Tip from a pro(Jacksonville/Indianapolis game)

[jewbacca]

I'm one of the top NFL handicappers in the country the last eight years documented by the sports monitor of oklahoma.

Please dont dis-respect the countries 8th greatest NFL capper people. Dont you know when you are in the presence of greatness?

If you dont know then obviously you arent keeping up to date on the oklahoma sports monitor, a quality operation im sure.

Its ok Toby, "some of us know who you are"

 

[taipans]

ill do you one better.
the nfl is 17-4 su and 21-0 ats as a hm dg of fewer than 7 pts when they are off a win as a rd dg as long as their record is better than 50% and have a non-losing record at hm.
avg score;
hm team-24.6
rd team-16.3

play is jax

 

[MrChristo]

I have never heard of a top rated capper that uses such useless trends..... no offense guy but really... you are arguing that"the law of averages" is the best way to go about betting in this situation? if that was the case then your trend of 11-1 SU and 12-0ATS would eventually have to even out. that is the very premise of the law of averages, that everything will eventually even out. in my opinion it sounds like you are trying to drive people to your website.

p.s. Colts win and cover.

Why would I even bother?...It's HT and I'm bored!

The law of averages?....Just another way of saying %'s.
So, you don't care about any %'s, jewbacca?
You just bet the team that WILL win right? The 'better team'?
Of course you must then hope that the 'better team' covers the spread over 55% of the time.
Not sure about the 'law of averages' on that one, but Vegas balance sheets will tell you they don't.

 

[4lynski]

So much for all those stats favoring Jac...Indy offense is one that is hard to cap against....Sorry to all those on Jac.. :moon: :moon:

 

[mcity]

if not for the b.s. holding penalty on jax on that 3rd and 5 for the colts with about 6 minutes left in the game, this game ends with a FG probably either way and jax covers.....terrible call period!! but I've come to expect at least one or two of those a game from these morons they call officials in the NFL......there is no consistency on PI or holding receivers at all in this league and it is really phucked up when chit calls like this continue to first-handily determine the games outcome.

 

[jewbacca]

Why would I even bother?...It's HT and I'm bored!

The law of averages?....Just another way of saying %'s.
So, you don't care about any %'s, jewbacca?
You just bet the team that WILL win right? The 'better team'?
Of course you must then hope that the 'better team' covers the spread over 55% of the time.
Not sure about the 'law of averages' on that one, but Vegas balance sheets will tell you they don't.

what exactly are you talking about? i was merely commenting on the fact that he was saying that the best way to cap the game was to use the law of averages! by saying that he was contradicting himself.

and for the record, no, i dont use 99% of trends when i cap a game, never have and never will. i look at line movement, money flow and the over all quality of the team and coaching. i dont know what exactly you were implying?

maybe you need some AC

 

[GENO]

WELL I might not be one of the top NFL handicappers in the country the last 8 years as documented by the,..............

But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night !!!!!

 

[freelancc]

But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night !!!!!

:142lmao: :142lmao:

 

[worm44]

Who wants to bet me he does not post again for.....ever

 

[Agent 0659]

:

WELL I might not be one of the top NFL handicappers in the country the last 8 years as documented by the,..............

But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night !!!!!

:142lmao: :lol2

 

[jewbacca]

Who wants to bet me he does not post again for.....ever

your on! my money is that he replies to this for nothing more then to tell me to :fingerc:

 

[MrChristo]

what exactly are you talking about? i was merely commenting on the fact that he was saying that the best way to cap the game was to use the law of averages! by saying that he was contradicting himself.

and for the record, no, i dont use 99% of trends when i cap a game, never have and never will. i look at line movement, money flow and the over all quality of the team and coaching. i dont know what exactly you were implying?

maybe you need some AC

What I said was that by "Law of Averages", he really meant "playing the %'s".

Thought it was pretty clear at first, and still is.
It seemed to me you were saying that %'s in a game are pointless....There's only one way you will end up + in the LONG term.

These 'trends' are FAR from useless...They show spots where line-makers over/under estimate a team in certain situations.

