my own polling numbers

[Master Capper]

Just out of curiosity I plugged in a ton of numbers into a program that I use for basketball and football just to see how close I could come to the final result:


Popular Vote (margin of error +/- 1.5%)

Bush 48.9%
Kerry 47.7%
Nader 1.8%
all others 1.6%

Electoral Vote (margin of error +/- 9 votes)
Bush 293
Kerry 247

 

[pirate fan]

MC, I know your heart is with Kerry, but I hope your money wins. It is going to be interesting anyhow. I am looking forward to this being over. :clap:

 

[Master Capper]

Yeah Pirate Fan, I cant wait for this thing to be history! My heart is really not with Kerry as I dont see him doing much either but unfortunately in 2000 I made the error of voting for Bush and he has just been terrible and I cannot forsee his administration doing much better with four more years. It's a shame in a country as large as ours that we cannot find two men to run for office that are actually qualified! One sidenote on my numbers, Kerry's numbers were not higher because I do not believe that the Dem's are going to be capable of actually getting the vote out! If they were able to get the vote out then I really dont think Bush would really have much chance of winning the electoral college but judging by past elections the Dems have usually been very sloppy in getting the vote out and I see no reason to beleive that this will change.

 

[ocelot]

GOP COULD have had John McCain - but as usual they chose the LOW road.

By the way, saw a bumper sticker:

"The road to hell is paved with dead Republicans". How true.

 

[Master Capper]

Ocelot,

At one point in my life I was a great believe in Ronald Reagan and still to this day think he was a awesome President and so I tilted towards the Republicans. As the years have passed I have seen this party take a terrible turn towards the dark side to the point that they cast out judgments against others while at the same time they are doing the same thing. For example, when Clinton was wrapped up with the Monica situation the Republicans were all for impeaching him and they were talking about what a sin it was that he had committed. Then Larry Flynt whom is a scumbag steps up to the plate and begins exposing these same guys that were calling out Clinton for the same thing they were doing which absolutely blew my mind. Dont waste your time telling me that he lied under oath as what I am talking about happened even before the Starr investigation. Just like Strom Thurmond heres a guy that was a complete racist but had a black child that was kept from the public for years which is absolutely amazing the height of hypocrisy!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

MC thought this was interesting While sportbook players are backing bush/poker players are backing kerry however sports book players are evidently hedging of late.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041101/ukm013_1.html

 

[Master Capper]

good read dogs, who the hell knows which way this thing is going to go but at this point I dont think it would be wise or worth it to me to hedge off my Bush bet. Dogs, what I find really strange is if you go to the link I posted earlier today of the electoral page and scan down the site near the bottom is a comparison chart of where the campaigns of Bush and Gore stood at this same time four years ago. If you look closely Kerry is in much better shape than Gore was at this time four years ago but most of those (all but one) had Bush beating gore in the popular vote as most had him ahead by 3 to 5 percent so where did all of these last minutes votes come from on Gore to garner him the popular vote? I tried to think back to four years ago but at the time I really wasnt paying much attention as I had decided to vote Bush way early in the election so I cant answer where all these last minute votes came for on gore!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

MC This is the wierdest election to peg in my thinking.Every time I think I got a good take--new headline or events come out and things move opposite to how I think they will. I think it will hinge on voter turnout and along those lines something I think ironic is
NYT/CBS lastest poll slant toward bush while Fox slants toward Kerry if, in relation to poll averages. Is it possible each would play with the numbers to get their people out to vote??

 

[Master Capper]

Well I think you may be onto something as we both know that CBS is very biased towards the left and Fox News is owned by the right! When I saw that Fox News poll my eyes nearly bulged out of my head when I saw they had Kerry leading as the previous polls from them have always had Bush up by 5% or higher.

 

[Master Capper]

dogs,


If you get a chance here is a article in line with what you posted:

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle....SCRBAE0CFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=6678302

In summary: It states that energy purchasers spectulators have begun to bid on shares of Kerry over Bush!

 

[pirate fan]

This is kind of exciting as I really don't know who to believe anymore. I have heard so much crap only the election itself will tell the true story. I really pray there are no lawsuits or complaints of election fraud(wishful thinking on my part) by either party. Whoever wins, we as a country really need to get behind the leader of the greatest nation in the world and become unified once more. This election as really brought out the worst in people.