I don't do this very often, but when I do put out a guarantee it usually comes through. After watching the public money win yesterday with Pittsburgh, Denver and Minnesota, I wondered why Vegas would not move those lines, but would rather take a financial blow. Well, Vegas sportsbooks are not in the business of losing money and that is why the public team will once again lose on Monday night. The square or public teams are 1-4 ATS in this year's MNF games. Clearly, the public team here is the St. Louis Rams at - 6 or - 6.5. Why are they favored by less than a touchdown? Well, they're favored by less than a TD because it gives the public a perception of value - i.e. the Rams look like easy winners, as they only have to win by a touchdown. According to the current numbers out of a few Vegas books, over 80% of the action is on the Rams. This is the perfect scenario for Vegas to profit on the most highly-wagered game of the week. Convincing the public even more to bet on the Rams is the fact that St. Louis has won 2 in a row on the road including last week's 17 point comback at Seattle. Meanwhile, the Bucs look hard-pressed at 1-4, without a real starter and a receiving corps that will struggle to keep pace with the Rams offensive attack. Make no mistake, the public will be wrong...again. Vegas will get back yesterday's losses and then some. Take my advice on this one, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will cover this spread.
Tampa Bay will cover....Guaranteed!
- Thread starter Dennis Kang
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You say the square teams are 1-4 ATS, well what about the possiblity that this might make it 2-4???? My point: each game is a new game and you cant use trends like that for one game. St Louis might NOT cover, but it wont be because the public thinks they will. I just think individual games should be left to themselves because next week this thread could easily say "square teams 2-4 ATS on MNF".
Lets see... Public Money..... HMMMM
Pittsburgh, Denver, and Minny all won because they are the better teams..... F this public Money BS
Pittsburgh, Denver, and Minny all won because they are the better teams..... F this public Money BS
Squares
Squares
I am starting to believe that the non-squares are now squares. If most non-squares think on the same line as Mr. Kang (and we know there are tons of people with this line of thoughts), then that would make the "non-squares" squares.
Go against the non-squares now and win.
Squares
I am starting to believe that the non-squares are now squares. If most non-squares think on the same line as Mr. Kang (and we know there are tons of people with this line of thoughts), then that would make the "non-squares" squares.
Go against the non-squares now and win.
I like reading threads like this just to watch people's reactions ... new guys get blasted for writing taboo capping lingo ... good way to end my otherwise dull workday.
Rebel 21,
I' m not simply saying that the square teams will lose because they've lost 4 of the last 5 on Monday night. Rather, I'm saying that Vegas lost money on the last 3 games on the board yesterday with more than 75% of the public betting into the 3 squares that won. You don't have to follow my advice, but if you don't then you are on the same side as the majority of the bettors on tonight's game.
Anyways good luck to all, I'm sticking with what's worked so far with the Bucs.
PS: Most people in St. Louis will have their attention on the baseball game, rather than a football game against Tampa Bay.
I' m not simply saying that the square teams will lose because they've lost 4 of the last 5 on Monday night. Rather, I'm saying that Vegas lost money on the last 3 games on the board yesterday with more than 75% of the public betting into the 3 squares that won. You don't have to follow my advice, but if you don't then you are on the same side as the majority of the bettors on tonight's game.
Anyways good luck to all, I'm sticking with what's worked so far with the Bucs.
PS: Most people in St. Louis will have their attention on the baseball game, rather than a football game against Tampa Bay.
Kang: I like TB +7 and the money line too! This one is a public disaster for "public" money. Vegas wins tonight!
EVEN THE CASINO BOOKS LOSE...THEY MAKE MOST OF THEIR MONEY FROM THE SLOT MACHINES, SO A MAJOR BLOW TO THEM AT THEIR SPORTSBOOK IS NOTHING. A DROP IN THE HAT. LINE OPENED AT 7. MAN, IF THE FRICKING RAIDERS CAN DESTROY THE BUCS, WAIT TIL THE RAMS GET TO THEM. BUCS CANT STOP THE RUN, SO THEIR WILL BE A HEAVY DOSE OF FAULK FOLLOWED BY SOME GREAT PLAY ACTION. BUCS CANT RUN THE BALL. BLITZ THE SHIT OUTA GREISE, WHO WILL BE THROWING TO THE SIDELINES MOST OF THE NIGHT. MAN, ITS GONNA BE A DOUBLE DIGIT WIN FOR THE RAMS.
"public money"
Are you not part of the public? I hate this term. Vegas has no underlying plan to beat the "public". They will take their 10% every week and build another fountain. If you are basing all your picks on "public money" you might want to reconsider.
Good Luck!
Are you not part of the public? I hate this term. Vegas has no underlying plan to beat the "public". They will take their 10% every week and build another fountain. If you are basing all your picks on "public money" you might want to reconsider.
Good Luck!
I dont do this often either but..
You're on LSD and crack at the same time. Nothing is guaranteed bozzo. I think there should be a rule, if you 'GUARANTEE' something you should disappear from the planet if you lose!
GOD HELP US!! GO RAMS GO.. May the better team win!
You're on LSD and crack at the same time. Nothing is guaranteed bozzo. I think there should be a rule, if you 'GUARANTEE' something you should disappear from the planet if you lose!
GOD HELP US!! GO RAMS GO.. May the better team win!
TOAST, YOU ARE RIGHT. PUBLIC MONEY TALK IS STRICTLY FOR THE SQUARES. BOOKS CRUNCH THEIR NUMBERS AND COME UP WITH A LINE. WHETHER THE LINE SEEMS ABOUT RIGHT OR TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, ITS JUST THE NUMBER THAT CAME UP AFTER NUMBER CRUNCHING. NO MATTER WHAT A LINE IS, YOU WILL ALWAYS HAVE AN ARGUMENT FOR BOTH SIDES. TOAST IS RIGHT. BOOKS WANTS THE JUICE. IN THEIR PERFECT WORLD, THEY WANT EVEN ACTION ON EVERY GAME WITH A LINE. NOT LOPSIDED ACTION.
the marbled rye ...
anyhow, i think if you go back to not too long ago, the pub ate up MNF for a while ... its cycles, the #s oscillate like the universe and theres no rhyme to them ... Tampa may cover but have U checked that offense, good lord, Chuckie lost his wand ... and the rams at home have been horrible ... anyway, I dont like game .. and a couple weeks ago i checked a site that had games at 80% + etc and they ended 13-13 for the week ... so who the heck knows? I doubt even Yoda does
gl, gregg
... anyhow, i think if you go back to not too long ago, the pub ate up MNF for a while ... its cycles, the #s oscillate like the universe and theres no rhyme to them ... Tampa may cover but have U checked that offense, good lord, Chuckie lost his wand ... and the rams at home have been horrible ... anyway, I dont like game .. and a couple weeks ago i checked a site that had games at 80% + etc and they ended 13-13 for the week ... so who the heck knows? I doubt even Yoda does
gl, gregg
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