Looking at tonight's game...obviously someone goes to 1-4 when it's all done and their season is essentially over. Damned if I can figure which team though. I have very little faith in either team. Which got me to thinking a little bit... and I think I have come up with something.
I really have very little read on this Packers team. The one thing I do feel fairly certain about is that Tennessee should score in the range of ~20 pts (which is also what the line+total indicate). They haven't hit 20 yet this year, but they've been up against tougher D than this in most games. GB's D is nothing special IMO. 20 really sounds about right for Tenn...I'd say 17-23 is a reasonable expectation. This brings me to an old strategy I have used in the past with some success (though usually in games where the spread is a bit higher than 3). I'm not a big parlay guy, but I will make an exception now and then when the two are linked. And when I figure I can get a pretty good estimate on what one team or the other will score this is one of those times where it makes sense.
With the line and total at about -3 and 44.... if Tennessee scores 20 or 21, you're in a good position with dual parlays:
? One parlay on GB and the Over
? One parlay on Tenn and the Under
Of course one of these parlays MUST lose. Both could lose for that matter. If you bet this all you are really hoping for is for the Titans to score as close to 20 as possible. What the Packers score doesn't even really matter as long as Tennessee comes close to their target #. The closer they are, the better your chances. If this happens, one of your parlays will win you 2.6 units... minus the 1 unit for the losing parlay, for a net profit of 1.6 units.
In other words, I'm either up 1.6 units, or down 2.0 units for the night...slightly more juice than I'd pay on a simple straight bet. But if you feel you can make a pretty accurate estimate on one of the teams involved...that makes taking on a little added risk worthwhile I think. So that's what I'm doing tonight.
Good luck all.
I really have very little read on this Packers team. The one thing I do feel fairly certain about is that Tennessee should score in the range of ~20 pts (which is also what the line+total indicate). They haven't hit 20 yet this year, but they've been up against tougher D than this in most games. GB's D is nothing special IMO. 20 really sounds about right for Tenn...I'd say 17-23 is a reasonable expectation. This brings me to an old strategy I have used in the past with some success (though usually in games where the spread is a bit higher than 3). I'm not a big parlay guy, but I will make an exception now and then when the two are linked. And when I figure I can get a pretty good estimate on what one team or the other will score this is one of those times where it makes sense.
With the line and total at about -3 and 44.... if Tennessee scores 20 or 21, you're in a good position with dual parlays:
? One parlay on GB and the Over
? One parlay on Tenn and the Under
Of course one of these parlays MUST lose. Both could lose for that matter. If you bet this all you are really hoping for is for the Titans to score as close to 20 as possible. What the Packers score doesn't even really matter as long as Tennessee comes close to their target #. The closer they are, the better your chances. If this happens, one of your parlays will win you 2.6 units... minus the 1 unit for the losing parlay, for a net profit of 1.6 units.
In other words, I'm either up 1.6 units, or down 2.0 units for the night...slightly more juice than I'd pay on a simple straight bet. But if you feel you can make a pretty accurate estimate on one of the teams involved...that makes taking on a little added risk worthwhile I think. So that's what I'm doing tonight.
Good luck all.
I actually went only about 3/4 of a unit risked on each play.
