final card:
(biggest bet of the ncaa season to date)
central michigan (+14) over bowling green
(strong)
georgia 2h (-7) over tennessee
(regular play)
southern cal (-7) over california
tailing these plays from other posters:
(sun tzu, blackman) kansas state (-2) over kansas
(cwood) the cuse (+19.5) over florida state
(spang) ohio u. (+9) over marshall
===============================
right now, mid-american conference hegemony starts in northwest ohio (bgsu/toledo) and extends southeast to oxford and huntington,west virginia. this perception allows for northern illinois to get much less credit than they deserve, and it allows central michigan to go virtually unnoticed in the mac west. in the very near future, i expect that we'll be talking about the cmu footbal revival the same way we talk about urban meyer reviving the bowling green program a few years back. cmu pulled off a tremendous coup this past offseason when they pried brian kelly away from division II national power grand valley state. this guy is a flat out winner, leading grand valley to a 41-2 record the last three years and playing for three national championships before taking the cmu job. and his teams were never one-dimensional. in 2000, grand valley averaged a preposterous 58 points per game on offense. in '02 they averaged almost 50ppg and won the national title. then last year, they won the title again and in the final 3 games of the season (quarterfinal, semifinal, championship) his team allowed a combined 9 points (and just 13ppg on the year). his teams are aggressive and attacking on both sides of the ball.
what does all that mean on saturday afternoon when bg visits central michigan? very little, of course. but i offer that background on kelly only because its exciting to see a great coach get the opportunity to turn around a program that DOES have talent and a lot of upside. the cmu program is not a moribund program like buffalo or kent or emu. theyre not going to be heading into this game with the mentality of "all we've got is a slingshot and a pebble" because thats not the way this guy coaches.
so why such a big play on the chips on saturday afternoon? theres plenty of reasons:
* central michigan played bgsu very tough last season as big underdogs before losing 23-3 (trailing just 16-3 until bg pushed across a late TD with 2:00 to go)
* bowling green is in an incredibly difficult spot. theyre laying a ton of chalk and are playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks. and i love the fact that they scored 70 points last week. because all that does is increase the liklihood of the falcons thinking they can go through the motions and get a win here. its a very weird spot - you dont see too many teams playing 4 of 5 games away from home. laying chalk on the back end of it seems awfully dangerous.
* where did northern illinois dominate bowling green? in the trenches and in the running game. this is exactly where central michigan is strongest. theyve got one of the premier backs in the mac in seymour. the kid is a stud - almost 5.5 yards a carry and 135 yds a game. bowling green does not play the run well and seymour should definitely get his 100+. chips rushing attack is one step below northern illinois' statistically.
* kelly is no stranger to the spread offense that bg runs. his teams perfected it at grand valley. so these teams are going to be mirroring each other on saturday. the falcon's offensive sets wont be foreign to cmu and that in itself levels the playing field a little bit.
* bottom line is kelly is getting this program back in the right direction. its going to take time, and theres no doubt bgsu is the superior team. thats not rocket science, and the 14 pts says as much. but i think the 14 is just too much, given bg's mediocre play on the road under brandon. but chips also have some variables in their favor. they get this game in front of a homecoming crowd, they know they can play bgsu tough, and they get the falcons on the back end of what essentially is a month long road trip.
i also like how kelly is doing a little sandbagging to the media:
"we're excited about the opportunity of playing bowling green on homecoming. if bowling green doesn't play well, we'll have a chance"
thats some lou holtz shit right there. this guy is not a coach that expects to lose. he's lost 2 games the last 43 times he's come out of a locker room. theres no doubt in my mind that, even if they are a little undermanned during his first season as chips HC, they are going to be very prepared and wont be taking the field "hoping to stay close". the way this guy coaches, he will have them believing they can win the game. the chips ground game has been controlling the clock all season and done a good job of sustaining drives. bg is in for a far more difficult game than they expect. im expecting a single-digit game. i highly doubt cmu pulls the upset. but this is the kind of game that can be a springboard for an up-and-coming team like cmu. i would strongly suggest grabbing the points.
