plays for 10/21-10/23

A

AR182

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in addition to my plays, i'll add some systems & angles that i come accross.

here is one that may interest some people........


i got this system from a well respected capper from another site.he has been playing this system for a few years & has done well with it.

Play on any greater than .332 team as dog up to -9 if they are facing an opponent who is 5-1 S/U and off a loss last week (first loss of the season).

25 year ATS record: 35-11 ATS, including 20-1 ATS if our team is not off a 10+ ATS win and does not have revenge.

20-1 ATS Group:

Michigan over Purdue
UCLA over Arizona State
Missouri over Oklahoma St.

35-11 Group:

Rice over Navy

Duke over Virginia does not qualify because duke's winning % record is LESS THAN .332


Louisville suffered its first loss last week but are only 4-1 and don't qualify................


good luck.
 
Irish

Irish

Green&Orange
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Jan 8, 2004
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AR
Great info, I was thinking that might be too much chalk for UVA after such a big loss. Good Luck this weekend

Irish
 
A

AR182

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thanks guys for the well wishes.

here is an article, by peter fiutak, that i read in the college football news that i find to be an interesting theory...........


In last week?s Cavalcade I mentioned my theory that at this point in the season, despite all reason and logic in the matchups, the double-digit home underdog almost always covers going 12-5 against the spread over the previous two weeks. So how did it work out this week?

- Illinois ?19 over Michigan (Michigan 31-19)
- Minnesota ?10 over Michigan State (MSU 51-10)
- Oklahoma ?20.5 over Kansas State (OU 31-21)
- Miami Univ. ?20 over Buffalo (MU 25-7)
- Marshall ?13 over Kent State (MU 27-17)
- South Carolina ?11 over Kentucky (USC 12-7)
- Tennessee ?10 over Ole Miss (UT 21-17)
- Troy ?12 over Arkansas State (ASU 13-9)
- Boise State ?21 over Tulsa (BSU 45-42)

That?s 9-0. Of course this is strictly for educational folly and you shouldn?t go ?investing? your kid?s juice money over a crackpot theory, but there are people who dream of going 21-5 over a three week span. So who?s on tap for this week?

- Florida ?25 at Mississippi State
- Bowling Green ?12.5 at Ohio
- Northern Illinois ?19.5 at Western Michigan
- Virginia ?24.5 at Duke
- Florida State ?13.5 at Wake Forest
- UAB ?17 at Tulane
- Cal ?21.5 at Arizona

i wouldn't bet these blindly, but it's worth monitoring.

good luck.
 
A

AR182

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thanks toy.


68-48 +22.25*


2*w. virginia-14(130).................

imo,syracuse doesn't have the firepower on offense to stay with wv tonight. on defense syr. is allowing an average of 183 yds. on the ground at 4.6 yds. per carry. teams such as virginia, purdue, & fla. st. have rushed for at least 225 yds.& 5.0 yds. per carry.

syr. is.....

2-16 ats in last 18 conference road dogs.

6-23 ats as road dogs vs. all .600 or better opponents.

1-8 ats as dogs off a bye week in their last 9.

4-41 ats in last 45 su road losses.

w. virginia is 13-2 ats in last 15 conference games.


good luck.
 
A

AR182

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adding.......

some of these games i put in early this week.

2*under 42 miami/ncst.(120)

prior to last weeks game vs. loiusville, miami defense was allowing only 6 ppg.ncst.has the #1 ranked defense in total yards & pass defense.

2*utah-23(120)........

utah has faced 3 bcs conference opponents in 2004 & have beaten them all by 17 points or more. they've faced 2 mountain west opponents & rival utah st.winning those games by an average of 25 points per game.on offense they are averaging 45 points per game at home. their defense is allowing 15 points per game.they are on a 15-3 ats run since meyer became coach in 2003.4 teams above them in the rankings lost last week, but utah didn't move up a notch in the standings.i think they continue to send a message to the skeptics.

2*n. mex.-3(130).......

s. diego st. is having problems with injuries on the o-line & should have problems handling n. mex.'s blitzing defense. s diego st. is averaging 12.3 ppg.

2*fla. atl.-13.5(120).....

fla. atl. is 5-0 this year with upset wins at hawaii, at n. tex., & at middle tenn.they have 18 starters returning from their 2 deep. monroe is averaging 9 pts. per game on the road & this is their 3rd road trip in 4 games.

2*tex.a&m-15......

col. is besieged by injuries & stupid mistakes.they have problems stopping the run & are rushing for an average of 69 yds. per game on the road.they are being outgained on the road by a 422 -249 yd. margin. their qb's have a 5/10 td. int. ratio.a&m has 15-1 turnover edge & are allowing 11.8 ppg.in their last 5 games.

2*auburn-27(120).......

this is kentucky's 3rd road game this year & have scored a total of 3 points in the first 2 road games.they have committed 18 turnovers in 6 games.imo, auburn is the best all around team in the country with a very balanced offense & the #7 rated defense in the nation.they need to keep winning big so as to not lose ground in the polls.

2*b.c.+7.5(120)........

b.c. is one of 7 teams to have out gained every opponent in every game this year.they are 27-6 ats a non-conference road dog under this coach & 10-2 ats in the last 12 following a su loss. n.d. is 4-9 ats in last 13 vs..600 or better opponent.

2*conn.-16.5(120)......

there are 13 seniors on conn.'s 2 deep that remeber the 56-7 beating that temple gave them in 2001 & the loss to temple in 2002 by 38-24. conn. is 7-0 ats off a su loss in their last 7 & 7-1 ats in their history when facing a team that has a winning % of .333 or worse.temple is 0-21 ats in games they lose vs. revenge seeking opponents.

2*stanford -3 (120).......

under their present coach stanford is 11-4 ats, including 4-0 ats this year at home.they are 6-0 ats as a home favorite under this coach.


good luck.
 
D

DeDe

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Apr 9, 2002
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great info and plays..question, do you have opinion on the Iowa game..thanks and continued luck
 
A

AR182

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thanks, guys. it's greatly appreciated.

dede,

i took penn. st.for a few reasons...... their defense is very good vs. the pass & with iowa having multiple injuries at running back, i think they will have to pass more.... they are getting robinson back, who probably is their best player on offense,....... & i think iowa comes in flat for this game coming off their game last week vs. ohio st........additionally, iowa is not playing well on the road.

good luck with whoever you play.
 
D

DeDe

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thanks for the reply..follow alot of your plays
good luck!
 
trolln4walii

trolln4walii

shorelunchne1
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Jul 11, 2004
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Great info AR. GL on your plays this week. Really like Stanford and the NCSt under. I know Auburn, Tex A&M, and Utah are good plays, I just find it too hard to lay that many points. BOL on all of these - hope they come through like all of last weeks :)
 
A

AR182

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Nov 9, 2000
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thanks guys.

adding....all for 2*......

lsu-21(140)
nevada-2(124)
oregon st.-6.5(120)
penn. st.-2
c. mich+25
n. mex. st.+10
teasers.....

ind.+21
u52.5 ind./osu

md.+11
n.w.+20


good luck.
 
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