, the colsest they got was within 7 @ Cinci.
Although the loss of Rogers will hurt, Det still shold have enough fire-power to get over the line.

Washington -3 (2.00)

League: 3-12 (Av. loss 9.4) (0-7 since 2000) home 3- dog off 14+ SU loss as away 7+ dog. [NYG]

NYG gave up 119 yards on the ground to Westbrook @ 7 ypc...Portis ran for 148 v. Tampa. Can see him having another big day here. Brunnell was solid, and if Washington can control the ball, they should be able to win this game.
Wash gave up only 30 rushing yards @ 2.0 ypc, so they should be able to contain Barber, and make Warner try to beat them through the air...Which could get messy with the NYG O line giving up 5 sacks last week.

Jets -3 (1.87)

Have to like the look of the Jets this season. Pennington and a healthy Martin should be able to do plenty of damage to SD, who (although getting the win) allowed Davis over 4ypc and Carr 229 yards through the air.
Tomlinson is always a threat, but SD only hit 4 receivers last week, so I'm sure the Jets will concentrate on taking away the SD running game.

KC -6

League: 1-11 SU (3-9 ats..Av. loss 11.2) away 3+ dog off a Monday Night home ats loss! [Caro]
0-8 SU (1-7 ats..Av. loss 11.9) if 10+ ats loss.

League: 25-7 SU (18-12 ats..Av. win 8.7) home 3+ fav off 7+ ats loss as away 3- dog. [KC]

Panthers O line looked weak on Monday night...and Delhomme looked very shaky against the blitz. Expecting Cunningham to send pressure early and often.
Holmes should have a BIG day against a D that did not ever look like stopping Green on Monday.
Expecting KC to control the ground game...and hopefully stop Caro at least once!!
KC are 24-10-1 home in Sept last 35...Think they win by a TD or more.

Tenn -1

Really like this game! (Will probably double up later in the week depending on what the line does.)

League: 3-13 SU (Av. loss 8.8!!) away Sunday off any Thursday game! [Indi]

League: 22-8 SU (Av. win 9.6!!) home off 10+ SU win as away 7- fav, when total >44' [Tenn]
7-1 SU (Av. win 14.1!!!) if they go as 3- favs.

Indi won @ Tenn last year by 2 points...Tenn turned the ball over 4 times to Indi's ZERO!!
No way Indi run the ball like they did last week on a much tougher Tenn run D.
Tenn gained 4.9 yrc in the game last year...and their running game figures to be better this time, minus a horribly over-rated George in the back-field.
Tenn were NOT forced to punt once in the game last year.
Tenn secondary will be it's problem in this game, but provided they can get 1-2 stops, I can't see Tenn losing this one at home.
Tenn also 12-4 in the past 3 seasons when the line is -3 to +3.


Only other 2 games I'm looking at are GB -9 (GB 17-6 after a Monday game!...5-0 last 3 years)...and Dallas/Cleve under 39

Good Luck all

 

[LonghornMM]

I've been very impressed with your plays. I'm definitely going to hit these this weekend.

 

[Kdogg21]

great write ups Christo. keep up the great work and GL this weekend

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks guys...Appreciate the feedback.

Again, I'm not real happy with the amount of plays I'm going to end up with here...But I do really like them, so what's a guy to do, huh?

Cleveland @ Dallas UNDER 39

Dallas only rushed for 71 yards last week (admittedly they were playing catch-up). Cleveland were very good last year stopping the pass, their problems came v. the run...although holding Lewis to 57 yards last week appears they have done a lot of work on their run D.
Browny O will consist of a big chuck of Suggs/Green, leaving Garcia to only make big plays when he has to.
Like getting this one above 38.
A couple of trends:
Play UNDER in September if the fav is off an ATS loss. (120-189-1 UNDER...61%)
Dallas 1-9 UNDER as fav off an ats loss in September.


Pittsburgh @ Baltimore UNDER 36

League: 4-12 UNDER (av. score 33.3) home 7- fav off 14+ ats loss as away 7- fav. [Balt]
0-4 UNDER (av. score 25.0!) when the total <37

Balti really struggled to get anything going last week...Cleveland might well have been focused on stopping the run, but bad news for them is that they struggle to run on Pitts too. Steelers held Balti to 3.5 ypr and 13 points at home last year.
They held Oakland to 61 yards @ 2.7 ypc last week.
Steelers secondary is their problem, but I don't think Baltimore can take advantage.
Baltimore D always strong at home. They allowed just 123 points in 8 games last season....82 in 7 games if we take out Seattle laying 41 on them!!!
Weather might not be the best...A bit of rain forecast.
Like the under.


San Fran @ New Orleans UNDER 42

Dorsey starting for SF...I have to expect plenty of running to protect the rookie.
New Orleans looked awful last week on offense...Their only scoring drive started at the Seattle 47 after a 47 yard kick-off return!
Neither team has topped 20 since the first week of pre-season...And only then did San Fran get 17 in the last 1/4 v. some TERRIBLE pass D from Oakland.
Expecting a pretty conservative game.
San Fran: 1-5 under last 3 years as +3-+9.
New Orleans: 7-20 under in conf. in September.


Only one game to come now...Just waiting for maybe a better line

Good Luck all

 

[ajoytoy]

gl on all of em Mr. C!

think you'll get more than +3 units this weekend

 

[MrChristo]

Last game:

Seattle @ Tampa UNDER 37

Tampa's offense looked very ordinary last week...Galloway, Jurevicious and McCardell out, will make it hard for them to move the ball downfield.
Seattle held McAllister to 57 yards last week, so Tampa figure to have a tough time moving it on the ground also.
It's tough to take Seattle as a road fav...esp. second cross-country trip in a row...there's every chance that Seattle don't put many points on the board here either.
Tampa have allowed only 55 points in 5 games (inc. NFLX) this season.
Seattle 10-27-1 UNDER on the road in September
Tampa 2-8 UNDER last 3 seasons when line -3 - +3.

Definately NO MORE GAMES!!! :cursin:

 

[MrChristo]

Adding:

Arizona +8

Seems the world is on NE, yet the line is moving in.

How about Tenn, huh?
Miss a FG...Go for it on 4th 1 on the 1 and fail....Go for it on 4th and 2 with scores level and thrown an INT!!! :cursin:

Unbelievable stuff!!

 

[MrChristo]

10-10 (-1.92)

Horrible week...But everything that could have gone wrong did!!

Still shaking my head at the Titans.
Balt/Pits chugging along nicely until an explosion in the last. (Not to mention the 1 yard play and INT return for TD's!)
Washington have 7 TO's...Allow a fumble return for a TD....miss a FG and still only get beaten by 6!! wtf??

OK, so KC was clearly the wrong team, and the less said about NO/SF the better!!

Sure hope things turn around next week!

 

[Kdogg21]

i didn't take KC. i was going to, but it was one of those games everybody seemed to be on them, but the line stayed the same. tough day christo, but keep up the work. lets hit em hard on MNF.