some plays...some leans...some pimp talk

[gardenweasel]

not listed in order of importance...


1)kansas+28(-130).......see no reason not to take a shot with an improved kansas defense that has hung in practically every game..coming off a bye......particularly with oklahoma staring at okie st on the road next week...kansas has shown some pluck this year....mangino familiar with the oklahoma system...maybe stoops shows some mercy on his old rolley-poley buddy... ...4 td`s is worth a play,imo....

2)tx a+m-14...hot...balanced...home...colorado`s offense has not shown the ability to stay with this caliber offense...may not be able keep up...

3)stanford-3(-130)....solid club at home...oregon has 2 straight wins...i still see them as an inconsistent club with questionable coaching..

4)lou tech-1.5...moats is healthy...starting qb allen may be back...even though back-up threw for 300+ last week...balance...homecoming...utep is solid...improved......

this is a tough game...but,la tech has already seen miami fla,tennessee and auburn....both have beaten fresno...and utep did it on the road...utmost respect for mike price as a coach...but,while the fresno win was impressive,i`m not getting carried away by utep`s win over mainland-handicapped hawaii....and after prepping for the pass-happy hawaii offense,moats may be a bit of a shock to the utep system...

still riding moats and company to get the tough win at home...not a bag shot,though....this one scares me a bit..

5)penn st-1.5...pass defense is solid...iowa one dimensional...penn st healthier..off the bye...iowa a little banged up... not the same on the road...even though az st and michigan are tough roadies...granted..i think penn st has an excellent shot if their qb keeps the mistakes to a minimum...no running game to speak of on either side...if penn st blows,their season is toast..

6)t.tech+2... just not sold on texas...overrated...poorly coached...somewhat one dimensional....strong home court...

7)okie st+4(-120).....fvck it...i`m staying with my original decision...


8)fla-24.....small....only because after their opening win,miss st`s season has gone south in a hurry....such a discrepancy in talent and and level of program that i have to wager a couple bucks despite florida looking at georgia next week....bad spot...they can still cover with half concentration.....small...

looking at:
rice+10

ohio+12 or 13...

ucla +8 if i can get it...ucla can`t stop the run...az st doesn`t run well....ucla can keep this close..

fresno+12.......


pimp talk---"...yo bitch....get yo` nappy ass over to tyrone`s and ho` me some money.....a`aight?"..

g.l.

 

[greed]

games

games

I lean to all your games except Penn State. They just don't have any playmakers and have a quarterback who turns it over. This line most likely will go up to Penn State -3. Love Okie State and believe UClA looks awfully good also. Good luck to you Gardenweasel!

 

[gardenweasel]

thanks greed....penn st hasn`t proven a thing...and many thought they might step up this year....


..i hear you......i keep expecting zach mills to step up....the first time i saw him play,he blew me away....from then on,a huge disappointment....they`ve been in their games...against some solid opposition...

it`s a situational play...iowa on the road...penn st rested and healthy....it`s now or never...

i have to admit,ferentz and joepa is now a coaching mismatch....i understand your skepticism...

g.l.,bud...

 

[gardenweasel]

9)..adding kansas st-5 .understand that meier will play...how long is the worry

10)ohio st-13(-120)....small play

11) oregon st-7(-130).....

airforce-2

minny-18

to much chalk..

 

[AR182]

gw,

so far i'm with you on tex. a+m,ucla, & stanford.

i think you are on the right side with penn. st.....unranked favored over a ranked team.

originally when the lines came out i liked ok. st. but after reading the system that i wrote in my thread, & missouri(unranked) favored over a ranked ok. st.,& ok. st. playing okla.next week, i'm starting to lean to missouri.


good luck this week.

 

[gardenweasel]

yeah...the oklahoma on deck angle is a concern..although i saw a stat that okie st is 4-0 ats in their last 4 preceding oklahoma....go figure.......my thinking is that if they lose to missou,they`d better beat oklahoma next week or their season may go down in flames...

and i`m not crazy about being on the opposite side of a wagering deity(after last week,your picture is hanging from my rearview mirror...and st peter has been bumped off the dashboard...........my old lady asked me why i had a picture of "george carlin" hanging from the mirror....i told her to mind her own business...lol)...

as i said earlier,missou`s played some real cupcakes.... okie st has 2 solid wins on the road(ucla and colorado).....and the comparison of the 2 clubs vs colorado is not favorable for missou...missou struggled with the buffs at home....okie st blew colorado out in boulder...not that the comparison is worth a damn....but,i also understand that okie st is pretty one dimensional and that missou is very tough at home...if the stats aren`t skewed as i thought they might be,missou is tough against the run...

i`m just a little surprised that everyone jumped off the okie st bandwagon after one loss vs what may be the hottest team in the country....

oklahoma on deck and the home court are solids factors..no doubt...i just think that 4 points is prohibitive with what i consider the better club.....

but,as i said,inertia is a powerful thing...and you`ve got it......i may buy back just because you like missou....i`ll sleep on it...

a very good game i wouldn`t mind watching ....

g.l.,my man...