It's all well and good to say you simply bet on the quality of the team and coaching, but by that logic these "elite" teams would go undefeated and 16-0 ats, wouldn't they?

AC?...Air-Conditioning?...Alternating Current? an Anti-Christ??....never mind!

 

[jewbacca]

What I said was that by "Law of Averages", he really meant "playing the %'s".

Thought it was pretty clear at first, and still is.
It seemed to me you were saying that %'s in a game are pointless....There's only one way you will end up + in the LONG term.

These 'trends' are FAR from useless...They show spots where line-makers over/under estimate a team in certain situations.

It's all well and good to say you simply bet on the quality of the team and coaching, but by that logic these "elite" teams would go undefeated and 16-0 ats, wouldn't they?

AC?...Air-Conditioning?...Alternating Current? an Anti-Christ??....never mind!

first of all not all trends are useless, IMO 99% of them are, especially the ones he listed.....shit from years ago has 0 relevancy....there is a reason the sportsbooks put out publications like "football news" LOADED with trend information, because they want you to bet on trends. been in the game way too long and seen waaay too many people who go broke betting on trends. its all good, we obviously have a different opinion on the matter. all i was saying was that when a trend is 11-1 or 12-0 (like the one he listed) the "law of averages" says that the higher the trend goes the higher the % is that its going to end. this is a fact.

im not going to get into how i bet on teams, its far too detailed.

i saw your picks, you rely heavily on trends, i dont pay any attention to them, end of subject.

AC=air conditioning....you said you were hot.

 

[GENO]

On fire, Hot, and Love are three words that have no place in sports handicapping.

Eg:

" WE ARE ON FIRE WE CAN'T LOSE" = run the other way

"I AM HOT" = you are due to lose

" I LOVE THIS GAME/SIDE/TOTAL/SITUATION = I am overlooking something because I am blinded by passion and greed. OR,.... I am trying to sell you this play so I can buy a hot dog at the local Speeday Gas Stop.

 

[GENO]

Give me five games a week like this and I will go 75% every year in the NFL instead of my normal 58 to 64%

:142lmao:


Hi-Yoooooooooooooo!

Silver !!!!!!!


:clap: The Lone Ranger rides again :142lmao:

 

[fletcher]

let me tell you as a real person who does make his living handicapping each game is a different game each week and you have to look at it like this , trend players are not pros you break down each game every week, a system is different then a trend some system players make money but you have to look at each game as a new game each week to much can happen from week to week, a injury, a team just played poor, you have a team running the ball well against a team who has showen can't stop the run, weather, things like that every single game each week is different the only thing that you should key on first is line play on both sides of the ball then the running game, most of the time the team who wins the running game wins the game and that is because of the line play. then you have to have a line of your own not some line from a book hell a book line is not a true line, it is a gambling line, you need to figure out how to make a true line for you that works and is proven to work then you have all you need and a few extra things i use and then you cap the game. trends are just that a trend hell if you try hard enough and dig deep you can find a trend for any week that will fit something, YOU MUST WORK EACH GAME EACH WEEK TO WIN AS A NEW GAME. Yes you use past info from a teams other games but you have to treat a game like you are a advance scout for a team in any sport and when you do that you will win more then you lose, will have a team go ass up once in awhile all teams have a bad game or 2 in the year in fb who are good teams avg teams will have 6 bad games poor teams will have 4-6 good games so you need to work each game by itself, in other sports like baseball there is a 305 rule a team will win 30% lose 30% and what they do the other 40% is where you make your money in handicapping.

 

[MrChristo]

first of all not all trends are useless, IMO 99% of them are, especially the ones he listed.....shit from years ago has 0 relevancy....there is a reason the sportsbooks put out publications like "football news" LOADED with trend information, because they want you to bet on trends. been in the game way too long and seen waaay too many people who go broke betting on trends. its all good, we obviously have a different opinion on the matter. all i was saying was that when a trend is 11-1 or 12-0 (like the one he listed) the "law of averages" says that the higher the trend goes the higher the % is that its going to end. this is a fact.

im not going to get into how i bet on teams, its far too detailed.

i saw your picks, you rely heavily on trends, i dont pay any attention to them, end of subject.

