plays for 9/17-9/18

AR182

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Nov 9, 2000
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17-14 +12.84*

2*missouri-23.5 (120)......

as we all know missouri (um) was humiliated on national tv last week vs. troy state.what i think happened was that um scored too easily in the 1st quarter vs. troy & lost their edge for the rest of the game.

because of that game i don't think the um coach (pinkel) will let his team look past ball st.his record here & at toledo is 12-3 ats when favored by 14 or more (12-1 ats when favored by 14-28 pts.). he is also 12-1 ats as a favorite or pick following a loss(4-0 ats when laying 20 or more), including 6-0 ats while at missouri.

ball st.is 0-29 su on the road & 0-2 at home vs. bcs teams, while averaging just 11 points per game in those 31 games.conf.road games.so far bsu has generated only 408 yds. in 2 games.bsu has given up an average of 46 points per game in it's last 8 non-conf.road games. um is 21-2 ats in it's last 23 games when their opponent is held to less than 15 points.

2*uab+25.......

under watson brown, uab is 15-8 ats as a dog during the past 5 years.

fsu is entering this game off of a draining loss that, imo will be difficult to overcome. their offense only gained 165 total yds. & committed 4 turnovers. their pass defense allowed 255 yds. to miami.fsu has clemson next week.

i'm not predicting uab to win this game. but with a quality qb(hackney),& a tough defense, which was built by the same def. coordinator who built troy's defense, i think uab can stay within the number.

2*marshall+20(120)....

i think um will use the same strategy vs ga. that they used vs.ohio st...short passing game & running the ball (they rushed for 150 yds.vs. osu).um defense is allowing 2.3 yds. per carry so far this year.

ga. lost their starting freshman runner,ware, for this game.

um is 3-0 ats as road dogs vs. the power teams since last year.

2*rice+3.5(125).........

hawaii struggled last year on the mainland last year going 2-4 su & 1-5 ats.uh is 5-16 ats in their last 21.this year they lost their entire def.line to graduation.

rice has a light, quick defense that matches up very well to uh's offense.they are 5-0 ats vs. uh over the last 5 years. under coach hatfield, rice is 17-4 ats as a home dog.

good luck.
 

AR182

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3*new mex. st.+11........

we all know about troy st.upsetting marshall & missouri in b2b games(they were outgained by 365 yards combined). we also know about nms getting crushed by arkansas & calif in their first two games.last year troy lost 6 of 8 road games su, & were shut out in 3 of those games.

true troy has a quality defense, but imo this line is about a 5-7 points too high & i think nms is worth a shot against a team who can be a little flat after those two upsets.also nms is 8-1 ats as a home dog in their last nine.

2*e.mich.+11.........

this is toledo's 3rd straight road game.all within 20 days.em has won 3 straight as a home dog with 2 as an outright upset & they stayed within 13 of bowling green.

toledo's defense has been non-existent this year & with em having last years leading rusher from the mac, i think em can stay within the number.

an angle supporting this play....

play against a road favorite of 3-10 points(line is now between 9-10 points) after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worsre.

last 5 years the ats record is 30-4====88%

2*nw-2.5.........

despite kansas having double digit wins over tulsa & toledo (both at home) & nw having lost both of their games, kansas, imo, is not better than nw.nw lost a tough game vs. tcu where they got beat in ot & as a result came out flat last week vs. asu.nw has outgained their opponents in both games.

kansas has dropped 4 straight on the road & is 4-31 su in lined road games since 1996.

i think nw controls the line of scrimmage & outrushes kan. by close to 2-1 & if they keep their turnovers to a minimum will win this game by at least 7.

2*nd-2.5(120)...............

nd is stronger on both sides of the ball & has the more experienced qb.

nd is 8-1 su/ats after their last 9 wins with mich.

2*houston-14(130)..............

army goes on the road for the first time this year. they are 6-31 ats in games they lose su vs.teams playing off b2b losses.

teams that went to a bowl game the previous year & open with b2b losses cover 64% of the time.

houston shut down rice's wishbone earlier this year, so they should have no trouble with army's.

good luck.
 

RAWW

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who ya like nc st or ohio st. i know ya like nc st. but who do you REALLY like $$$$$. line movin toward the pack. dunno
 

AR182

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thanks for the well wishes,guys.

adding......

2*under 52 syr/cin
2*fla.atl+4
2*under 45 miss/vandy
2*minn-2.5
2*neb-2.5
2*tcu+7
2*teaser az+18 & under 46.5

a few middles.......

3*ncst+4......osu+4
2*kan.st-30.....ullaf.+32
2*under 49......over45 tenn/fla.
2*nev-13.5.....buff.+18


good luck.
 

gardenweasel

el guapo
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Jan 10, 2002
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"the bunker"
lord...i`ve been looking at tonight`s fight so intently,that i didn`t see some of the line movement.....whew....some of these lines are flying around...

played a small parlay on rice and navy....

g.l.,bud...
 

AR182

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Nov 9, 2000
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gw,

i originally had ncst. pegged for this game for weeks.so when the line came out with osu as a 3 point favorite, i bet it up to 4.as the week was progressing i noticed that everybody was taking ncst.& noticed the line going in ncst's favor. since i didn't see anybody on osu, i started backing away from my liking ncst.i waited until it went to ncst.-2.5. i decided then that i couldn't chance it going back down, so i bought up to 4.

pretty similar to nev./buff. i grabbed nev.at 13.5 & again everybody kept taking nev, so i waited & took the other side.

i originally liked ullaf., but i thought about it & thought i must be nuts to take ullaf., so i took kan. st.

on the total, i originally took the under 49. but then with reports of the huricane coming to tenn,., the books kept dropping the line, so i went the other way.

last week i had a big bet on the steelers -3 & bought some back at oak+5. and the game ended on 3.

you have to be lucky with these.

good luck.
 

gardenweasel

el guapo
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Jan 10, 2002
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"the bunker"
looks like a major ass kicking day for you....i went light with the fight happening tonight...and i hit that along with a prop and az st...had az and a moneyline ...should have had that moneyline...hmmmm...

hope you considered that rice/navy parlay....

you continue to show why you are worthy of a look- see every week....

another fine job,bud....g.l. tomorrow...
 

AR182

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Nov 9, 2000
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gw,

thanks for the props.i don't play parlays, but am kicking myself about not playing navy.

glad that you had a profitable day.

the last fight that i bet on was the first ali/frazier fight.(lol)

i went 12-3 +13.18* for the day today.

season record is 29-17 +26.02

good luck.
 

gman2

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Nov 12, 2002
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damn. didnt see your thread this week. but congrats on a very nice saturday. cant say im surprised - your hard work regularly produces winners. again, props.
 

Clem D

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Very nice week. You bitch slapped the book.
My best wishes to you. I never meant any personal disrespect. I hope to meet you in person again. I was out of line.
LOVE
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