Saturday NCAA

IntenseOperator

IntenseOperator

DeweyOxburger
Forum Member
Sep 16, 2003
17,897
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Chicago
30-20 NCAA

I'm going to throw some games I like here. Comments are more than welcome.

I'll post my definite plays with lines when my locals put them up.

I have a bad tendency to create Cinderella out of a sow's ear. :)

Friday night take...
I read a rumor elsewhere on the net that Mr Chang has shown an interest in the Vegas line for Hawaii games. Thought is that he may have thrown a couple. There is also a train of thought that says to take the dog in these high scoring affairs. I can't play a team that is this bad defensively. Both teams played UTEP on the road. Haw had 51 laid on them while B St allowed only 31. Each team gave up 4 turnovers. Boise scoring 44 pts/game against better defenses while Haw allows almost 33 against much weaker, 46 in their two road games. Boise may hit 70 here on their own.

I also try to stay away from games with a ton of line movement.
 
Irish

Irish

Green&Orange
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Jan 8, 2004
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Hawaii's defense is outright terrible. Abraham Elimimian and Ikaika Curnan are there only respectable (use this term loosely) defensive players. They are both nursing injuries along with 2 other "good' Hawaii defensive players LB Tanuvasa Moe, CB Kenny Patton. On the D-Line The warriors are without Mel Purcell and DL Matt Faga. Purcell is Hawaii's best pass rusher. So you take a terrible defense subtract their best pass rusher and put a hitch in the giddy-up of 4 starters....How do you say trouble in Samoan?

Still I took the under cause I think Bosie will wear themselves out after 50 points.

GL
Irish
 
K

Kdogg21

who?
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Dec 8, 2001
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good point operator. waiting to see what my local has it at too. probably leaning towards the under but if he has it at below 72 im not touching it. leaning with boise st if the line is right as well. good luck
 
IntenseOperator

IntenseOperator

DeweyOxburger
Forum Member
Sep 16, 2003
17,897
63
0
Chicago
Think I got my 1st one here for the Saturday card.

I think NC St may still be kicking the dirt after getting shelled last week against Miami. Off a home loss, St is 10-14 SU. Off a home loss to a conference rival, they are 8-12 SU. They were suppose to maybe catch a team offguard and pull out an upset win. I think the linesmakers are wrong here, and money in Vegas is also betting this one down. NC St has done well on the road against Clemson and also has won the last two matchups. The more veteran laiden Clemson team will know this. St will rely heavily on the run against a very strong Clemson run D that has been very successful against better running teams than what St will bring. Over the last three games, Clemson has greatly improved in the turnover department where as St has been getting worse giving it up 4 times last week at home. In a trench battle as this will be, turnovers are going to rule the outcome. Even though Clemson is coming off a win, it was nothing to hang their hat on and the staff should have no trouble getting these guys up for this home game against a team that has beaten them the last two years running. As a home dog, Clemson is 19-13 SU, 12-7 ATS, while St is 15-13 SU, 9-19 ATS as a road fav. After allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games, Clemson is 12-0 SU. This tells me when their pass defense is kicking ass and complimenting this phenomenal run D, they are clicking on all cylinders. Clemson has a monster over the hill with Miami on the road coming up. They will definitely want to win this home game before going into that one.

Clemson +points :)

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Clemson +(1-)
 
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IntenseOperator

IntenseOperator

DeweyOxburger
Forum Member
Sep 16, 2003
17,897
63
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Chicago
I think Ok is in a tough spot tomorrow. They don't do well on turf and haven't done well coming off very successful one-sided wins. As I have stated, DD home dogs in October do very well. Ok has played much tougher to this point and could blow out St here. St hasn't done too well off upset road wins and they may not bring enough to this game. It's a matter of how much Ok wants it. St doesn't turn the ball over much and Ok will be happy to grind it out against this offense. Most likely a pass for me. Ok almost lost their last road game to K St so that may be why the line is moving up here.
 
IntenseOperator

IntenseOperator

DeweyOxburger
Forum Member
Sep 16, 2003
17,897
63
0
Chicago
Think I got my 2nd one.

I think you'll see a lot of people jumping on Fl getting the TD. Fl is in a tough spot here IMO. They have not done well coming off the type of loss they had last week. The more veteran team Georgia has is well aware of their recent history with Fl. I think the coaching bs serves as a bad distraction and not a benifit to the Fl players. Georgia has done better on nuetral fields, esp as the fav. Fl a perfect 6-0 as an in conference dog, the Gators have owned the Bulldogs in recent years, going 13-1 SU since 1990, yet this line moves up. Georgia lost to a Tennessee team that Fl had a victory basically stolen from them against. The problem was Georgia just came off a monster win against LSU and couldn't bring it that day. Goergia played against tougher defenses in their road games than FL faced. If Georgia can hang onto the ball, they should do well against a FL team that gives up 34 on the road, and 25 in conference games.

Georgia -the wood

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Georgia -(6-)
 
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IntenseOperator

IntenseOperator

DeweyOxburger
Forum Member
Sep 16, 2003
17,897
63
0
Chicago
Located #3

Auburn is coming off 3 blowouts against weaker competition with Georgia and Bama on deck. Good chance they look past this Ole Miss team that is coming off a close game with the fat man and the Vols. Miss has played the stronger schedule to this point and isn't going to run and hide here. They gave up the ball three times last week at home, where they usually take much better care of things. Each of these teams actually played Tennessee, with the Tigers blowing the Vols away with the help of six turnovers. Ole Miss kept it close despite not being able to gain an advantage in the turnover department. Despite a possible revenge factor with the stronger team coming in and blowing away their opponent, the line drops. Ole Miss has been poor ATS at home so far this year. All those ATS loses were as the fav. The lone home dog situation against Tennessee, they covered, against my own wishes, thanks to afor mentioned fat man.

Ole Miss +points at home
 
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