AC=air conditioning....you said you were hot.

We'll just agree to disagree on the usefulness of trends.

btw, HT=Half Time........not hot
And "It's" = It's....Not I'm! :shrug:

EDIT: Oh...And tell me Indi backers today....Did any of you handicap a horrible ref call late in the game?
A missed Jax FG?
A goal line stand by the worst defense in football?

Of course you have to look at each game individually....But we as sports bettors can't play the game. We have no control over what happens once the players run onto the field.
We 'play' against a number set by an odds-maker.
If we can find situations where (in the past) the odds-maker has over/under estimated a team than how can it be a bad thing?
As I said, I believe it's purely a % thing.
I've seen just as many people fail betting on things that are 'due'

Anyway....Good luck in the future with your 'complicated' methods.

 

[jewbacca]

We'll just agree to disagree on the usefulness of trends.

btw, HT=Half Time........not hot
And "It's" = It's....Not I'm! :shrug:

EDIT: Oh...And tell me Indi backers today....Did any of you handicap a horrible ref call late in the game?
A missed Jax FG?
A goal line stand by the worst defense in football?

Of course you have to look at each game individually....But we as sports bettors can't play the game. We have no control over what happens once the players run onto the field.
We 'play' against a number set by an odds-maker.
If we can find situations where (in the past) the odds-maker has over/under estimated a team than how can it be a bad thing?
As I said, I believe it's purely a % thing.
I've seen just as many people fail betting on things that are 'due'

Anyway....Good luck in the future with your 'complicated' methods.

dude, you sound kind of bent out of shape about all of this. maybe we should just agree to disagree. are you just pissed you went 1-4 today and you are taking it out on me?

"good luck in the future with all your complicated methods?"

complicated??? MY BAD, i should be spending my time betting on games where the Fav is coming off a win of >6 after allowing <31 points on the road off BB wins on grass when 6 years ago the Chiefs won on monday night ATS with pre-season revenge factor?

sorry i dont feel like typing out all the things that go into how i cap a game in this forum. how dare i not give so much credit and respect to the gay ass linesmakers?

i dont mean any offense by this but maybe you should open up your mind that there are other ways of doing things, instead of thinking you know it all? just ponder the thought that you are losing on the season so maybe your "usefull" trends might not be the best way to go? ill give you some free tips anytime guy :director:

:142lmao:

 

[jewbacca]

let me tell you as a real person who does make his living handicapping each game is a different game each week and you have to look at it like this , trend players are not pros you break down each game every week, a system is different then a trend some system players make money but you have to look at each game as a new game each week to much can happen from week to week, a injury, a team just played poor, you have a team running the ball well against a team who has showen can't stop the run, weather, things like that every single game each week is different the only thing that you should key on first is line play on both sides of the ball then the running game, most of the time the team who wins the running game wins the game and that is because of the line play. then you have to have a line of your own not some line from a book hell a book line is not a true line, it is a gambling line, you need to figure out how to make a true line for you that works and is proven to work then you have all you need and a few extra things i use and then you cap the game. trends are just that a trend hell if you try hard enough and dig deep you can find a trend for any week that will fit something, YOU MUST WORK EACH GAME EACH WEEK TO WIN AS A NEW GAME. Yes you use past info from a teams other games but you have to treat a game like you are a advance scout for a team in any sport and when you do that you will win more then you lose, will have a team go ass up once in awhile all teams have a bad game or 2 in the year in fb who are good teams avg teams will have 6 bad games poor teams will have 4-6 good games so you need to work each game by itself, in other sports like baseball there is a 305 rule a team will win 30% lose 30% and what they do the other 40% is where you make your money in handicapping.

THANK YOU....i couldnt have said it better myself, (besides the run on sentences)....KIDDING......i like your style my man.....someone that agrees the best linesmaker you can have is YOURSELF!

 

[yyz]

"You can't handicap the bounce!"

(That would make a good quote................)