15-23-1 (-9.48)
Lucky to still have a 'net connection after last week!!...Actually, lucky to still have a house to attach the phone line to! :cursin:
To make it worse, I'm sure the stress of it all has done something scary to my head....
...The best I can come up with this week is 2 horrible teams and big-ass teaser!!
Nothing down yet, but looking very closely at:
Oakland +9 (Seeing the world on Indi...could scrape a 9.5, maybe a 10!!
by game time??)
Simply tough to take a team with a defense this bad as a big fav.
Indi allowing over 300 ypg passing...and allow 3rd down conversions @ 52%!!
Yeah, I know Collins looked drunk last week, but I'm sure he can bounce back. He lead the team well in pre-season...If they can hold onto the ball, I think da Raiders can be right in this one all the way....They've been right in every game this season but are -8 in turnovers!!
Their ground game has been good so far (av. 4.6 ypc), and although Wheatley out, Zereoue ran for 117 on just 14 carries last week, so no problems there.
Indi held Jax to 3.0 ypc last week, but could afford to show no respect to the Jax passing game. Collins and the Raiders are much more of a deep threat, so I'm willing to bet Oakland can establish a ground game to keep Manning and co. off the field for long periods.
Oakland allowing only 3.6 ypc on the ground, so they should be able to keep James in check and not bite on play-action fakes.
They also allow <60% passing and have had 12 sacks for the year so far.
Realistically Indi have been out-played in 3 of their 4 games this year, and Green Bay turned it over twice, played ZERO defense and still only lost by 14.
Oakland's running game is better than GB...run D much better, they pass for more yards and allow less passing yards.
I repeat: If they can hold onto the ball, I think da Raiders can be right in this one all the way.
San Diego +2.5 (ML if reasonable price) (hoping for a +3)
I know I've been on abot how crap SD are, and the Jags are for real...But this is a tough trip for Jax.
No real secret that the Jags rely on their ground game and a strong D to win games.
A quick look at the stats (early in the season still, I know!...but) the Chargers have the 3rd best run D in the NFL!!...Allowing only 3.3 ypc!...Better than the Jags themselves @ 3.5.
SD's defensive problems are against the pass, but can the Jags take advantage? Not so sure they can.
They only scored 17 @ home v. a worse defense than this last week...which would mean SD would only have to hit 14 to at least push @ +3.
Also think I've just talked myself into under 37 as a good bet. No point jumping off the Jax under train just yet I guess
6 team, 6 point teaser @ 7.00 (+600)
NYG +9.5 (much better ground game. Warner looking ok)
NE -6.5 (any explaination needed?)
TB +9 (NO defense a disaster! Too one dimentional without Duece...Actually like TB +3 as a play)
Seattle -1
Jets -0.5
Det/Atl under 47 (Actually like this game to go under 41, and might play it)....
...Falcons average 33 runs a game to only 18 passes.
This will play into the hands of the Lions as they have a reasonable Run D (allowing only 3.6 ypr), but their problem is their weak secondary.
Can Atlanta take advantage?...Doubt it.
On the other side of the ball, Detroit WILL NOT be able to get any kind of ground game going. In a way it works out well that Bryson looked ok last week. Mariucci saying that they will persist with trying to establish a running game.
I see Detroit being in a lot of 2nd/3rd and longs.
I also think that the Falcons will be able to play a lot of Nickle/Dime packages, and just allow their front 6 to control the Det ground game.
Add to that, Detroit just can't score on the road. (20 @ Chicago was their best for a LONG time...and even then the blocked FG was 7 of those.)
Just some early (pointless!!) thoughts.
Good luck everyone
Lucky to still have a 'net connection after last week!!...Actually, lucky to still have a house to attach the phone line to! :cursin:
To make it worse, I'm sure the stress of it all has done something scary to my head....
...The best I can come up with this week is 2 horrible teams and big-ass teaser!!
Nothing down yet, but looking very closely at:
Oakland +9 (Seeing the world on Indi...could scrape a 9.5, maybe a 10!!
by game time??)Simply tough to take a team with a defense this bad as a big fav.
Indi allowing over 300 ypg passing...and allow 3rd down conversions @ 52%!!
Yeah, I know Collins looked drunk last week, but I'm sure he can bounce back. He lead the team well in pre-season...If they can hold onto the ball, I think da Raiders can be right in this one all the way....They've been right in every game this season but are -8 in turnovers!!
Their ground game has been good so far (av. 4.6 ypc), and although Wheatley out, Zereoue ran for 117 on just 14 carries last week, so no problems there.
Indi held Jax to 3.0 ypc last week, but could afford to show no respect to the Jax passing game. Collins and the Raiders are much more of a deep threat, so I'm willing to bet Oakland can establish a ground game to keep Manning and co. off the field for long periods.
Oakland allowing only 3.6 ypc on the ground, so they should be able to keep James in check and not bite on play-action fakes.
They also allow <60% passing and have had 12 sacks for the year so far.
Realistically Indi have been out-played in 3 of their 4 games this year, and Green Bay turned it over twice, played ZERO defense and still only lost by 14.
Oakland's running game is better than GB...run D much better, they pass for more yards and allow less passing yards.
I repeat: If they can hold onto the ball, I think da Raiders can be right in this one all the way.
San Diego +2.5 (ML if reasonable price) (hoping for a +3)
I know I've been on abot how crap SD are, and the Jags are for real...But this is a tough trip for Jax.
No real secret that the Jags rely on their ground game and a strong D to win games.
A quick look at the stats (early in the season still, I know!...but) the Chargers have the 3rd best run D in the NFL!!...Allowing only 3.3 ypc!...Better than the Jags themselves @ 3.5.
SD's defensive problems are against the pass, but can the Jags take advantage? Not so sure they can.
They only scored 17 @ home v. a worse defense than this last week...which would mean SD would only have to hit 14 to at least push @ +3.
Also think I've just talked myself into under 37 as a good bet. No point jumping off the Jax under train just yet I guess
6 team, 6 point teaser @ 7.00 (+600)
NYG +9.5 (much better ground game. Warner looking ok)
NE -6.5 (any explaination needed?)
TB +9 (NO defense a disaster! Too one dimentional without Duece...Actually like TB +3 as a play)
Seattle -1
Jets -0.5
Det/Atl under 47 (Actually like this game to go under 41, and might play it)....
...Falcons average 33 runs a game to only 18 passes.
This will play into the hands of the Lions as they have a reasonable Run D (allowing only 3.6 ypr), but their problem is their weak secondary.
Can Atlanta take advantage?...Doubt it.
On the other side of the ball, Detroit WILL NOT be able to get any kind of ground game going. In a way it works out well that Bryson looked ok last week. Mariucci saying that they will persist with trying to establish a running game.
I see Detroit being in a lot of 2nd/3rd and longs.
I also think that the Falcons will be able to play a lot of Nickle/Dime packages, and just allow their front 6 to control the Det ground game.
Add to that, Detroit just can't score on the road. (20 @ Chicago was their best for a LONG time...and even then the blocked FG was 7 of those.)
Just some early (pointless!!) thoughts.
Good luck everyone
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