 

[AR182]

gw,

you're funny.

i'm liable to go 3-16 this week.

i'm not sure if i like mizz or not. but what i posted is,imo very strong.i'm doing more research on the game.

i hate to think that you changed a bet because of what i wrote.

 

[gardenweasel]

not just what you wrote....the one dimensional aspect of okie st....the missou rushing defense stats(even though skewed, imo)....the relative youth of okie st heading into an important big 12 road match-up.....

your stats are a factor....

i was obviously kidding with you on the picture/st peter(meant to write st christopher,lol)thing.......but last week was worthy of a second mention....

 

[redsfann]

Iowa "One dimensional..." huh?

....and "no running game to speak of on either side" Again...huh?

Have you seen Iowa play this season? If you are looking at total stats for the year, then your arguements might have some merit, but over the last two games..granted, we were at home...the offensive line has finally had some continuity to it and is doing a great job in giving Tate the time he needs to find his recievers and run the ball a bit.
Granted, the running back situation is at critical status, seeing as how Marcus Simmons is now out and we are down to a walk-on and a true freshman.
Football games are won with the ability to run the ball and stop the run. I know that Penn State will NOT, I repeat, WILL NOT be able to run the ball on Iowa. No one has yet this season, and if you think Penn State's running game is better than either Michigan's or Ohio State's, then there ain't much I can tell you to convince you otherwise.
The Arizona State game was a huge wake-up call for the Iowa program this season, and Michigan scored 27 of their 30 points off of 5 turnovers--4 of which gave Michigan very short fields in which to work.
If there is a team in the Big-10 thats playing as well as Iowa right now, it would only be the Wisconsin Badgers. Iowa wins this in a laugher just like they did last week against a hapless Ohio State squad. Good luck with Penn State, your gonna need it...lol...

 

[gardenweasel]

reds....we`re talking about missou/okie st....but i did mention iowa being one dimensional.....

they`ll have to prove they can be as effective on the road as they are at home....a penn st squad that can`t seem to get over the hump seems to be a good place to start...the iowa defense is very good...at least at home...

lets see if the hawkeyes can get off the schneid on the road..

then we can say they are turning the corner

 

[greed]

Penn States Robinson

Penn States Robinson

First Gardenweasel someone has to teach you how to bash your too nice of guy. You probably only go out with virgins too!

Your Penn State wager is looking a little better with Robinson back in the line up. As the biggest problem with the Nittany Lions is they have not been very athletic in the skill positions. I thought that Mills was going to be a great college QB when he came out but after his freshmen season they have had problems at the wide out. May see a little bit of a letdown from Iowa off their big win.
I'll stay off this one. Pound Texas Tech this weekend!

 

[DoMyDermBest]

Garden, Kansas sux. OU covers this one by half. OKIE ST Much better team than Misery.

 

[redsfann]

g.w.--

Ooohhh, them initials make me cringe.....


but thats a topic for a different area of M.J.s...LOL...

I see what your saying....and its not like my take on my Hawks isn't tainted a bit by the black and gold colored lenses in my glasses...... and the fact that Iowa hasn't got it done on the road this season is certainly a factor in this line.
Biggest thing for me in this one is the offensive line being healthy and that Tate has now played on the road twice, leading me to believe that any butterflies he may have had earlier should be gone.
Its been fun to watch him get better by leaps and bounds every start this season.
Remember, he is a first year starter, and the first two games he faced on the road were a fired-up ASU squad looking for some revenge after the 21-2 embarrasment they took in Iowa City two years ago and a Michigan team that had lost 2 straight to Iowa- where we turned the ball over 5 times, leading to 27 of Big Blue's 30 points.
Rest of the card looks solid. Good Luck this weekend!

 

[taoist]

gw,

...regarding your lean to Ohio +13, I found this at one of the consensus sites that I look over....

459 Bets Bowling Green 98.47% - Ohio 1.53%


...that's 7 bets on ohio and 452 on bg...don't know about you, but I'm on the freaking bobcats. GL this week.

 

[Chisler]

what site is that?

 

[gardenweasel]

tao....that`s an incredible consensus....after looking at some other sites,b.g. appears to be,indeed,a public darling....

with b.g. throwing down ridiculous beatings on some bad mac clubs,it looks like the linesmakers are baiting us to throw down on them...that plus ohio`s less than stellar performance at toledo last week...

you have to ask yourself,"why is this line-12 or 13?"

i like ohio here...that consensus alone is good enough to get me to weigh in...thanks for the info,bud...


reds....i agree...this week will tell us alot about the young iowa qb....if penn st continues this season the way they started it,it`s hard to see any reason for them to keep joepa......

we`ll see...g.l....on your other plays...lol

 

[gardenweasel]

adding akron -10 vs road hapless ball st....i gagged when i played this one.....but akron is showing a little life....ball st,not....

 

[Irish]

gardenweasel

Good luck this weekend. Nice write-ups, good information! I'm with you on Kansas, but butting heads on A&M. Still capping Florida but it looks like it will be a play for me as well!

Cheers
Irish

 

[ajoytoy]

gl on the plays GW