===============================
(biggest bet of the ncaa season to date)
central michigan (+14) over bowling green
(strong)
georgia 2h (-7) over tennessee
(regular play)
southern cal (-7) over california
tailing these plays from other posters:
(sun tzu, blackman) kansas state (-2) over kansas
(cwood) the cuse (+19.5) over florida state
(spang) ohio u. (+9) over marshall
===============================
right now, mid-american conference hegemony starts in northwest ohio (bgsu/toledo) and extends southeast to oxford and huntington,west virginia. this perception allows for northern illinois to get much less credit than they deserve, and it allows central michigan to go virtually unnoticed in the mac west. in the very near future, i expect that we'll be talking about the cmu footbal revival the same way we talk about urban meyer reviving the bowling green program a few years back. cmu pulled off a tremendous coup this past offseason when they pried brian kelly away from division II national power grand valley state. this guy is a flat out winner, leading grand valley to a 41-2 record the last three years and playing for three national championships before taking the cmu job. and his teams were never one-dimensional. in 2000, grand valley averaged a preposterous 58 points per game on offense. in '02 they averaged almost 50ppg and won the national title. then last year, they won the title again and in the final 3 games of the season (quarterfinal, semifinal, championship) his team allowed a combined 9 points (and just 13ppg on the year). his teams are aggressive and attacking on both sides of the ball.
what does all that mean on saturday afternoon when bg visits central michigan? very little, of course. but i offer that background on kelly only because its exciting to see a great coach get the opportunity to turn around a program that DOES have talent and a lot of upside. the cmu program is not a moribund program like buffalo or kent or emu. theyre not going to be heading into this game with the mentality of "all we've got is a slingshot and a pebble" because thats not the way this guy coaches.
so why such a big play on the chips on saturday afternoon? theres plenty of reasons:
* central michigan played bgsu very tough last season as big underdogs before losing 23-3 (trailing just 16-3 until bg pushed across a late TD with 2:00 to go)
* bowling green is in an incredibly difficult spot. theyre laying a ton of chalk and are playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks. and i love the fact that they scored 70 points last week. because all that does is increase the liklihood of the falcons thinking they can go through the motions and get a win here. its a very weird spot - you dont see too many teams playing 4 of 5 games away from home. laying chalk on the back end of it seems awfully dangerous.
* where did northern illinois dominate bowling green? in the trenches and in the running game. this is exactly where central michigan is strongest. theyve got one of the premier backs in the mac in seymour. the kid is a stud - almost 5.5 yards a carry and 135 yds a game. bowling green does not play the run well and seymour should definitely get his 100+. chips rushing attack is one step below northern illinois' statistically.
* kelly is no stranger to the spread offense that bg runs. his teams perfected it at grand valley. so these teams are going to be mirroring each other on saturday. the falcon's offensive sets wont be foreign to cmu and that in itself levels the playing field a little bit.
* bottom line is kelly is getting this program back in the right direction. its going to take time, and theres no doubt bgsu is the superior team. thats not rocket science, and the 14 pts says as much. but i think the 14 is just too much, given bg's mediocre play on the road under brandon. but chips also have some variables in their favor. they get this game in front of a homecoming crowd, they know they can play bgsu tough, and they get the falcons on the back end of what essentially is a month long road trip.
i also like how kelly is doing a little sandbagging to the media:
"we're excited about the opportunity of playing bowling green on homecoming. if bowling green doesn't play well, we'll have a chance"
thats some lou holtz shit right there. this guy is not a coach that expects to lose. he's lost 2 games the last 43 times he's come out of a locker room. theres no doubt in my mind that, even if they are a little undermanned during his first season as chips HC, they are going to be very prepared and wont be taking the field "hoping to stay close". the way this guy coaches, he will have them believing they can win the game. the chips ground game has been controlling the clock all season and done a good job of sustaining drives. bg is in for a far more difficult game than they expect. im expecting a single-digit game. i highly doubt cmu pulls the upset. but this is the kind of game that can be a springboard for an up-and-coming team like cmu. i would strongly suggest grabbing the points.
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