I have seen this before...and I screwed it up. I was so pissed that I played it wrong the first time something like this came up, that I vowed if I ever saw a week like this again I would not make the same mistakes. In many ways, this week mirrors very closely one particular week from 2003.
This week we have a lot of games with very large spreads. Last year, in Week 11 had a board that was even more extreme. Every game, all huge spreads. In fact, in Week 11 of last year, there was not a single game on the board with a spread of less than 3?. Eleven of the 16 games on the board had spreads of -5? or greater. Absolutely a great week to be a dog player. And in those big-spread games, the dogs came through big.
Week 11 - 2003
1pm
Houston @ Buffalo -7 (Houston wins outright, 12-10)
NY Giants @ Philadelphia -3? (Philly won 28-10)
Arizona @ Cleveland -5? (Cleveland won 44-6)
Kansas City -6 @ Cincinnati (Cinci pulls off the outright upset, 24-19)
St Louis -6 @ Chicago (Bears cover the spread losing 23-21)
Washington @ Carolina -6 ('Skins cover the spread, losing 20-17)
Jacksonville @ Tennessee -9? (Make that 3 dogs in a row that lost but covered....Tenn wins 10-3)
Baltimore @ Miami -5? (OK, make that four in a row. Ravens lose 9-6 in OT)
Atlanta @ New Orleans -8? (Yet ANOTHER dog cover, Saints win 23-20 in OT)
Those were the 1pm games...Favs went 2-7, covering only the 2 smallest spreads
4pm
NY Jets @ Indianapolis -6 (Indy wins 38-31...close, but a cover for the favs)
San Diego @ Denver -8 (Not close...Den wins 37-8)
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay -4 (Green Bay outright winner, 20-13)
Detroit @ Seattle -10? (Big win for Sea, 35-14)
Minnesota -4? @ Oakland (Oak wins outright, 28-18)
Sunday Night
Dallas @ New England -4 (NE wins 12-0)
Monday Night
Pittsburgh @ San Fran -4 (SF wins 30-14)
Overall the dogs went 9-7. No big deal, maybe. But:
Favs covered:
...spreads of -3?, -5?, -6, -8, -10?, -4 and -4.
Dogs covered:
...spreads of -7, -6, -6, -6, -9?, -5?, -8?, -4 and -4?.
Most of the covers by the favs were on smaller spreads. With spreads of -6 or more, the majority went to the dogs. In this league, 6+ points is usually just too much to lay, no matter the matchup.
This week we do have a few (3 or 4) games with spreads of <3. But on the other side of the coin, we've got 3 games in double digits, and another 5 games at -6 or higher.
If favorites outcover dogs in those 8 large-spread games I will be REALLY shocked. This should be a good opportunity to bet the large dogs across the board and make money without even really thinking. I'd bet at least five, and probably six of these eight 6+ point dogs get the cover.
This week we have a lot of games with very large spreads. Last year, in Week 11 had a board that was even more extreme. Every game, all huge spreads. In fact, in Week 11 of last year, there was not a single game on the board with a spread of less than 3?. Eleven of the 16 games on the board had spreads of -5? or greater. Absolutely a great week to be a dog player. And in those big-spread games, the dogs came through big.
Week 11 - 2003
1pm
Houston @ Buffalo -7 (Houston wins outright, 12-10)
NY Giants @ Philadelphia -3? (Philly won 28-10)
Arizona @ Cleveland -5? (Cleveland won 44-6)
Kansas City -6 @ Cincinnati (Cinci pulls off the outright upset, 24-19)
St Louis -6 @ Chicago (Bears cover the spread losing 23-21)
Washington @ Carolina -6 ('Skins cover the spread, losing 20-17)
Jacksonville @ Tennessee -9? (Make that 3 dogs in a row that lost but covered....Tenn wins 10-3)
Baltimore @ Miami -5? (OK, make that four in a row. Ravens lose 9-6 in OT)
Atlanta @ New Orleans -8? (Yet ANOTHER dog cover, Saints win 23-20 in OT)
Those were the 1pm games...Favs went 2-7, covering only the 2 smallest spreads
4pm
NY Jets @ Indianapolis -6 (Indy wins 38-31...close, but a cover for the favs)
San Diego @ Denver -8 (Not close...Den wins 37-8)
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay -4 (Green Bay outright winner, 20-13)
Detroit @ Seattle -10? (Big win for Sea, 35-14)
Minnesota -4? @ Oakland (Oak wins outright, 28-18)
Sunday Night
Dallas @ New England -4 (NE wins 12-0)
Monday Night
Pittsburgh @ San Fran -4 (SF wins 30-14)
Overall the dogs went 9-7. No big deal, maybe. But:
Favs covered:
...spreads of -3?, -5?, -6, -8, -10?, -4 and -4.
Dogs covered:
...spreads of -7, -6, -6, -6, -9?, -5?, -8?, -4 and -4?.
Most of the covers by the favs were on smaller spreads. With spreads of -6 or more, the majority went to the dogs. In this league, 6+ points is usually just too much to lay, no matter the matchup.
This week we do have a few (3 or 4) games with spreads of <3. But on the other side of the coin, we've got 3 games in double digits, and another 5 games at -6 or higher.
If favorites outcover dogs in those 8 large-spread games I will be REALLY shocked. This should be a good opportunity to bet the large dogs across the board and make money without even really thinking. I'd bet at least five, and probably six of these eight 6+ point dogs get the cover.
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